December rolled in like it had something to prove. The first trading day of the month, the last month of the year, and suddenly every major bank decided it was time to empty the notebook. Some of the calls felt almost personal – the kind that make you sit up and reread twice because the price targets seem borderline crazy in the best possible way.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that the first Monday in December often sets the tone for the final sprint. This year felt different. Maybe it’s the AI hangover finally lifting, or perhaps the market just needed fresh narratives after a choppy autumn. Whatever the reason, the upgrades (and the few lonely downgrades) landed with real weight.
A Whirlwind Morning on the Street
Let’s be honest – most analyst note roundups read like a grocery list. Not today. Today had conviction, controversy, and more than a few eyebrow-raising targets. Here’s my take on the calls that actually matter as we head into the final stretch of 2025.
The AI Complex: Still Impossible to Ignore
Nvidia remains the stock everyone has an opinion about – including the people paid to have opinions. The split this morning was fascinating.
On one side you had Morgan Stanley lifting their target to $250, basically shrugging and saying the AI ramp still has years to run. They’re not wrong about the demand side; data center buildouts aren’t slowing down anytime soon. But then Seaport came out swinging with a rare Sell rating, arguing the competition is finally showing up in customer budgets. Their note read like someone who’s been watching pricing concessions pile up behind the scenes.
“These measures are not fully reflected in financials, but they are already material and look likely to grow significantly next year.”
Translation: discounts, bundling, whatever you want to call it – the era of taking every printed dollar might be ending. I’m not ready to join the bear camp yet, but that note made me pause. When even the bulls are debating margin compression instead of pure growth, the conversation has definitely matured.
Broadcom got love in the same breath – same bank, actually. New $443 target feels aggressive until you remember custom silicon programs rarely get canceled once they’re deep into design. The ASIC moat still looks wide.
Tesla’s Robotaxi Moment Feels Real
TD Cowen analysts piled into Tesla Cybercabs in Austin last week and came away genuinely impressed. Forty miles, complex scenarios with emergency vehicles and construction, priced at about a dollar a mile – that’s the kind of hands-on research note investors dream about.
Look, I remain skeptical about timelines – I’ve been burned before – but when a traditionally cautious firm says the rides were “impressive all around,” it carries weight. The gap between PowerPoint and pavement is narrowing faster than most expected.
Apple Quietly Building Momentum
JPMorgan’s iPhone tracker showed lead times ticking up right on cue with holiday demand. Nothing earth-shattering, but the fact that we’re still talking about lengthening lead times in the seventeenth generation of this product tells you everything about Apple’s pricing power.
In a world obsessed with the next big thing, sometimes the slowest moving glacier wins the race.
Amazon Web Services: The Gift That Keeps Giving
Oppenheimer’s new $305 target on Amazon didn’t come from retail margins or advertising – it came from reading the tea leaves on AWS capacity commentary. Their math suggests the cloud division alone could drive meaningful upside through 2027. That’s the kind of note that makes growth managers smile on a Monday morning.
Energy: Finally Some Love for Chevron
HSBC’s upgrade to Buy felt like the trade the market forgot existed. Chevron has lagged badly, partly on acquisition fears, partly on oil price anxiety. The note basically argued the negativity is overdone and any deal would likely be accretive. In a sector that’s been left for dead by many growth portfolios, that’s the kind of contrarian call that can age beautifully.
The Most Interesting New Names
Carvana at $450? Yes, really. UBS came out swinging with a fresh Buy rating, calling it best-in-class in a sector most wrote off years ago. The online used-car space has been a graveyard of burnt investors, but the survivors are starting to look like the department stores after the 2008 consolidation – ugly for a long time, then suddenly dominant.
Goldman added Wynn Resorts to their conviction buy list ahead of the UAE opening in 2027. When Goldman uses the word “transformative,” people listen. Between Vegas events, Macau recovery, and a completely new market, the setup actually looks asymmetric for once.
And then there’s WeRide – the Chinese robotaxi play that Bank of America thinks turns profitable by 2029. International expansion, scale advantages, and a platform approach that includes buses and street sweepers. It’s the kind of note that reminds you the robotaxi race isn’t just a California story.
What This All Means Heading Into Year-End
- AI infrastructure remains the dominant narrative, but cracks in the pricing story are appearing
- Robotaxi technology is progressing faster than regulatory timelines – classic disruption setup
- Old economy names like freight and energy are starting to screen cheap for a reason
- The bar for “best-in-class” keeps moving higher – survivors in battered sectors are getting religion from the Street
The most interesting part? Almost none of these calls were about 2026 earnings. They were about 2027, 2028, in some cases 2029. That’s what happens when growth gets expensive – the horizon stretches.
As someone who’s watched December upgrades come and go, this batch felt different. Less about window dressing, more about positioning for structural shifts that are finally showing up in the numbers. Whether the market agrees in the short term is anyone’s guess, but the conviction level was undeniably high.
One thing I’ve learned over the years: when the Street starts writing about 2029 profitability in December of 2025, either they’re dreaming or something fundamental has changed. My money’s on the latter – at least for some of these names.
Either way, it’s going to be a fascinating final month of the year.
