Imagine landing in a foreign capital and having the prime minister himself waiting on the tarmac to greet you. Not his foreign minister, not a deputy, the actual head of government. That’s exactly what happened when Vladimir Putin touched down in New Delhi this week. In a world of diplomatic protocol and carefully staged photo-ops, Narendra Modi breaking tradition like that sends a message louder than any press release ever could.
And the message is pretty simple: India isn’t bending the knee to Washington’s sanctions game.
A Visit That Says More Than Words
Streets lined with alternating Russian and Indian flags. Giant posters screaming “Welcome to India” in both Hindi and Russian. A ceremonial guard of honor at Rashtrapati Bhavan. If you didn’t know better, you’d think some long-lost brother had come home.
But this isn’t just theater. There’s real money on the table, and even bigger principles at stake.
While Western leaders spent the last three years trying to isolate Moscow. India, along with China and much of the Global South, basically responded with a collective shrug and kept doing business. And now, with Donald Trump back in the White House and already swinging the tariff hammer, the stakes have gone through the roof.
The Elephant in the Room: Oil
Let’s not bury the lede. Everyone knows why this visit matters.
Russia has become India’s largest supplier of crude oil pretty much overnight after 2022. Discounted Urals crude, paid for in rupees or dirhams or whatever currency the West isn’t watching too closely. India refines it, sells the products globally (sometimes even back to Europe), and keeps its economy humming while Europe freezes in the dark.
Washington hates this. Hates it so much that the incoming Trump administration has already slapped an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, bringing the total bite to a staggering 50% in some categories, specifically because of continued Russian energy purchases.
“Russia is ready to continue to ensure an uninterrupted supply of fuel for the rapidly growing Indian economy.”
Vladimir Putin, New Delhi, December 2025
Uninterrupted. That word was chosen carefully.
Putin’s Mic-Drop Moment
During an interview with Indian media, Putin delivered what might be the most politically incorrect (and factually devastating) line of the entire trip:
“The United States itself still buys nuclear fuel from us for its own nuclear power plants. That is also fuel. If the U.S. has the right to buy our fuel, why shouldn’t India have the same privilege?”
You could almost hear the collective wince in Washington.
Because he’s right. American utilities quietly import enriched uranium from Russia worth billions every year. The Biden administration even renewed the contracts in 2024 because banning it would have caused electricity prices to explode across the Midwest. So the moral outrage over India buying crude suddenly looks… selective.
As Putin put it, rather dryly: “This question deserves thorough examination.” Translation: let’s talk about your hypocrisy, shall we?
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Despite all the noise about declining Russian oil flows to India (mostly coming from Western think tanks desperate for good news), Putin insisted trade is basically flat year-on-year.
Here’s what’s actually happening:
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- Sanctioned giants like Rosneft and Lukoil have reduced direct exports to India
- Smaller, non-sanctioned Russian producers have magically increased exports by almost the exact same amount
- India keeps getting the same volume of Russian molecules, just wearing a different corporate jersey
Goldman Sachs literally called it “Matryoshka oil trading” – one company disappears, another pops out from inside it. The oil keeps flowing, the discounts stay fat, and Indian refiners keep smiling.
A $100 Billion Ambition
Beyond energy, both sides signed agreements pushing for $100 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2030. That’s more than double current levels.
Russian officials openly said they’ve come to Delhi not just to sell oil, but to buy Indian goods – pharmaceuticals, machinery, consumer products, IT services. They want to balance the trade ledger and make the relationship sanctions-proof.
Think about that. While the West tries to choke Russia’s export revenues, Moscow is pivoting to the world’s fastest-growing major economy and saying: “We’ll buy your stuff too.”
The Bigger Picture Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud
I’ve been following India-Russia relations for years, and what strikes me most is how comfortable both sides now are ignoring Western pressure.
Five years ago, Indian officials would nervously whisper about “managing” relations with Moscow so as not to upset Washington. Today? Modi greets Putin at the airport like an old friend, and Russian delegations talk about making India their top non-sanctioned trading partner.
This isn’t just about oil. It’s about the emergence of a world where countries in the Global South increasingly feel free to choose their own partners, regardless of what the G7 thinks.
China showed the way. Turkey followed. Brazil and South Africa never really stopped. Now India – the biggest of them all – is drawing its own red line.
And perhaps the most interesting aspect? Russia needs India almost as much as India needs Russian oil. Moscow gets hard currency (or rupees it can actually spend), diplomatic cover, and proof that sanctions aren’t the all-powerful weapon they’re made out to be.
What Happens Next?
Trump’s team has made noise about “secondary sanctions” on countries buying Russian energy. But actually imposing them on India – population 1.4 billion, nuclear weapons, massive U.S. arms buyer – would be diplomatic suicide.
More likely: some face-saving deal where India promises to “gradually diversify” while quietly keeping the tankers coming. Washington grumbles, markets shrug, and the new multipolar reality settles in a little deeper.
Meanwhile in Delhi, the flags will keep flying side by side, the oil will keep flowing, and two very pragmatic leaders will keep building a relationship that increasingly looks like the future.
Because in the end, national interest has a way of cutting through ideological noise. And right now, both Russia and India have decided their interests lie with each other – Western sanctions and tariffs be damned.
Sometimes geopolitics really is that simple.
