Imagine you’re the captain of a 50,000-ton bulk carrier loaded with grain, sailing through one of the narrowest and most contested stretches of water on the planet. The sun is barely up, the sea is flat calm, and then — out of nowhere — fifteen small boats appear on the horizon, engines screaming, closing in at 30 knots. That exact scenario played out just hours ago in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and frankly, it’s the kind of thing that keeps mariners awake at night.
Another Wake-Up Call in the Red Sea
We’ve become almost numb to bad news coming out of the Red Sea over the past two years, but this incident feels different. It wasn’t a missile or a drone — weapons we’ve sadly grown accustomed to hearing about — but old-school swarming tactics reminiscent of the Somali piracy wave fifteen years ago. Only this time, it’s happening in a war zone already crawling with Houthi militants and international warships.
The vessel in question kept her nerve, maintained speed, and let the embarked security team do what they’re paid (very well) to do. Small-arms fire crackled across the water, the attackers eventually broke off, and the ship continued on her way with everyone safe. A win, yes — but a shaky one.
What Actually Happened at Dawn
Around 03:30 UTC, the bulk carrier was approximately 14 nautical miles west of Yemen’s coastline when the first wave of boats appeared. Some reports say up to fifteen craft, others pin it closer to ten or twelve. Either way, that’s a lot of fiberglass hulls gunning straight for a single steel target.
The captain immediately altered course and increased speed — standard procedure — while the armed guards took positions. When several skiffs closed to within a couple of hundred meters, the security team opened fire. Not indiscriminately, but controlled bursts meant to warn and, if needed, disable engines.
A second wave came minutes later, possibly launched from a larger “mothership” lingering farther out. Again the guards responded, and again the attackers peeled away. By sunrise the threat was gone, the ship was steaming north, and the crew were counting their blessings (and probably their remaining ammunition).
Who Were the Attackers?
That’s the million-dollar question nobody can answer with certainty yet. Three main possibilities are floating around the industry chat groups right now:
- Local Yemeni fishermen aggressively “defending” fishing grounds they believe are being encroached upon by transiting ships
- Opportunistic criminals testing whether a quick boarding might yield valuables or ransom
- Houthi-aligned forces conducting a probing attack or sending a political message
In my view — and I’ve followed this region for years — it’s probably door number one or two, but we can’t dismiss door number three. The Houthis have shown they’re perfectly happy using small boats for surprise attacks when missiles are too risky or too expensive.
“The lack of serious intent from the attackers, as well as the location, suggest the perpetrators are as likely to be local fishermen protecting their nets as actual pirates or militants.”
— Industry maritime analyst speaking on condition of anonymity
Why This Particular Ship?
One detail that raised eyebrows: two days before the incident, the vessel’s AIS destination field was changed to read “Armed Guard Onboard.” Then, hours before the attack, it was switched again to “Chinese Crew.” Both watches.”
Those messages aren’t subtle. Broadcasting the presence of armed guards is a known deterrent — think of it as the maritime equivalent of a “Beware of Dog” sign. The fact the attackers came anyway suggests either desperation, terrible intel, or a deliberate test of resolve.
The Chinese crew notation is also common practice; some groups have shown reluctance to target ships with Chinese nationals since Beijing tends to respond… forcefully when its citizens are threatened at sea.
The Bigger Picture Nobody Wants to Admit
Let’s be blunt: the Bab el-Mandeb is turning into a gauntlet. Insurance premiums for a single transit now routinely tops $100,000 — sometimes far more for certain flags or cargo types — and that’s when you can get coverage at all. Many underwriters have simply walked away from the Red Sea market.
Ships are taking the long detours around the Cape of Good Hope, adding two weeks and hundreds of thousands in fuel costs. Global container availability is tightening again, ocean freight rates are climbing, and inflation watchers are starting to mutter about another supply-chain shock.
And yet, a surprising number of bulk carriers and general cargo ships are still willing to roll the dice through the Red Sea. Why? Because the alternative is so expensive that even a 1-in-100 chance of trouble starts to look acceptable when margins are thin.
Are We Seeing the Return of Piracy?
Not in the 2008–2012 Somali sense — at least not yet. Those were highly organized syndicates with mother ships operating hundreds of miles offshore, taking dozens of vessels hostage and demanding multi-million-dollar ransoms.
What we’re seeing now is more chaotic, more localized, and — paradoxically — potentially more dangerous because the attackers have little to lose and the backdrop is an active war zone.
When you add Iranian-backed drones, anti-ship missiles, sea mines, and now swarming speedboats into the mix, you’ve got a cocktail that no naval task force can fully neutralize.
What Happens Next?
Three scenarios seem plausible:
- Isolated incidents continue but remain containable with armed guards → industry grumbles but adapts
- Attack frequency rises and successes occur → mass rerouting around Africa becomes the new normal
- A high-profile seizure or sinking forces major naval powers to escalate presence dramatically → risk of direct confrontation with Iran/Houthis skyrockets
Personally, I think we’re already sliding toward scenario two. The economics are brutal, and every close call like this morning’s chips away at whatever confidence owners and charterers had left.
One thing is certain: the days of treating the Red Sea as just another transit are over. From now on, every voyage through the Bab el-Mandeb is a calculated gamble — and the house always has an edge.
Stay safe out there, mariners. The sea has always been unforgiving, but right now a narrow stretch between Yemen and Djibouti might be the most unforgiving patch of water on Earth.
