I refreshed the chart twice before I trusted the number. Pi Network price had slipped under eight cents, and the candle did not look like a casual dip. It looked like a market that had already spent its bounce and was now asking buyers a blunt question: do you still want this level, or was last month the whole recovery?
On October 8 the token was changing hands around $0.0785. The session had opened higher, tagged $0.08300, and then faded to a low near $0.07713. That is not a crash in the dramatic sense. It is worse in a quieter way. Price is sitting inside the exact band a chart watcher had marked as the floor of a possible double bottom, and the upper edge of that band is already overhead.
Weekly numbers make the mood clearer. From a weekly open near $0.08731, the token was down roughly 10 percent, with the week’s high only $0.08834. September’s push toward $0.10 has given way to another retreat. July and August lows are back in the conversation. If you have been watching this market for more than a few weeks, that pattern will feel familiar. Rallies stall. Support gets retested. Optimism gets expensive.
Why The October Chart Looks Unsettled
A single red day rarely settles an argument. What unsettles me here is the stack. Daily momentum is negative. A widely followed trend filter still sits above price. The weekly midpoint of a volatility band is well overhead. And a proposed reversal pattern has not been confirmed. It is being stress-tested.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how narrow the margin has become. Support was framed between $0.075 and $0.080. At roughly $0.0785, Pi Network price is not approaching that zone. It is living in it. The latest daily low leaves only a thin gap above the lower boundary. Lose that, and the bullish sketch a commentator drew on October 5 starts to look like a story the market declined to finish.
I have found that these moments punish certainty. Traders who treat a double bottom as a promise tend to average down into a broken floor. Traders who treat every red candle as a funeral miss the rare reclaim. The useful posture, at least from where I sit, is conditional. Hold the band, and the formation survives as a hypothesis. Break it, and the next technical reference is no longer a neckline far above. It is a lower weekly band near $0.0603.
What The Session Actually Did
Daily trade showed Pi Network price at $0.07856, off about 2.96 percent for the session. That percentage sounds modest until you place it against the week. A token that opened the week near $0.08731 and is now under $0.079 has already spent a large part of October’s early range on the way down.
The intraday path matters more than the close alone. Buyers did show up enough to print $0.08300. They did not keep it. Sellers then pushed through the round number that had clustered earlier trade, $0.0800, and probed $0.07713. Round numbers are psychological, not magical. Still, when a market loses one that recently acted as a hinge, the next sessions often become a referendum on whether that hinge was real.
Both the daily and weekly frames now place the token near the lower end of its recent range. Sideways trade between roughly $0.080 and $0.100 did not restore the token above a descending central line on the weekly chart. That is the sort of detail easy to skip if you only watch the last candle. It is also the detail that explains why rebounds keep feeling heavy.
A support zone is not a promise. It is a place where earlier buyers interrupted a decline. If they do not interrupt it again, the zone becomes a memory.
Chart desk note, October tape
September’s Bounce, Revisited
September offered the cleanest bullish argument of the late summer. Price worked back toward $0.10. Momentum, for a stretch, stopped looking exhausted. Anyone constructing a recovery case could point at that push and say the worst of the grind was behind.
Then the ceiling held. The advance stalled in the same broad neighborhood that has rejected several attempts, roughly $0.090 to $0.100. From there the tape rolled over, and October inherited a market that had already failed to convert a bounce into a trend. That failure is why the current test feels sharper than a random midweek dip. The market already spent a recovery attempt. It is now spending the leftover.
In my experience, second tests of a low are where narratives get honest. The first touch can be bought on hope. The second touch asks for evidence. Right now the evidence is mixed at best, and the indicators I trust for direction are not doing the bulls any favors.
The Double Bottom Is Still A Hypothesis
On October 5, with the token near $0.0868, a market commentator mapped a potential double bottom on the daily chart. The sketch was specific enough to be useful, which is rarer than it should be.
- Price at the time of the post sat around $0.0868.
- Support was placed between $0.075 and $0.080.
- The neckline, or key resistance, was marked near $0.105 to $0.110.
