Remember when every single Federal Reserve whisper used to send Bitcoin flying or crashing twenty percent in a day? Those days feel almost nostalgic now. Lately the market has been pricing in a December rate cut like it’s the second coming of 2021’s bull run, yet one very famous shark just poured ice water on the whole narrative.
Kevin O’Leary, the guy who can make grown entrepreneurs cry on national television, says even if the Fed does slash rates this month, Bitcoin probably isn’t going anywhere fast. His exact words? It’ll “drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction.” Coming from someone who has been vocally pro-Bitcoin for years, that’s the kind of statement that makes you sit up and listen.
Why One of the Loudest Crypto Bulls Suddenly Sounds Bored
I’ve followed Mr. Wonderful for a long time, and the man rarely minces words. When he says he’s not positioning his portfolio for a December cut, that carries weight. He’s not shorting Bitcoin—he’s simply saying the old “Fed cuts = moon” playbook might be getting a bit dusty.
His reasoning boils down to something pretty straightforward: inflation isn’t dead yet. Tariffs are starting to bite, input costs are creeping higher, and the Fed still has that pesky dual mandate—full employment and price stability. Cut too aggressively and you risk reigniting the inflation dragon everyone thought we slayed in 2023.
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December. I’m not investing that way.”
Kevin O’Leary, December 2025
The Market Disagrees—Big Time
Here’s where it gets interesting. While O’Leary shrugs, the CME FedWatch Tool is screaming the opposite. As of early December 2025, traders are assigning roughly 88% probability to a quarter-point cut at the next meeting. That’s a massive swing from just a couple of weeks ago when the odds dipped below 35%.
What changed? A few dovish comments from Fed officials—most notably New York Fed President John Williams hinting that cuts could come “in the near term” without derailing the inflation fight. Markets being markets, they immediately piled back into the “easy money” trade.
Bitcoin, true to form, tagged along for part of the ride. We saw a quick bounce from the mid-80s back toward $94,000 before settling into this weird sideways chop around $93,500. Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior—if the rumor ever actually materializes.
Has Bitcoin Grown Up?
Maybe the most fascinating takeaway from O’Leary’s comments isn’t about the Fed at all. It’s the subtle suggestion that Bitcoin might finally be maturing past its teenage “risk-on/risk-off” tantrums.
Think about it. In 2021, a single Jay Powell sentence could trigger a 30% swing. In 2022, every hike felt like a gut punch. Fast forward to late 2025 and we’re debating whether a 25-basis-point move will even register 5%. That’s either the sign of a market that’s pricing in everything already… or an asset that’s starting to behave less like a speculative meme and more like digital gold with a fixed supply.
I’m not saying correlation with equities is dead—far from it. But the violent knee-jerk reactions to every CPI print and dot-plot seem to be softening. And honestly? That feels healthy.
What Actually Moves Bitcoin These Days
If a Fed cut isn’t the catalyst everyone thinks it is, what is? O’Leary himself gives a clue in his recent posts—he’s far more excited about infrastructure than macro headlines.
- Spot ETF inflows (still massive despite the price stall)
- Corporate treasury adoption (MicroStrategy isn’t slowing down)
- Nation-state accumulation rumors
- Mining economics as we approach the next halving cycle
- Real-world payment rails quietly scaling (Strike, Cash App, etc.)
Those are the trends that keep me up at night—in a good way. Macro still matters, but it feels increasingly like background noise compared to on-chain fundamentals and institutional adoption curves.
So Should You Care About December At All?
Yes and no.
If the Fed surprises and pauses, we’ll probably see a quick 8-12% flush lower. Old habits die hard, and algos still love selling “hawkish surprise.” But O’Leary’s broader point stands: the downside should be limited and short-lived. $80K has become psychological magnet support for a reason.
If they do cut? Great, we might poke toward $100K into year-end on momentum and seasonal strength. But don’t expect 2021-style parabolic moves. The low-hanging fruit has been picked.
“I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction.”
That quote is going to age either brilliantly or terribly. I’m leaning toward brilliantly, if only because the market has already front-run the cut so aggressively.
The Bottom Line for Crypto Investors
Here’s what I’m taking away from all this:
- Don’t bet the farm on a single FOMC meeting anymore. The era of 50% swings off Powell’s eyebrow raises feels behind us.
- Zoom out. Bitcoin at $93,500 after everything we’ve seen in 2025 is still absurdly strong in the big picture.
- Focus on what actually compounds: custody solutions, yield products, infrastructure exposure, and continued accumulation.
- Let the macro tourists chase every dot-plot wiggle. The rest of us have blocks to stack.
Kevin O’Leary might be the guy who tells founders their idea is crap on TV, but right now he’s delivering the kind of sober, slightly boring take the crypto market desperately needs. Bitcoin drifting in a 5% range through December would actually be one of the healthiest things that could happen.
Because boring, in this game, usually comes right before the next leg up.
Whatever the Fed does in a couple of weeks, the broader trend remains intact. The sharks who have been around the block aren’t panicking—and maybe that’s the best signal of all.
