Have you ever watched money just… disappear?
Not in a crash. Not even in a bear market. But quietly, day after day, as people chase the latest shiny thing that promises to make them rich tomorrow. I have. And right now, in late 2025, I’m seeing the same patterns that made me lose sleep twenty-five years ago.
Everyone’s obsessed with whether the big tech companies are spending too much on AI. Fair question. But the truth is, that’s not what keeps me up at night anymore.
The real problem – the one nobody wants to talk about seriously – is the absolute explosion of pure speculation masquerading as investing.
The Speculation Monster Nobody Wants to Name
Let me paint you a picture that’s becoming disturbingly familiar.
There’s this weird universe of assets that all seem to move together, even though they have almost nothing in common fundamentally. A quantum computing company that hasn’t produced revenue in years will gap up 15% because some crypto token pumped overnight. A failed battery company from a decade ago suddenly becomes “the AI power solution” and doubles in a week. Uranium miners – actual uranium miners – trade like growth stocks because someone, somewhere, decided data centers need nuclear power.
And the craziest part? Nobody can explain why these things move together. Not really.
But they do. Every single day.
The New Speculative Ecosystem
Here’s what’s actually happening, whether the financial media wants to admit it or not:
- Billions flowing into triple-leveraged ETFs that promise 3x the move of… whatever
- Zero-day options trading that’s basically legal gambling with better graphics
- Crypto-related stocks that move with Bitcoin’s mood swings, not their actual business
- Companies that were dead in the water five years ago, suddenly resurrected as “AI plays”
- Quantum computing firms that might – maybe, possibly, someday – make current computing obsolete
- Power generation companies of every flavor, all because data centers need electricity
This isn’t investing. This is a giant, interconnected speculation machine that’s sucking in a whole new generation of investors.
And the worst part? The professionals know exactly what they’re doing.
Why This Feels Like 1999 All Over Again
Remember the dot-com bubble? Of course you do. Everyone does. We all swore “never again.”
But here’s the thing nobody wants to say out loud: this time might actually be worse.
Back in 1999-2000, at least the companies going public had some connection to the internet revolution. Pets.com was ridiculous, yes, but it was actually trying to sell pet supplies online. There was a thread – however thin – connecting the speculation to actual technological change.
Today? Many of these speculative vehicles have no such connection.
They’re just… stories. Stories that move together because retail traders have decided they move together. Stories that the big firms are happy to package into ETFs and derivatives because they generate massive fees.
The money just goes round and round in this cul-de-sac until, eventually, it’s all gone.
That’s not my line. That’s essentially what one of the most respected voices in finance said recently, and I couldn’t agree more.
The AI Spending “Problem” Is a Red Herring
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room that everyone actually wants to talk about: AI capital expenditure.
Yes, the hyperscalers are spending obscene amounts of money building data centers. Yes, this has made some people nervous that we’re in another capex bubble.
But here’s what the doomsayers keep missing:
The companies buying these chips are already making money with them. Real money. Billions of dollars in new revenue that didn’t exist two years ago.
That’s the fundamental difference between today’s AI buildout and, say, the telecom buildout of the early 2000s. Those fiber optic networks largely sat empty. These data centers? They’re being used. Right now. Profitably.
Meanwhile, the speculative alternatives – the “what if we don’t need all this compute” plays – are burning through cash with no clear path to profitability.
The Real Alternatives Are Laughably Bad
Let’s go through some of these “alternatives” that are supposedly going to make traditional AI investment obsolete:
Natural gas for data centers? Sure, it’s part of the mix. But the idea that it’s going to replace the need for advanced chips is absurd.
Quantum computing? Look, I’m excited about it too. But the real work is being done by Google and IBM in heavily funded research labs, not by the public companies that trade like meme stocks.
Crypto everything? The entire edifice could come crashing down if one major player fails, and virtually no one is actually using crypto for real commerce despite years of promises.
These aren’t serious alternatives. They’re lottery tickets dressed up as investments.
The Wall Street Money Machine
And who’s enabling all of this?
The same firms that swore they’d learned their lesson after 2000. The same firms that now can’t create leveraged ETFs fast enough. The same firms that are perfectly happy to take fees from active ETFs that promise to beat the market (they won’t, historically).
They’ve figured out what retail wants: excitement. The chance to get rich quick. The dopamine hit of a 20% move in a day.
And they’re delivering it by the truckload.
Never mind that the long-term data shows this approach destroys wealth. Never mind that the only people who consistently make money are the ones collecting fees.
The quarters need to be made. The bonuses need to be paid.
A Better Way Forward
So what’s the alternative?
It’s boring. It’s old-fashioned. And it actually works.
Build a core portfolio of index funds. Add some individual growth stocks that you understand and believe in for the long term. Maybe – maybe – allocate a small portion to higher-risk ideas that could become the next big thing.
But treat that speculative portion like venture capital, not your main strategy. Because the truth is, most people who try to play the speculation game lose. Badly.
The information advantage that professionals had twenty years ago? It’s largely gone. Between fair disclosure rules and the democratization of information, individual investors can absolutely pick stocks successfully.
They just have to stop treating the stock market like a casino.
The Generational Wealth Transfer
Here’s what really worries me:
We’re about to see another generation of investors get completely wiped out. Just like in 2000-2002. Just like in 2008 with all the “can’t lose” real estate plays.
Except this time, they won’t have the excuse of not knowing better. We’ve seen this movie before. We know how it ends.
The people who will come out ahead aren’t the ones who caught the top of the latest speculative frenzy. They’re the ones who built real wealth, slowly and steadily, while everyone else was chasing the next 100x return.
Twenty-five years from now, we’ll be having this same conversation again. The names will be different. The technology will be different. But the pattern?
The pattern never changes.
The only question is whether you’ll be one of the people who learns from history, or one of the people who becomes another cautionary tale in it.
Choose wisely.
