Mornings like this always feel a little electric, don’t they?
The market’s hanging in suspense, waiting for the Fed’s next words tomorrow like teenagers waiting for concert tickets. Everyone knows a 25-basis-point cut is basically priced in (89% according to the futures), but we all remember how quickly “priced in” can become “panicked out” if the statement has even a hint of hesitation about 2026.
Meanwhile, Jim Cramer dropped his morning list of the ten things actually worth watching today, and honestly, some of these points made me sit up straight. Let me walk you through them my way, because a few of these could move your portfolio more than the Fed statement itself.
What Really Caught My Eye This Morning
1. The Calm Before the Fed Storm
Futures are basically flat, which feels about right. Yesterday’s dip got bought quietly, and nobody wants to be too heroic ahead of the announcement. I’ve found that the real move often comes after the press conference, not the statement itself. Keep an eye on how Powell answers questions about balance-sheet runoff; that’s where the real clues about 2026 hide.
2. Nvidia Just Got a Very Strange Gift From Trump
Okay, this one is wild. President Trump basically said Nvidia can ship its H200 AI chips to certain Chinese customers… as long as the U.S. government gets a 25% cut. Yes, you read that right, like a royalty payment.
Wells Fargo called it an “incremental positive,” which feels like the understatement of the year. Shares popped 1% pre-market, but here’s my question: will Chinese data-center operators actually buy them knowing Uncle Sam is taking a bite? Pride is a real thing in business, especially across borders.
The big unknown isn’t Washington anymore; it’s whether Beijing’s customers are willing to pay a “Trump tax” on American silicon.
3. Danaher Finally Gets Some Love
Goldman Sachs started coverage on Danaher with a Buy and $265 target. About time, frankly. This has been one of the most hated large-cap life-science names for two years, and the Charitable Trust owns it for exactly that reason.
Yes, drug-discovery budgets are still soft, but Goldman’s point about bioprocessing stability is spot-on. When the eventual recovery comes (and it always does), Danaher’s operating leverage is ridiculous. Just don’t expect it tomorrow; these cycles move like glaciers.
4. PepsiCo Bows to Elliott, But Does It Matter?
Elliott’s $4 billion stake finally bore fruit: Pepsi agreed to aggressive cost cuts and, interestingly, price reductions. Usually activists want higher prices, so this feels different.
But 2026 is the year Medicare starts negotiating GLP-1 drug prices, which means Ozempic and Mounjaro will likely get covered widely. Translation: millions of Americans might literally eat fewer Doritos. I’ve been pounding the table on this risk for months; snacks and soda stocks feel dangerously complacent.
5. Eaton Keeps Collecting Upgrades
Wolfe went to Outperform, Deutsche called it a top 2026 pick yesterday, and honestly, who can blame them? Eaton sits dead center of both the data-center boom and the grid-hardening megatrend.
- Electrical backlog conversion accelerating
- Hyperscalers still spending like drunk sailors
- Re-shoring manufacturing needs massive power upgrades
At $413 target feels conservative when you think three years out. This is quietly becoming one of the best compounders in industrials.
6. Nike: Pain Now, Gain Later?
Citi cut their target to $70 (yikes) but kept Neutral. They expect a Q2 earnings beat but weak Q3 guidance, which feels exactly right for where we are in the turnaround.
Look, new CEO Elliott Hill is doing the hard stuff: killing sacred cows, cleaning up channel inventory, bringing back focus on sport. These things hurt sales for 12-18 months and then explode higher. I’ve seen this movie with Best Buy, with Target, with countless others. The patient get paid.
7. Cruise Lines: Not All Boats Rise Equally
Goldman upgraded Viking to Buy ($78 target) while downgrading Norwegian and trimming Royal Caribbean. The thesis makes sense: Viking’s premium/expedition focus insulates it from the coming Caribbean capacity flood.
I’ve been on a Viking ocean ship; the difference in clientele is night and day. They’re selling experiences to people who don’t blink at $15 cocktails. Norwegian? Spring-break drunks and nickel-and-diming. Easy choice for 2026-2027.
8. Adobe’s AI Overhang Might Finally Lift
Stifel trimmed to $450 but kept Buy ahead of tomorrow’s print. The bear case has been “Firefly kills creative jobs, therefore kills Adobe revenue.” That thesis is starting to crack.
Creative teams aren’t disappearing; they’re getting 10x more productive. Adobe went from zero to $100M+ Firefly revenue in basically one quarter. The multiple should expand as the market realizes this is augmentation, not replacement.
9. Home Depot Throws Cold Water
Their investor day guidance was, shall we say, realistic. Same story as Toll Brothers told last week: high mortgage rates = frozen housing market = weak big-ticket spending.
Nothing new here, but a reminder that not every stock benefits from lower rates immediately. Home Depot needs 5 handles on the 30-year to really 4 handles to get turnover moving again.
10. Marvell: Amazon Rumor Control
Stifel basically called the “Amazon dropping Marvell for internal silicon” rumor nonsense without naming names. Shares bounced after yesterday’s ugly 7% drop.
Custom silicon relationships are sticky as hell. Amazon spent billions developing with Marvell; they’re not ripping that out because Broadcom had a good sales pitch. These rumors pop up every earnings season and almost never amount to anything.
The Bottom Line This Morning
We’re in that weird phase where macro (the Fed) feels like it matters most, but individual stock moves are being driven by very specific micro stories. Nvidia’s China royalty, Eaton’s electrical backlog, Viking’s premium moat, Nike’s painful but necessary reset.
In my experience, these are exactly the environments where patient stock-pickers outperform. The index might be boring tomorrow, but underneath the hood, money is rotating fast.
Stay nimble, keep some powder dry for whatever the Fed serves up, and remember: the best opportunities usually show up when everyone else is glued to the Powell press conference.
See you at the opening bell.
