Have you ever owned a stock that felt almost bulletproof for years, only to watch it suddenly bleed 30% while everything around it keeps climbing?
That’s exactly where Jim Cramer finds himself right now with Costco.
And when someone who has called Costco “one of the greatest performing stocks of all time” starts using phrases like “I may need to reevaluate,” you know, it stops you in your tracks.
A Tale of Two Retail Giants
Let’s be brutally honest: 2025 has not been kind to Costco shareholders.
Year-to-date the stock is down more than 30%, while its arch-rival Walmart has powered ahead with a 26% gain. Same consumer, same economy, completely different outcomes.
I’ve watched this unfold with a mix of disbelief and frustration, because Costco always felt like the “better” retailer – higher margins, fiercely loyal membership base, that unbeatable combination of treasure-hunt excitement and everyday essentials.
So what changed?
Cramer pointed the finger at relative performance. When money rotates out of yesterday’s winners and into new leadership, even the strongest names can get caught in the crossfire.
But 30%? That starts to feel personal.
The Moment of Truth Arrives Thursday
Costco reports fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the close on Thursday, and the entire investing community is holding its breath.
Cramer made it clear: he does not want to sell. He’s been a long-time bull for good reason. Yet he also can’t ignore the tape.
“If it keeps going down, I will have to reevaluate.”
– Jim Cramer, December 9 2025
Translation: management better bring receipts.
Investors will be laser-focused on renewal rates, traffic trends, margin pressure from potential membership-fee pushback, and any commentary around the consumer slowdown that seems to be hitting the higher-income cohort harder than expected.
One bad quarter wouldn’t kill the thesis, but a bad quarter that confirms a “new normal” of slower growth absolutely could.
Meanwhile, a Million-Dollar Vote of Confidence
Flip over to the industrial gas giant Linde, and you see the exact opposite body language.
Shares touched a fresh 52-week low Monday at $387.78 and have shed roughly 18% since early October. Ugly, no question.
But Tuesday morning, an SEC filing dropped: CEO Sanjiv Lamba personally bought 2,520 shares around $396 – roughly $1 million out of his own pocket.
This isn’t some token 100-share purchase for optics. It’s real money at the exact moment when the stock looks its worst.
The last time Lamba bought was March 2022 at $268. That trade is already up almost 50% before Tuesday’s purchase.
- Insider buying at multi-year lows
- Significant dollar amount
- Repeat buyer with a winning track record
When those three boxes get checked, smart money tends to pay attention.
Portfolio analyst Jeff Marks summed it up perfectly: this could be a sign that “the stock price action might be wrong and the business is actually holding up better than the market thinks.”
In my experience, that sentence has preceded some of the best risk/reward setups in the market.
The Fed Wildcard Nobody Can Ignore
Looming over everything is tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision.
Another 25-basis-point cut is essentially baked in – the third of 2025 – and Cramer called it “gigantic” for rate-sensitive names like Home Depot.
Lower rates tend to:
- Boost housing turnover → more big-ticket purchases
- Reduce borrowing costs for retailers carrying inventory
- Support higher valuations for long-duration growth stocks
Costco actually benefits on multiple fronts here, yet the stock has completely ignored the tailwind so far. That disconnect is either a screaming opportunity or a warning that something deeper is broken.
Nvidia Gets a Surprise China Gift
Speaking of tailwinds, Nvidia caught a massive one Tuesday.
President Trump confirmed the administration will allow sales of H200 chips to approved Chinese customers – provided the U.S. gets a 25% cut.
Wells Fargo quickly ran the numbers: potentially $25–30 billion in additional annual revenue and $0.60–$0.70 in EPS.
That’s not life-changing for a $3 trillion company, but it’s a very nice “found money” surprise at a time when investors were bracing for the exact opposite.
Cramer’s take was classic: “We’re not banking on China, but it’s a bonus if it happens.”
Under-promise, over-deliver – the Nvidia way.
What I’m Watching This Week
Putting it all together, here’s my personal checklist for the next 72 hours:
- Fed decision Wednesday – tone of Powell’s press conference matters almost as much as the cut itself
- Costco earnings Thursday – are comps decelerating or stabilizing? Any hint on membership fee timing?
- Linde price action – does the insider buy stop the bleeding or do we test the lows again?
- Breadth – are rate-sensitive and industrial names finally waking up?
We’re at one of those inflection points where a single week can flip six months of narrative.
Costco could remind everyone why it’s been a compounder for decades, or it could validate the bears and force a painful reevaluation.
Linde could embark on a stealth rally led by the smartest investor in the room – its own CEO.
And the broader market could finally give the green light to names that have been unfairly punished in the rotation.
Either way, it’s going to be fascinating.
I’ll be glued to the screen – and I suspect I won’t be alone.
Disclosure: Author holds no positions in the stocks mentioned but watches this rotation closely for future opportunities.
