Have you ever watched a chess game where one player nudges a pawn forward, just enough to test their opponent’s reaction, but not enough to spark a full-blown counterattack? That’s exactly what’s unfolding on the global stage right now. Russia, under Vladimir Putin’s calculated gaze, is employing a tactic known as salami-slicing—a slow, deliberate strategy of small provocations designed to push boundaries without triggering a major response. From drone incursions into Poland to quiet territorial expansions in Georgia, these moves are testing the West’s resolve. As someone who’s watched global politics unfold with both fascination and unease, I can’t help but wonder: how far can Russia push before NATO and its allies draw a hard line?
Understanding Russia’s Geopolitical Game
Russia’s recent actions aren’t random acts of aggression; they’re part of a broader playbook. The term salami-slicing perfectly captures this approach—think of it as taking thin slices of territory, influence, or security, one at a time, until you’ve consumed the whole loaf. It’s a strategy that thrives on ambiguity, exploiting the West’s hesitation to escalate conflicts. Let’s dive into how this tactic works and why it’s proving so challenging for NATO.
What Is Salami-Slicing, Exactly?
In geopolitical terms, salami-slicing is about incremental gains. Instead of launching a full-scale invasion that would provoke a unified response, Russia takes small, calculated steps—each one just shy of a red line. These moves are designed to probe weaknesses, gauge reactions, and erode the opponent’s position over time. It’s a strategy rooted in patience and opportunism, and Putin has mastered it.
Salami-slicing is about achieving big goals through small, deniable steps. It’s a tactic that thrives on the West’s reluctance to overreact.
– Geopolitical analyst
Take the 2014 annexation of Crimea, for example. Russia didn’t storm in with tanks blazing; it used “little green men”—unmarked soldiers—to create confusion, followed by a swift referendum that legitimized its control. The West condemned it, but the response was limited. That’s salami-slicing at its finest: bold enough to advance, subtle enough to avoid all-out war.
Recent Provocations: Poland and Beyond
The latest chapter in this saga unfolded recently when Russian drones breached Polish airspace. For the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, Poland scrambled its jets alongside NATO allies to intercept 19 drones. This wasn’t a one-off mistake; it was a deliberate test. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed no intent to strike Polish targets, but the Kremlin’s silence spoke volumes. To me, it feels like Putin is daring NATO to respond while betting on the alliance’s restraint.
Poland isn’t the only target. Estonia has reported similar airspace violations, and Georgia has seen Russia quietly expand its border markers deeper into its territory. These incidents are like pebbles tossed into a pond—small but creating ripples that unsettle the entire region.
- Poland: Drone incursions into NATO airspace, prompting a swift military response.
- Estonia: Repeated violations of airspace, testing NATO’s eastern defenses.
- Georgia: Subtle border encroachments, eroding sovereignty bit by bit.
- Crimea (2014): A textbook case of salami-slicing, with lasting consequences.
Why NATO Struggles to Respond
NATO’s challenge lies in its very strength: unity. With 31 member states, decisions require consensus, which can slow down responses to fast-moving provocations. Russia knows this and exploits it. Every drone incursion or border shift forces NATO to weigh the risks of escalation against the cost of inaction. It’s a delicate balance, and so far, Russia has benefited from the alliance’s caution.
Analysts argue that NATO’s reluctance to engage directly with Russia creates an asymmetric advantage. Russia can push boundaries with minimal risk, knowing that NATO’s primary goal is to avoid a broader conflict. As one expert put it, “Russia’s playing chess while NATO’s playing checkers.”
Russia exploits NATO’s hesitation, creating space for small but significant gains.
– Strategic risk consultant
This dynamic isn’t just about military posturing. Russia’s tactics also include electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns across Europe. These are harder to counter because they don’t involve tanks or troops—they’re intangible slices of the salami, but no less effective.