- A first upside objective was listed around $0.14.
- A higher, more conditional objective sat near $0.21 to $0.22.
Three sessions later, Pi Network price is inside the support band rather than comfortably above it. That shift changes the job of the pattern. A double bottom is not confirmed because two troughs exist on a chart. It is confirmed, if at all, when price breaks the neckline with conviction and does not immediately fall back through it. The neckline here is still a long walk away.
Using the $0.07856 daily reading, a move to the bottom of that neckline near $0.105 would require a gain of about 34 percent. Reaching $0.110 would need roughly 40 percent. Those are not impossible moves in a thin altcoin. They are also not the kind of moves you should pencil in because a pattern has a name. Distance is a risk factor. The farther the trigger sits, the more sessions can go wrong before anyone is allowed to call it a breakout.
I keep coming back to a simple distinction. The formation can survive this week. It cannot be traded as if it has already worked. Survival means the $0.075 to $0.080 area holds and the market stops making lower lows. Confirmation means something else entirely, and that something else lives above $0.105.
How A Double Bottom Usually Fails
Patterns fail in ordinary ways. The second trough undercuts the first by just enough to shake out the early buyers. Volume on the rebound is thin. Price tags the neckline, or never even gets close, and rolls over. Commentators then redraw the lines and call it a complex base. Sometimes that redraw is fair. Often it is a refusal to admit the original map was wrong.
For this token, failure would look concrete. A daily close under $0.075 would put the stated support behind price. The weekly lower band near $0.06030 would stop being a distant reference and start being a plausible magnet if selling accelerates. I am not forecasting that print. I am saying the path is visible, and pretending it is not does nobody any good.
There is another failure mode that feels softer and is just as costly. Price holds $0.075, chops for weeks, and never reclaims $0.09. The pattern is not invalidated in a textbook sense. Capital is still trapped. Time is a cost, especially in a market where attention moves to whatever is actually trending. A base that does not resolve is its own kind of loss.
Daily Momentum Has Not Turned
Two daily tools are doing the same job from different angles. The Supertrend reading remained red at $0.09267, above the market. The moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, stayed below zero. Neither is a crystal ball. Together they describe a tape that has not repaired its trend.
From $0.07856, Pi Network price would need to rise about 18 percent just to meet that Supertrend line. Eighteen percent sounds like a rally. In this structure it would only get the token back to a filter that has stayed overhead through the recent consolidation, including this October slide. The same zone, roughly $0.090 to $0.093, is where several recovery attempts have stalled. A tag of Supertrend would be progress. It would not, by itself, be a new trend.
The MACD details are small and still worth reading. The line stood near minus 0.00200. The signal line sat near minus 0.00102. The histogram printed about minus 0.00098, with fresh red bars beside the latest drop. September’s positive momentum faded. The line turned lower again as price moved toward $0.080. That is what a failed bounce looks like in indicator form: not a crash spike, a rollover.
Daily snapshot, October 8 Last: about $0.07856 Session high: $0.08300 Session low: $0.07713 Supertrend: $0.09267, still overhead MACD line: about -0.00200 Signal line: about -0.00102 Histogram: about -0.00098
Nearby reference levels are plain. First comes $0.0800, now overhead, then the session high at $0.08300. Above that, the larger hurdles cluster around $0.090 to $0.093 and the September ceiling near $0.1000. I would treat any bounce that dies under $0.083 as noise. A bounce that reclaims $0.083 and holds it into a daily close would at least suggest the latest low attracted a bid. Even then, Supertrend remains the cleaner trend test.
Weekly Bands And The $0.0603 Reference
The weekly Bollinger Bands add a wider frame. Midpoint near $0.10151. Upper band near $0.14272. Lower band near $0.06030. Pi Network price, at about $0.07845 on that frame, remains below the midpoint. The recent sideways stretch near $0.080 to $0.100 never carried it back over that descending central line.
