Every year around this time I start getting the same nervous texts from friends who’ve been house-hunting for months: “Should we just go for it before everything shuts down for the holidays?” This November feels different, though. There’s a strange mix of urgency in the air and a weird stillness in the numbers that make you wonder if we’re sprinting toward the finish line or just running in place.
Last week offered the perfect snapshot of that contradiction.
A Final Pre-Holiday Sprint Meets Stubbornly Flat Rates
Here’s the headline nobody really wants to hear: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.40% last week. That’s up a hair from 6.37% the week before and marks the highest level we’ve seen since early October. More importantly, rates have basically been bouncing inside the same narrow channel for the past eight weeks. For anyone waiting for a dramatic drop that would suddenly make buying feel easy again, the message from the bond market has been a resounding “keep waiting.”
And yet, people aren’t waiting. At least not all of them.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home jumped 8% week-over-week and now stand a remarkable 20% above the same week last year. In a market where every basis point feels like a personal attack on your budget, that kind of year-over-year gain stands out like neon.
Why the Sudden Urgency?
Several things are colliding at once, and none of them are particularly surprising if you’ve been paying attention.
- The calendar is running out. Most people do not want to close on a house between Thanksgiving and New Year’s if they can possibly avoid it. Lenders slow down, appraisers take vacation, and nobody wants to move in January sleet.
- Inventory, while better than the pandemic craziness, is still tight in many desirable areas. Buyers who have been watching the same listings for weeks are tired of losing to slightly higher offers.
- There’s a growing suspicion—maybe even a quiet hope—that rates aren’t coming down meaningfully anytime soon. If you’ve been waiting for 5.5% or lower, the last two months have been a cold splash of reality.
In my experience covering this market, that last point is the one that finally breaks the paralysis for a lot of shoppers. When people realize the “perfect” rate might be a 2026 problem, not a 2025 gift, they start doing the math on today’s numbers instead of tomorrow’s dreams.
Government Loans Are Carrying the Load
Perhaps the most interesting detail buried in last week’s data was the surge in government-backed purchase applications—FHA, VA, and USDA loans combined. That index shot up 9% for the week and recorded its strongest reading since early 2023.
That tells us exactly who’s driving this late-year push.
First-time buyers and middle-income families are the ones stretching to make the numbers work, and they’re doing it with lower down-payment programs and more forgiving credit requirements. The average purchase loan size actually dropped to its lowest level in two months, which reinforces the idea that move-up buyers with bigger budgets are still largely sitting on the sidelines.
Affordability remains a challenge in many markets and government loan programs remain appealing to qualified buyers looking to purchase a home.
– MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist
Translation: if you have strong credit and 20% to put down, you’re probably waiting. If you’re scraping together 3.5% and praying your debt-to-income ratio cooperates, you’re writing offers right now.
The Refinance Story Is Pure Base Effect
Every time I see headlines screaming about refinance volume being “117% higher than a year ago,” I have to laugh a little. Yes, the number is technically correct. No, it does not mean we’re in the middle of a refi boom.
Refinance applications actually dropped 6% last week. The gigantic year-over-year gain exists only because volume was rock-bottom depressed twelve months ago when rates were pushing toward 8%. When you’re comparing anything to a near-zero base, the percentage jump looks insane even if the absolute level remains modest.
Think of it like this: if one person refinanced last year and two people refinance this year, that’s a 100% increase. Doesn’t exactly signal a gold rush, does it?
What Happens After Thanksgiving?
Historically, the week after Thanksgiving is when the housing market takes a deep breath and doesn’t exhale until Super Bowl Sunday. Lenders go on skeleton crews, sellers pull listings rather than deal with holiday showings, and buyers shift focus to family and travel.
This year feels like the inhale might be especially sharp.
Early this week rates actually dipped a bit—nothing dramatic, but enough to remind everyone how sensitive the market remains to even tiny movements. Some analysts attribute the small improvement to holiday-thinned trading floors and weaker-than-expected private payroll numbers. Others point to chatter about potential Fed leadership changes that could tilt policy in a more rate-friendly direction.
Whatever the reason, the dip probably won’t last long enough to change many decisions. By the time anyone could lock in a slightly lower rate and get through underwriting, we’d be staring at Christmas lights and delayed closings.
Three Takeaways for Anyone Still Shopping
- If you’re pre-approved and you love a house, this week might genuinely be your last realistic chance to close in 2025 without major headaches.
- Don’t fall in love with the interest rate. Fall in love with the payment you can actually afford for the next several years. Rates will eventually come down; your mortgage will travel with you.
- Government loan programs are more competitive than they’ve been in years. If you thought you couldn’t qualify, it’s worth a fresh conversation with a lender.
I’ve watched enough cycles to know that the people who buy when everyone else is distracted often end up the happiest five years later. The market never feels perfect, but sometimes “good enough right now” beats “perfect someday” by a mile.
So if you’re standing in an open house this weekend wondering whether to write the offer or wait for spring, just remember: spring will bring more buyers, probably higher prices, and—who knows—rates that might still be in the sixes.
The holidays are coming either way. The question is whether you want to spend them unpacking boxes in your new place… or refreshing listings on your phone for the 300th time.
Choose wisely.
