Picture this: the warm waters of the Caribbean suddenly don’t feel so warm anymore.
Over the last few weeks something has shifted. Warships are cutting through waves that tourists usually associate with cruises and cocktails. Russian diplomats are issuing statements that sound like they were written in the Cold War. And the incoming Trump administration has put the Western Hemisphere at the very top of its national security doctrine – higher than Europe, higher than the Middle East.
In short, Venezuela is back in the crosshairs, and this time Moscow is making it crystal clear whose side it’s on.
A Surprisingly Blunt Warning from Moscow
Last weekend the Kremlin broke its usual calculated silence and delivered what can only be described as a verbal red line.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov didn’t mince words. He said Russia stands shoulder to shoulder with Caracas, condemned Washington’s “desire for unconditional dominance,” and openly urged the next US administration to pull back from the brink of “full-scale conflict.”
“In this hour of trial, we stand shoulder to shoulder with Caracas and the Venezuelan leadership.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
When a nuclear superpower uses language that direct about a country 6,000 miles from its own borders, people should pay attention.
What Actually Triggered the Statement?
The immediate spark appears to be a sharp uptick in US military activity in the southern Caribbean.
Since September, American forces have carried out almost two dozen lethal interdictions against vessels Washington claims were smuggling drugs but which Caracas insists were civilian fishing or supply boats. Helicopter gunships, fast-attack craft, even drone strikes – the tempo feels more Gulf of Aden than Gulf of Paria.
Add to that the steady rotation of destroyers, littoral combat ships, and P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft through bases in Curaçao, Aruba, and Puerto Rico, and you start to understand why nerves in Caracas – and Moscow – are fraying.
The New “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine
Perhaps the biggest bombshell came not from Moscow but from Washington itself.
Just days ago the incoming administration released portions of its new National Security Strategy. One phrase jumped out: the moment analysts read it: the United States will “assert and enforce a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.”
For anyone who slept through history class, the original Monroe Doctrine (1823) basically told European powers to keep their own hemisphere. The Roosevelt Corollary (1904) went further and claimed the right to intervene whenever Washington felt Latin American countries weren’t behaving.
A Trump Corollary in 2025? That sounds like the Roosevelt version on steroids – and explicitly aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence right in America’s backyard.
“…a readjustment of our global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere, and away from theaters whose relative import to American national security has declined…”
Excerpt – 2025 Draft National Security Strategy
Translation: Europe can handle its own problems for a while. Latin America just became priority one.
Why Venezuela Matters More Than Ever
Most people still think of Venezuela as that tragic country with hyperinflation and mass emigration. Fair enough – it’s been through hell. But beneath the chaos lies something the great powers still fight over: oil.
Venezuela sits on the world’s largest proven crude reserves – bigger than Saudi Arabia’s. Even with production crippled by sanctions and mismanagement, the Orinoco Belt alone could swing global markets if it ever came back online at scale.
Right now Russia’s Rosneft and China’s CNPC have massive stakes in those fields. Losing Venezuela would be a strategic disaster for both – and a triumph for American energy dominance.
- Russia has loaned Caracas more than $17 billion over the last fifteen years, much of it secured against future oil deliveries.
- Russian military technicians maintain Venezuela’s S-300 air-defense systems and Su-30 fighters.
- Both countries recently upgraded their partnership to “strategic” level – the same designation Moscow uses with Beijing.
In my view, that last point is the one that really keeps Pentagon planners up at night.
Could This Actually Lead to Direct Clash?
Let’s be honest – nobody in Moscow or Washington wants a shooting war over the Caribbean. Both sides have bigger fish to fry (Ukraine for Russia, China for the US).
But miscalculation is always the biggest risk in these situations. A US boarding team seizes a Russian-flagged tanker. A Venezuelan Su-30 buzzes an American destroyer a little too close. Things spiral faster than diplomats can pick up the phone.
I’ve watched these crises unfold before. The 2008 Georgia war, the 2015 Turkey shoot-down of a Russian jet, the 2020 Soleimani strike – all of them started with someone believing the other side wouldn’t respond.
The Economic Angle Nobody Talks About
There’s also a financial war playing out in plain sight.
Venezuela has become one of the loudest voices pushing de-dollarization inside OPEC and BRICS circles. Maduro’s government has conducted oil trades in yuan, rubles, even crypto. Every barrel sold outside the dollar system is a tiny crack in Washington’s financial hegemony.
If Trump lifts sanctions and Citgo assets return to Caracas (as some of his advisors advocate), the flood of non-dollar oil could accelerate. If he doubles down, Russia and China dig in deeper. Either way, the petrodollar feels the pressure.
What Happens Next? Three Scenarios
- Quiet Deal – Back-channel talks (possibly using the Ukraine de-escalation process as cover) lead to a grand bargain: Russia scales back military cooperation, US eases sanctions and recognizes Maduro’s 2024 “re-election.” Least likely, but cheapest.
- Prolonged Standoff – Both sides keep forces in theater but avoid direct contact. Think Cuban Missile Crisis lite, only with oil platforms instead of launchers. Most likely outcome.
- Limited Kinetic Action – US conducts a short, sharp campaign (blockade, airstrikes on airfields) to force regime change or at least neutralize Russian assets. Venezuela’s military collapses quickly, Russia protests loudly but stays out. Low probability, enormous downside.
My money is on door number two – an expensive, tense, but ultimately manageable cold peace in the Caribbean. Neither Washington nor Moscow has the bandwidth for anything hotter right now.
The Bottom Line
The Caribbean just became the newest chessboard in great-power competition.
Russia’s “shoulder to shoulder” declaration isn’t bluster – it’s a signal that Venezuela has moved from peripheral interest to core Russian security concern. The Trump team’s embrace of a 21st-century Monroe Doctrine is the matching signal from Washington.
Whether this ends in handshakes or gunfire will depend on how seriously both sides take each other’s red lines over the next few months.
One thing feels certain: the era of America treating Latin America as an afterthought is over. And the price of oil – along with global stability – might end up paying the bill.
Stay sharp out there. The next few months in the Caribbean could matter more than most people realize.