The West’s Response: Sanctions, Defenses, and Diplomacy
In response to Russia’s latest provocations, NATO allies have taken steps to strengthen their eastern defenses. More troops and equipment are being deployed to Europe’s eastern flank, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states. Economic sanctions are also on the table, with discussions about targeting Russia’s oil revenues—a key funding source for its war machine.
But are these measures enough? I’ve always believed that diplomacy and sanctions, while important, need to be backed by a clear show of strength. Without it, Russia’s salami-slicing will continue unchecked. An emergency U.N. Security Council meeting was convened to address the Polish drone incident, but Russia’s veto power limits the U.N.’s effectiveness.
| Response Type | Action Taken | Effectiveness |
| Military | Deploying troops to eastern flank | Moderate |
| Economic | Proposed sanctions on Russian oil | Low-Moderate |
| Diplomatic | U.N. Security Council meeting | Low |
The West’s response has been swift but cautious. NATO’s Secretary General praised the allied response to the Polish incursion, but analysts warn that symbolic gestures won’t deter Putin. A more robust military posture—think advanced air defenses or preemptive cyber countermeasures—might be necessary to shift the balance.
What Happens If the West Doesn’t Act?
Here’s where things get unsettling. If NATO and its allies continue to respond with restraint, Russia’s provocations will likely escalate. A soft response to the Polish drone incursion could embolden Putin to test other NATO members, perhaps in the Baltics or even further west. It’s a slippery slope, and history shows that appeasing aggressors rarely ends well.
Experts warn that Putin’s ultimate goal isn’t just Ukraine—it’s the broader Western order. By chipping away at NATO’s credibility, Russia hopes to weaken the alliance’s unity and deter future expansions. The softer the West’s reaction, the bolder Russia becomes. As one analyst noted, “Every unpunished slice emboldens the next.”
The West must decide: absorb the slices or draw a line. Hesitation only invites more aggression.
– International relations expert
In my view, this is the crux of the issue. NATO can’t afford to let Russia dictate the terms of engagement. The alliance needs to rethink its defensive posture, perhaps by deploying more advanced systems or conducting joint exercises closer to Russia’s borders. It’s not about provocation—it’s about deterrence.
Lessons from Ukraine
Ukraine’s experience offers a stark warning. For years, Ukrainians have argued that Putin’s ambitions extend beyond their borders, targeting the West as a whole. The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 wasn’t a sudden move—it was the culmination of years of salami-slicing tactics, from cyberattacks to proxy conflicts in Donbas. The West’s initial hesitation to arm Ukraine decisively allowed Russia to gain ground.
Now, with Russian drones buzzing over NATO territory, the stakes are even higher. Ukraine’s resilience has shown that standing firm can work, but it requires unity and resolve—qualities the West must now summon.
- Early Warnings: Ukraine flagged Russia’s broader ambitions years ago.
- Incremental Gains: Russia’s tactics in Ukraine mirror its approach to NATO.
- Need for Unity: A fragmented response only emboldens further aggression.
Looking Ahead: Can NATO Adapt?
As I write this, the question looms: can NATO adapt to Russia’s salami-slicing strategy? The alliance has the resources and expertise, but it needs the political will to act decisively. Strengthening eastern defenses, investing in cyber capabilities, and sending clear diplomatic signals are all critical steps.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect is how this moment could reshape global alliances. If NATO falters, it risks emboldening not just Russia but other actors watching closely—think China or Iran. But if the West responds with strength, it could redefine the rules of engagement for years to come.
In the end, Russia’s salami-slicing is a test of patience, strategy, and resolve. The West can’t afford to keep playing catch-up. It’s time to draw a line, not just to deter Russia but to protect the principles of sovereignty and security that underpin the global order. What do you think—will NATO rise to the challenge, or will Putin keep slicing away?
This situation is evolving fast, and the next few months could be pivotal. Whether it’s more drones, cyberattacks, or border games, one thing’s clear: Russia’s not done testing the West. The question is whether NATO can find the balance between restraint and resolve before the salami runs out.
