Have you ever watched a stock climb steadily while the broader market just muddles along, and wondered what’s really driving that outperformance? That’s exactly what’s been happening with one major player in the casino world this year. It’s up around 27% while the S&P 500 has managed about half that. And now, a major Wall Street firm is saying the best could still be ahead.
I’ve always found the gaming industry fascinating—it’s part entertainment, part economics, and a whole lot of psychology. When regions recover and people start traveling again, casino operators often get a massive tailwind. That seems to be the story unfolding right now in Asia, and it’s catching the attention of some pretty sharp analysts.
A Fresh Vote of Confidence from Wall Street
Recently, analysts at a leading investment bank decided it was time to get more bullish on this casino giant. They moved their rating from neutral straight to buy and slapped on a price target that suggests another 23% upside from current levels. That’s not pocket change—we’re talking about a company already riding high.
What caught my eye is how specific their reasoning feels. It isn’t just vague optimism about “recovery.” They’re pointing to real, measurable trends in two key markets that make up the bulk of the company’s earnings power. In my experience following these kinds of calls, when the thesis is this grounded, it often pays to pay attention.
Macao: The Engine That’s Roaring Back
Let’s start with Macao, the gambling mecca of Asia. For years it’s been the heavyweight champion of global casino revenue, and after a few tough stretches, things are looking decidedly upbeat again.
Gross gaming revenue—the total amount wagered minus winnings paid out—has been accelerating in a way that feels sustainable rather than fleeting. Several factors are lining up nicely:
- A packed calendar of events drawing visitors
- A firmer Chinese currency making travel more appealing
- Easing visa rules for nearby provinces
- Growing preference among Chinese tourists for Macao over other destinations
- Rising domestic stock markets boosting consumer confidence
Put all that together and you get crowds returning in force. Interestingly, the company has responded by becoming a bit more aggressive with promotions, especially for premium mass players—those high-value customers who aren’t quite VIPs but still spend seriously. Management hinted earlier this year that they needed to step up direct incentives, and it looks like they’ve followed through.
Perhaps the most encouraging part? This isn’t just a short-term blip. Analysts are describing the growth as sustainable, which is music to any investor’s ears.
As the market has shown signs of sustained growth, the operator has increased promotional activity and adjusted reinvestment rates to stay competitive with peers.
That kind of strategic shift rarely happens overnight. It tells me leadership is reading the room correctly and positioning the business to capture more share in a growing pie.
Singapore: Firing on All Cylinders
If Macao is the volume leader, Singapore plays the premium role. The iconic Marina Bay Sands property has become synonymous with luxury gaming in Asia, and right now it feels like everything is clicking.
Analysts expect gross gaming revenue here to hit all-time highs next year—potentially 50% above pre-pandemic levels. That’s remarkable when you think about it. Most industries would love to simply get back to 2019 numbers; this market is blowing past them.
Several quarters of strong EBITDA growth—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—have proven the operation can consistently deliver in the high $2 billion to low $3 billion range annually. For a single integrated resort, that’s impressive firepower.
And the future looks even brighter. There’s a massive $8 billion expansion underway right next door—think new towers, entertainment venues, the works. Over time, this could meaningfully boost capacity for both VIP and premium mass segments, letting the company grab an even larger slice of Singapore’s lucrative market.
In my view, expansions like this are where patient investors often get rewarded. The upfront spending weighs on near-term numbers, but once the new assets start contributing, the earnings leverage can be substantial.
Capital Returns: Keeping Shareholders Happy
One aspect that doesn’t get enough attention with growth stories is how companies treat existing shareholders during heavy investment periods. Too often, dividends get cut or buybacks paused.
That doesn’t appear to be the case here. Even with billions flowing into the Singapore project, analysts believe the company can maintain roughly $2 billion in annual share repurchases. That’s a meaningful commitment—essentially shrinking the share count while funding growth initiatives.
When management can pull off that balancing act, it sends a strong signal of confidence in cash flow generation. I’ve seen companies that prioritize returns during capex-heavy phases outperform over the long haul.
How Does This Stack Up Against the Broader Market?
It’s worth zooming out for perspective. The S&P 500 has had a solid run this year, but this casino stock has lapped it by a wide margin. Part of that outperformance likely came from low expectations heading into 2025—post-pandemic recovery was uneven, and macro worries lingered.
Now the narrative is shifting. Instead of “will Asia recover?” the question has become “how much market share can this operator capture in a robust environment?” That’s a much more pleasant conversation for shareholders.
Of course, no investment is without risks. Geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, or a sudden slowdown in Chinese consumer spending could throw sand in the gears. But the current setup—with multiple demand drivers aligning—feels constructive.
What This Means for Investors Looking Ahead
If you’re building a portfolio focused on global growth themes, the Asian consumer rebound is hard to ignore. Gaming might not be the first sector that comes to mind, but the numbers don’t lie—when travel and discretionary spending pick up in the region, casino operators often benefit disproportionately.
Personally, I like names that combine defensive cash flows (people gamble in good times and bad) with cyclical upside when economies improve. This one seems to check both boxes right now.
The upgraded price target implies decent appreciation potential, but even if the stock simply holds these levels while continuing buybacks, the total return profile looks attractive. Add in the long-term kicker from the Singapore expansion, and you have multiple ways to win.
Naturally, everyone’s risk tolerance and time horizon differ. But for those comfortable with some international exposure and sector-specific quirks, this could be a name worth researching further.
At the end of the day, stock picking often comes down to identifying where reality is exceeding expectations. Right now, in the heart of Asia’s gaming markets, that seems to be exactly what’s happening. Whether that momentum carries into 2026 and beyond will be fascinating to watch—but the early signs are undeniably positive.
Investing always involves uncertainty, yet sometimes the setup is compelling enough to warrant a closer look. This feels like one of those moments.
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