At $0.07845, the token stood roughly 23 percent above the lower band, measured as the decline required to reach it. That gap is real. It is also not a cushion you can spend casually. Bands move as new prices arrive, so $0.06030 is a current reading, not a fixed October target. If support between $0.075 and $0.080 breaks and volatility expands, the lower band can drift as price falls. The number is a map pin, not a destination engraved in stone.
The midpoint is the opposite problem. A move from $0.07845 to $0.10151 would need about 29 percent. That lands a weekly recovery in the same $0.10 area that capped September. Two tests, then, sit on the weekly chart at once. Can the recent lows hold? And if they do, can a rebound actually reclaim the central band? Bulls need both. One without the other is a pause, not a turn.
| Reference | Level | What it asks of price |
| Session low | $0.07713 | Nearest intraday print under threat |
| Support band low | $0.075 | Loss weakens the double-bottom case |
| Round hinge | $0.080 | Now overhead after the latest slip |
| Supertrend | $0.09267 | About 18 percent higher, trend filter |
| Weekly midpoint | $0.10151 | About 29 percent higher on the week |
| Neckline zone | $0.105 to $0.110 | Breakout trigger, still untested |
| Weekly lower band | $0.06030 | Next broader reference if support fails |
I like tables for this kind of tape because memory flatters levels. A trader remembers the target and forgets the distance. The distance is the trade.
October’s Protocol Dates Sit Beside The Chart
Price is not the only clock running. The project has said its testnet moved to Protocol 28. A node upgrade deadline was set for October 13, ahead of a scheduled mainnet upgrade on October 16. Those dates fall inside the same month the chart is pressing support.
According to the project’s own description, Protocol 28 improves how delayed transaction data is handled and lets developers update groups of smart contracts and stored application data more safely. That is infrastructure language. It matters to anyone who cares whether the network can ship changes without breaking what already runs. It does not, by itself, buy the chart.
I have watched too many token markets treat a roadmap date as a bid. Sometimes the date brings volume. Sometimes it brings sell-the-news supply from holders who waited for a headline. The honest read is that October 13 and October 16 are event risk, not a directional signal. If support is already thin, an event can amplify whichever side shows up.
Separately, September verification changes were said to let more than 417,000 users previously flagged for possible duplicate accounts move forward through identity checks. A planned fix was also described for 497,000 users whose migration claims had been blocked because balances were too small to cover transaction fees. Those figures speak to onboarding friction, not to order-book depth. They can matter for the longer story of who can actually use the network. They do not redraw $0.09267.
What A Bullish October Would Actually Require
The commentator tied a $0.14 objective to a confirmed daily breakout above the $0.105 to $0.110 neckline, and listed $0.21 to $0.22 only if that reversal developed. Both numbers are conditional. Conditional is the word that should stay attached to them.
A bullish path I could respect would look sequential, not hopeful.
- Hold the $0.075 to $0.080 band, ideally with the $0.07713 low left intact.
- Reclaim $0.080 and then $0.08300 on a daily close, not a wick.
- Push into $0.090 to $0.093 and deal with Supertrend near $0.09267.
- Recover the weekly midpoint near $0.10151, which overlaps September’s ceiling.
- Only then treat $0.105 to $0.110 as a breakout test rather than a distant sketch.
Skip a step and the later targets are marketing. Clear them in order and the double-bottom case stops being a tweet and starts being a structure. Even then, $0.14 would be an extension, not a right. Markets overshoot. They also stall at the first serious supply. The upper weekly band near $0.14272 happens to sit close to that first target, which is a coincidence worth noting and not a reason to anchor on it.
Would I call the higher $0.21 to $0.22 area a base case? No. It requires a full reversal, a neckline break, and follow-through most altcoins do not deliver on the first attempt. It belongs in a scenario folder, labeled ambitious, and left there until the chart earns it.
What A Worse October Would Look Like
The bearish case does not need imagination. It needs a close under the band the bulls are defending.
A loss of $0.075 would weaken the proposed formation in the commentator’s own terms. From there, attention shifts toward the weekly lower band near $0.06030. That is about 23 percent under the latest weekly price, before any band drift. In a thin book, 23 percent is not a multi-month thesis. It can be a fast trip if stops cluster under a widely watched floor.
