Remember when everyone was whispering about an AI bubble ready to pop? Yeah, that was literally yesterday.
One earnings call later and the entire mood of the market has flipped like someone hit the big green “risk-on” button. Nvidia didn’t just beat expectations last night – they obliterated them, and in doing so reminded everyone why this trade has legs for miles.
Let me paint the picture: futures were already looking shaky heading into the print. Then Jensen Huang drops a $65 billion guidance bomb for the current quarter (way above the $61.9 billion street number) and casually mentions they’re still sold out of Blackwell chips for the next twelve months. The stock jumped nearly 5% after hours. Nasdaq futures? Up almost 2%. The relief rally was instant and ferocious.
Why This Nvidia Print Felt Different
I’ve covered a lot of Nvidia earnings over the past three years. Usually the stock moves a few percent post-print and everyone shrugs because the bar was sky-high. This time felt different – and the price action proved it.
Why? Because for the first time in ages, people went into the report actually nervous. A month of heavy selling in tech, growing chatter about “AI circularity,” valuation worries, you name it. The wall of worry was real. And Nvidia climbed it with a rocket pack.
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble… we see something different.”
– Jensen Huang, basically laughing at the bears
When the CEO can say that with a straight face after delivering 100%+ growth, you listen.
The Numbers That Mattered
- Revenue: $57 billion actual vs $55.2 billion expected
- Next quarter guide: $65 billion (street was $61.9 billion)
- Data center revenue still growing triple digits YoY
- Blackwell ramp looks smoother than anyone dared hope
- Even China restrictions barely dented the outlook
Perhaps most importantly, the CFO reiterated visibility into half a trillion dollars of revenue from Blackwell and Rubin over the coming quarters. Half. A. Trillion. Let that sink in.
The Broader Tech Rebound
It wasn’t just Nvidia. The whole AI food chain lit up:
- CoreWeave (CRWV) +8% after hours
- AMD, Broadcom, Oracle all bouncing hard
- Even laggards like Palantir and Snowflake catching bids
- Mag7 complex looking healthy again – Tesla +2%, Alphabet +1.9%, Amazon +1.4%
The semis are leading, but cyclicals are joining the party too. If S&P futures hold these gains into the cash open, both the S&P and Nasdaq will reclaim their 50-day moving averages in one session. That’s textbook technical fuel on top of the fundamental spark.
But Wait – What About That Delayed Payrolls Report?
Here’s where things get spicy.
Today we finally get the September jobs report – yes, the one that was supposed to come out seven weeks ago. And thanks to the BLS drama, it’s literally the only major labor market print the Fed will see before the December meeting. No October report. November data delayed until after the decision. This is it.
Consensus sits around +51k, but estimates are all over the place – from -20k to +105k. Goldman’s at +80k, JPM at +50k. Anything south of 70k probably keeps a December cut alive (currently priced at just 25%). North of that? The Fed might comfortably pause.
“I’d wager the Goldilocks zone is probably 30k to 70k – resilient enough to avoid panic, weak enough to justify another cut.”
– Head of research at a major brokerage
In my experience, when the market is this desperate for data, even a mediocre print can spark fireworks – especially when positioning has been washed out.
Rate Cut Odds: From 50% to 25% in One Day
Speaking of desperation – did you see what happened yesterday when the BLS announced no October report and November delayed?
December cut probability collapsed from 47% to 27% in minutes. Minutes! That’s one of the fastest repricings I’ve ever seen outside of actual data or Powell speaking.
The latest FOMC minutes didn’t help the doves either – “many” officials already leaning toward holding rates steady for the rest of 2025. When you combine that with missing data and a resilient economy, the path of least resistance for the Fed is to wait.
The Year-End Rally Setup
Put it all together and the board looks pretty favorable for bulls right now:
- Nvidia just removed the biggest overhang in tech
- Positioning into earnings was extremely light
- Seasonality into year-end is historically strong
- Even if the Fed skips December, they’re still at 4.25-4.50% – hardly restrictive
- Tariff fears? Still out there, but priced in for now
As one CIO put it last night: “Nothing stands in the way of a Christmas rally now.”
I tend to agree – provided today’s cash session holds the gap up. If we close strong, the narrative flips hard from “bubble bursting” to “dip bought, new highs incoming.”
Risks That Haven’t Gone Away
Let’s not get carried away though. Plenty of landmines remain:
- Private credit stress showing up in BlackRock funds
- Bitcoin and crypto still bleeding (down another 2% yesterday)
- Consumer staples and defensives rolling over
- Tariff implementation risk in 2026
- Geopolitical wildcard – Ukraine/Russia developments moving fast
And perhaps most importantly – what happens if AI capex starts to slow in 2026? Goldman says cash flows won’t constrain the hyperscalers, but they’ve been wrong about the pace before. This trade still requires religious belief in the ROI of AI infrastructure.
Where We Stand Right Now
As I write this pre-market Thursday, the scoreboard looks beautiful if you’re long:
- S&P futures +1.3%
- Nasdaq futures +1.6%
- Europe bouncing hard – Stoxx 600 +0.9%
- Asia absolutely on fire – Nikkei +2.9%, Korea +2.5%
- Bitcoin clawing back above $92k
- 10-year yield steady at 4.14%
The VIX has dropped nearly 3 points overnight. Breadth should be strong at the open. Tech is firmly back in the driver’s seat.
Bottom line? Nvidia didn’t just save its own stock last night – it saved the entire growth trade, at least temporarily. Whether this is the start of the year-end melt-up or just another bear market rally will likely come down to today’s payrolls print and how the Fed interprets it.
Either way, after weeks of pain, it feels good to see some green again.
Now let’s see if the bulls can hold it.
