Remember when everyone just assumed that going to college was the only smart move after high school? Yeah, me too. But sometime over the last few years that certainty started cracking, and now the cracks have turned into canyons.
I keep thinking about my neighbor’s kid who graduated last spring with a 3.9 GPA, glowing recommendation letters, and a full ride scholarship… only to spend six months applying to hundreds of jobs and finally landing something that barely requires the degree he just spent four years earning. Stories like his aren’t rare anymore. They’re becoming the new normal.
The Quiet Collapse Nobody Wants to Talk About
Something strange is happening on campuses across the country, and the numbers are honestly shocking once you start looking closely.
Take math readiness, for example. At one major public university system, the share of incoming freshmen testing below high school level in mathematics didn’t just grow—it exploded almost thirty times larger in just five years. We’re talking about students who graduated near the top of their high school class but can’t handle college algebra without serious remediation. And roughly seven out of ten of those needing help are actually performing below where they should have been in middle school.
How does that even happen? Part of it traces back to pandemic school closures, sure. But the bigger culprits seem to be the widespread removal of meaningful standardized testing and a tidal wave of grade inflation that makes everyone feel great right up until reality hits.
The GPA Mirage
High school GPAs keep climbing, yet actual mastery keeps sliding. Students who need remedial coursework now show up with average GPAs comfortably above 3.6. Ten years ago that same group averaged closer to 3.4. Schools hand out A’s and B’s like participation trophies, and everyone pretends the transcript tells the real story.
Some of the most prestigious private universities have taken this to another level. Reports from inside a couple of Ivy League schools show that more than three-quarters of all grades awarded in recent years are in the A range. The median graduating GPA at places that once prided themselves on rigor now sits above 3.8. When almost everyone is “excellent,” the word stops meaning anything.
When 80% of students receive an A or A-, the grade ceases to be a measure of achievement and becomes a customer-satisfaction metric.
Enrollment Is Already Falling—And It’s About to Get Worse
Fewer families are buying the old story. Undergraduate enrollment peaked around 2010 and has been sliding ever since. Last year the total sat roughly 8% below that high-water mark, and demographic projections suggest another steep drop over the next decade and a half.
Colleges feel the pressure. Some state systems are now automatically admitting students who earned C’s in college-prep classes—no application required—and many have completely dropped standardized test requirements. The goal isn’t excellence anymore; it’s simply filling seats.
The Job Market Reality Check
Even for those who do everything “right” and graduate, the white-collar job market has turned brutal. Recent labor statistics show the unemployment rate for recent bachelor’s degree holders spiking in ways we normally only see during recessions. One age bracket—20 to 24-year-olds with fresh diplomas—saw joblessness jump above 9%.
At the same time, degree holders now make up a record share of the overall unemployed population. That’s not because tradespeople or high-school graduates are suddenly flooding the unemployment lines; it’s because many traditional “college jobs” either disappeared in the last recession or are now handled by technology or offshore teams.
The Real Cost Is Staggering When You Add Everything Up
Let’s talk money, because this is where the conversation usually gets uncomfortable.
The published sticker price for one year at a private university often hovers around $58,000 if you live on campus. Public universities look cheaper on paper, but once you factor in living expenses, books, and fees, many students still pay north of $38,000 annually.
Four years of that is already frightening, but the true lifetime cost is worse. Add in interest on student loans and the income you didn’t earn while studying full-time instead of working, and some economists now peg the all-in price of the average bachelor’s degree at more than half a million dollars.
- Four years of tuition, room, and board
- Interest accruing on loans for a decade or more
- Lost wages compared to someone who started working at 18
- Opportunity cost of skills you never learned on the job
When you run those numbers, a lot of degrees simply don’t pencil out anymore.
Better Paths Are Already Here
The good news? Alternatives have never been more accessible or more respected by employers.
Registered apprenticeship programs, for instance, let you earn a solid paycheck—often $50,000 or more in the first year—while learning high-demand trades like advanced manufacturing, plumbing, electrical work, or even cybersecurity and healthcare IT. Many come with zero debt and a guaranteed job at the end.
Companies themselves are getting creative. Some large manufacturers partner directly with community colleges to create two-year programs that blend paid work and classroom training. Graduates walk away with an associate degree, several years of real experience, and no debt. Starting salaries frequently beat what many four-year graduates earn.
Then there are the newer “earn-and-learn” models popping up in cities nationwide. One program in Philadelphia pays high-school students while they train in fields like construction technology and advanced machining. Another in the Midwest lets apprentices start as early as junior year of high school and graduate with both a diploma and industry credentials.
What Should Families Actually Do?
Every situation is different, of course. If your teenager dreams of becoming a doctor, engineer, or lawyer, the traditional path still makes sense. But for the majority of students who aren’t dead-set on a profession that legally requires a degree, the conversation needs to change.
Start asking hard questions sophomore or junior year of high school:
- What careers actually interest my child?
- Which of those careers require a four-year degree and which don’t?
- What would four to six years of earnings look like if they started working or training right after graduation?
- How much debt is reasonable for the income we can realistically expect?
Run the numbers together. Talk to people already working in the fields your child finds interesting. Visit a job site or an apprenticeship information session. The answers are often eye-opening.
In my own circle, I’ve watched kids skip the traditional route and come out ahead. One young man I know turned down a partial scholarship to a state university and instead entered a paid electrical apprenticeship. Four years later he owns a truck outright, has zero debt, and clears more than most of his college friends who are still paying off loans.
Another friend’s daughter spent two years at community college while working part-time in a medical office, transferred those credits into a specialized healthcare administration program sponsored by a large hospital system, and graduated debt-free into a $70,000 starting position.
These aren’t outliers anymore. They’re the new playbook.
The bottom line is simple: a college degree is a tool, not a trophy. If the tool no longer does the job efficiently—or costs far more than the value it delivers—it’s okay to choose something else.
Millions of young people and their families are already making that choice. The question is whether the rest of us are ready to admit the old assumptions no longer hold.