There is a milder bearish path that still answers the question in the headline. October gets worse without a collapse. Price chops under $0.080, fails every push toward $0.083, and finishes the month pinned to the lower third of the range while the protocol dates come and go. That outcome would not make a dramatic chart. It would still leave holders worse off than the weekly open, and it would leave the double bottom unconfirmed.
Macro tape can shove either path around. If broader crypto risk appetite sours, a token already under its trend filter rarely gets a free pass. If the wider market firms, this name still has to clear its own ceilings. Relative weakness during a market bounce is information. So is relative strength during a market dip. Right now the local evidence leans weak.
The immediate test is not the neckline. The immediate test is whether the floor under eight cents is a floor at all.
Reading Support Without Romanticizing It
Support is a record of past buying, not a moral claim on future buying. July and August produced troughs that later got folded into a double-bottom story. Those troughs tell us sellers paused. They do not tell us the same buyers are still funded, still online, or still interested after September failed.
A practical way to watch the band is to split it.
- $0.080 is the psychological lid the latest slide lost. Reclaiming it is the first repair.
- $0.077 to $0.078 is where the latest trade is living. Chop here is indecision, not strength.
- $0.075 is the line the October 5 map treated as the lower edge. A break changes the story.
Wicks through a level happen. I care more about where the day closes and whether the next day accepts that close. A spike to $0.074 that is bought back above $0.078 before the session ends is a different animal from a close at $0.074 and a lower open. Language on social feeds often collapses those into one word, breakdown. The tape is pickier than the caption.
Indicators Are Tools, Not Judges
Supertrend, MACD, and Bollinger Bands disagree less often than people think, and they still get over-trusted. Supertrend is a trailing filter. It will be late at turns, which is the point. It keeps you from calling a trend change on the first green candle. MACD measures the relationship between two moving averages and will lag a sharp reversal. Bands describe volatility around a mean. A ride along the lower band can persist longer than a mean-reversion instinct expects.
Used together, they currently rhyme. Trend filter overhead. Momentum below zero with a negative histogram. Price under the weekly mean. That rhyme is why I read the setup as bearish until repaired, not because any single line is sacred. If tomorrow’s candle reclaims $0.083 and MACD starts to curl, I would update the read. Stubbornness is not analysis.
One habit that helps: write the invalidation before the target. For a long leaning on the double bottom, invalidation is a sustained loss of $0.075. For a short leaning on weakness, invalidation is a daily close back above Supertrend, or at least a firm reclaim of $0.093 that sticks. Without that sentence, every twitch feels like confirmation.
Liquidity, Attention, And The Cost Of Waiting
Small-price tokens create an optical illusion. A move from eight cents to nine cents looks tiny on a screen and is more than 12 percent. A move from eight cents to six cents looks like spare change and is a quarter of the position. Position size has to respect the percentage, not the decimal places.
Attention is the other hidden cost. Protocol headlines can pull eyes back to the chart for a few days around October 13 and October 16. After that, if price is still stuck under $0.09, the crowd often leaves. Thin attention plus a broken support band is how slow grinds become abrupt gaps. I do not know that this happens here. I know the conditions are the kind that allow it.
Migration and verification progress, including the figures around 417,000 users moving through checks and 497,000 fee-blocked claims slated for a fix, belong in a product discussion. They become market discussion only if they change who can transact and whether that shows up as real activity. Until the chart reflects it, they are background. Useful background. Not a bid.
A Level-By-Level Map For The Rest Of The Month
If I were marking a notebook for the rest of October, it would look less like a prediction and more like a set of if-then lines.
Above the market, $0.0800 is the first tell. Accepting trade back over it would mean the latest breakdown under the round number was rejected. $0.08300 is the second tell, because that is where this session already failed. $0.090 to $0.093 is the third, and it overlaps the red Supertrend. $0.100 to $0.1015 is the fourth, where September stalled and the weekly midpoint waits. Only after that does $0.105 to $0.110 become a live breakout question.
