I’ve been watching the crypto markets for years now, and every once in a while, a token comes along that grabs everyone’s attention—only to leave traders scratching their heads when the hype fades. Pi Coin is starting to feel like one of those stories. What started as a wildly popular mobile mining project has seen its price absolutely hammered lately, and right now, the charts are painting a pretty grim picture.
Down more than a quarter from its recent highs, Pi is flirting with levels that could decide whether it stabilizes or spirals even lower. Honestly, it’s hard not to wonder: are we on the verge of a full-blown crash, or is this just another shakeout before buyers step back in? Let’s dig into what’s really going on.
The Bearish Signals Stacking Up for Pi Coin
If you’ve glanced at Pi’s price action recently, you know it’s not pretty. The token has been sliding steadily, losing ground week after week. But it’s not just random selling—there are clear technical and fundamental reasons why the downside pressure feels so intense right now.
A Classic Double-Top Pattern Emerges
One of the things that jumped out at me immediately was the formation on the shorter timeframes. On the 4-hour chart, Pi has carved out what looks like a textbook double-top pattern. You know the one—two peaks at roughly the same level, separated by a trough, and then a breakdown below the neckline.
In my experience, these setups don’t always play out perfectly, but when they confirm with a clean break, they often lead to sharp moves lower. For Pi, that neckline gave way not long ago, and the price has been grinding downward ever since. It’s the kind of pattern that makes you pause before jumping in with fresh buys.
What makes it even more concerning is how cleanly the pattern developed over the past couple of months. The highs were almost identical, and volume tapered off on the second peak—classic distribution signs if you’re looking through a bearish lens.
The Death Cross Adds Fuel to the Fire
As if the double-top wasn’t enough, another notorious signal has appeared. The 50-period simple moving average has crossed below the 200-period one, forming what’s commonly called a death cross.
Now, I know some traders roll their eyes at moving average crossovers—they can lag, and false signals happen. But in a downtrending market like this, a death cross often confirms that bears have the upper hand for the foreseeable future. It’s less about pinpoint timing and more about the overall shift in momentum.
Seeing both a bearish reversal pattern and a death cross line up at the same time? That’s the sort of confluence that gets technical analysts talking. It certainly has me leaning cautious on Pi for the near term.
Plummeting Volume and Fading Whale Interest
Technical patterns aside, the on-chain and market data tell a similar story of waning enthusiasm. Trading volume has collapsed from the billions seen earlier this year to barely tens of millions on many days.
When volume dries up during a downtrend, it usually means buyers are simply not showing up. Sellers can push price lower on relatively light activity, and there’s little conviction to defend key levels. I’ve found this dynamic plays out repeatedly in altcoins once the initial excitement wears off.
- Peak daily volume earlier in 2025 topped $2.5 billion
- Recent sessions are struggling to reach even $25 million
- Consistent decline mirrors retreating retail and institutional interest
Whale accumulation has also slowed dramatically. Large holders who were scooping up tokens during the early hype phase seem to have stepped back, leaving the market vulnerable to further distribution.
The Looming Threat of Token Unlocks
Perhaps the most fundamental headwind facing Pi right now is the scheduled release of additional supply. These unlocks aren’t small—they represent hundreds of millions of tokens hitting circulation in the coming weeks and billions over the next year.
When new supply floods the market without matching demand growth, dilution is almost inevitable. Existing holders see their percentage of the pie shrink, and if sentiment is already fragile, selling pressure can compound quickly.
Increasing circulating supply during periods of low demand rarely ends well for price action.
Think about it: if volume is already anemic and buyers are hesitant, who absorbs all those extra tokens? The imbalance practically invites lower prices until equilibrium is found—often much lower than current levels.
Looking ahead, the unlock schedule shows no signs of letting up through 2026. That continuous overhang could cap any meaningful recovery attempts and keep the overall trend pointed south.
Key Support Zone Under Serious Threat
All eyes are now on the $0.192–$0.196 area. This range has acted as solid support multiple times over recent months, with buyers stepping in to defend it aggressively.
But each test weakens the level a bit more. We’re already seeing price dip below it intraday, and a decisive close underneath could trigger stop-loss cascades and fresh selling momentum.
If that support crumbles—and given the current setup, it’s a real possibility—the next logical downside target sits around $0.15. That’s the swing low from earlier corrections and would represent another 25% drop from today’s levels.
Beyond that, psychological round numbers like $0.10 come into play, though I’d expect some bargain hunting to emerge before we get there. Still, in a risk-off environment, overshoots happen more often than not.
Historical Context: Pi’s Wild Ride So Far
To really understand where we might be headed, it’s worth stepping back and looking at Pi’s price history. The token exploded onto the scene with massive community-driven mining, pushing prices toward $3 at one point.
That kind of parabolic move almost always ends with an equally dramatic correction. We’ve already retraced over 93% from the all-time high—a classic post-hype drawdown seen in countless altcoins before.
- Early 2025 peak near $2.99 amid listing frenzy
- Sharp pullback as reality of supply dynamics set in
- November local high followed by fresh leg lower
- Current consolidation near multi-month lows
The pattern feels eerily familiar if you’ve been around crypto long enough. Projects with huge pre-mine or gradual release schedules often struggle to maintain elevated valuations once the full supply picture becomes clear.
Could Bulls Stage a Surprise Comeback?
Of course, markets love to surprise us. While the weight of evidence leans bearish, there are scenarios where Pi could stabilize or even bounce meaningfully.
A sudden surge in network activity, positive ecosystem announcements, or broader crypto risk-on sentiment could bring buyers back. If the current support zone holds firm and we see higher lows form, the double-top breakdown might end up as a fakeout.
But honestly? With unlocks accelerating and volume still depressed, I’d need to see convincing evidence of renewed demand before getting optimistic. Right now, the path of least resistance appears downward.
What Traders Should Watch Next
Moving forward, a few key developments will likely dictate Pi’s trajectory:
- Whether the $0.192–$0.196 zone holds on a weekly close
- Any spikes in volume that suggest accumulation
- Upcoming unlock events and immediate price reaction
- Broader altcoin and Bitcoin performance
Personally, I’m staying on the sidelines until we get clarity. Crypto rewards patience as much as conviction, and forcing trades into heavy overhead supply rarely ends well.
At the end of the day, Pi Coin’s story is still being written. The current setup screams caution, with multiple bearish signals aligning just as critical support comes under fire. A break lower could open the door to significantly cheaper levels, while a strong defense might offer relief.
Either way, this is one altcoin worth keeping on your radar—whether you’re looking for short opportunities or waiting for a potential bottom. The next few weeks could be decisive.
(Note: This analysis reflects market conditions as of December 17, 2025. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.)