Below the market, $0.07713 is the intraday scar. $0.075 is the structural line from the double-bottom map. Under that, there is air until the weekly lower band area near $0.0603, with whatever interim pauses the tape invents along the way. Interim pauses are not the same as support. They are places price slowed once.
If close holds above 0.075 and reclaims 0.083, repair is underway.
If close loses 0.075, the October 5 reversal sketch is damaged.
If price tags 0.09267 and fails, the trend filter is still in charge.
If price clears 0.105 and holds, the neckline debate finally starts.That block is deliberately plain. Fancy language is how people talk themselves into a bias. The market will fill in the adjectives.
Why Round Numbers Keep Showing Up
$0.0800, $0.1000, $0.075. None of these are ordained. They cluster because humans place orders on clean figures, and because earlier articles and posts repeat them until they become shared memory. Shared memory can create real liquidity. It can also create a trap if everyone leans the same way.
The October 5 post put support at $0.075 to $0.080 while price was still $0.0868. That was a reasonable map. It also advertised the area. Advertised areas sometimes hold because buyers gather there. They sometimes fail because stops gather just beneath them. Both can be true in the same week. The first test holds. The second test, after the crowd has had time to cluster, does not.
We are on a live test now, not a theoretical one. Pi Network price is inside the advertised band. That is the whole story of the first third of October, compressed into a few cents.
Volatility Math Without The Drama
A few percentage moves are worth keeping next to the narrative, because narrative inflates and math does not.
From $0.07856 to Supertrend at $0.09267 is about 18 percent. From $0.07845 to the weekly midpoint at $0.10151 is about 29 percent. From $0.07856 to $0.105 is about 34 percent. From $0.07856 to $0.110 is about 40 percent. From $0.07856 to the first pattern target at $0.14 is roughly 78 percent. From $0.07845 down to $0.06030 is about 23 percent. The upside sketches are larger than the nearby downside reference. That asymmetry is exactly why broken-support trades can feel asymmetric in the wrong direction if you are long and wrong.
None of those figures are forecasts. They are distances. A market can travel 18 percent and still be in a downtrend. It can also refuse to travel 5 percent if supply is waiting. I would rather know the miles than memorize the slogan.
Event Risk Around The Middle Of The Month
Node operators have a deadline. Mainnet has a date. Developers have a protocol change described as cleaner handling of delayed data and safer grouped updates to contracts and stored application data. If you run infrastructure, those sentences are the point. If you trade the token, the point is how the order book behaves into and out of the dates.
A common pattern, not a rule, is a drift into the event, a spike in messages and volume on the day, and a give-back if the upgrade is merely completed rather than surprising. Completion is good engineering. Markets often price engineering milestones before they arrive, then look for the next reason. If the chart is already under pressure, a smooth upgrade may not be enough to lift Supertrend. A troubled upgrade could add a reason to test $0.075. I have no special information on execution quality. The schedule itself is the known variable.
Between October 8 and October 16 there are not many sessions. That compression matters. A slow base usually wants time. This month is offering a deadline instead. Deadlines and bases do not always cooperate.
What Holders And Traders Might Watch Differently
A long-term holder looking at identity-check progress and a protocol upgrade may reasonably care less about a two-cent range. That person is underwriting a network, not a candle. Even so, price is the scoreboard other people use, and a scoreboard under a widely discussed floor changes sentiment around the same product story. Ignoring the chart does not pause it.
A short-term trader has a narrower job. Respect $0.075. Do not invent a breakout under $0.09. Treat MACD below zero as a reason to demand more evidence, not as a reason to narrate a bottom every morning. If the reclaim sequence I listed earlier starts printing daily closes, the job changes. Until then, the path of least resistance on the daily chart is still heavy.
Neither approach is a recommendation. This kind of note is educational. Tokens this volatile can gap through the level you meant to honor. Size and time horizon are personal. The chart does not know your cost basis, and it will not adjust for it.
The September Ceiling Still Casts A Shadow
I keep returning to $0.10 because the market already voted there. A recovery that cannot clear the last supply zone is a recovery in name only. Weekly midpoint and September’s stall live in the same neighborhood. That overlap is awkward for bulls. It means the first impressive-looking rally of a new leg would still be inside old range.
Old range is where false starts are born. Price pops, social feeds revive the $0.14 target, and the candle fades at $0.098. If you have traded this tape before, you have seen the costume. The way through it is boring: wait for acceptance above the zone, not a headline about a touch.
Acceptance, for me, means more than one daily close, and preferably a weekly close, above the level in question. One wick is a visit. A close is a decision. Two closes start to look like a change of address.
A Note On Pattern Targets
Classic pattern targets often measure the height of the base and project it from the neckline. You do not need the formula to see the issue. The neckline is far above spot. Any projected target inherits that distance plus the height of the base. That is how $0.14 and then $0.21 enter the conversation while spot is still fighting $0.078. The math can be internally consistent and still be premature.
I would file $0.14 as a measured idea that activates only after $0.105 to $0.110 breaks and holds. I would file $0.21 to $0.22 as a stretch case that also needs the weekly structure to flip, including a move through the midpoint and a sustained trade above prior supply. Until those gates open, repeating the targets is how a conditional sketch becomes a meme.
There is nothing wrong with ambitious targets. There is something wrong with leading with them while the floor is under review. Sequence is the whole edge in this kind of write-up.
How The Weekly Decline Changes The Tone
A 10 percent weekly drop from $0.08731 to the high $0.078s is not exotic for this corner of the market. Tone still shifts. Early-month buyers are underwater. Anyone who bought the September approach toward $0.10 is further underwater. Underwater supply is patient until it is not. Rallies toward a buyer’s entry often meet that inventory.
That is one reason $0.083, $0.087, and $0.090 may not be empty air. They are recent prices where someone said yes. If those holders are looking for an exit, the path back to Supertrend gets crowded. If they are not, the path is cleaner than the chart currently implies. We will not know which group is larger until a bounce is offered and either absorbed or sold.
The week’s high at $0.08834 already hints at where that offer was refused once. It is not a fortress. It is a mark.
Putting Product News In Its Place
It is tempting to braid every announcement into the candle. Protocol 28, a node deadline, a mainnet date, hundreds of thousands of verification and migration fixes: each item is real on its own terms. Braided together and forced onto a four-hour chart, they become a story the order book may not be trading.
A cleaner split helps. Product progress answers whether the network is moving. Market structure answers whether the token is being accumulated. October can be a yes on the first and a no on the second. That combination frustrates communities, because it feels like the chart is ignoring the work. Charts ignore plenty of work. They respond to orders.
If the upgrades land cleanly and price still loses $0.075, the market will have delivered a verdict about timing, not about the code. If the upgrades slip and price somehow reclaims $0.093, the market will have delivered a different verdict. Either way, mixing the two narratives into one sentence is how people get surprised.
A Cautious Read, Not A Verdict
So will October get worse? It can. The ingredients are on the table: price inside a support band, a lost round number, negative daily momentum, an overhead trend filter, a weekly mean still above, and event dates that may not wait for a base to form. Worse, in this context, means either a break of $0.075 toward the weekly lower band, or a grinding month that never repairs $0.09.
It can also stabilize. Holding $0.075, reclaiming $0.080, and building back toward $0.083 would not make the double bottom true. It would keep it alive. That is a smaller claim, and it is the only bullish claim the current tape supports without borrowing from the future.
I do not know which path prints. I know which path the indicators currently favor, and it is not the neckline. Anyone trading this should assume the floor is a question, not an answer, until the daily closes say otherwise. The rest of October has room to surprise. It does not have room to be careless.
This discussion is not investment advice. Levels move, bands recalculate, and a thin market can travel farther than a notebook expects. The useful work is simpler than the targets: watch whether $0.075 holds, whether $0.083 is reclaimed, and whether anything in the middle of the month changes the order flow rather than only the calendar.
