Have you ever watched a stock you respect get absolutely crushed for no obvious reason, only to feel in your gut that the market is dead wrong?
That’s exactly where I find myself with Salesforce right now. The company just reported numbers that would make most CEOs throw a party, yet the stock is barely up 2% as I write this. Down 29% year-to-date in 2025. Twenty-nine percent. Let that sink in for a second.
But here’s the twist that keeps me up at night: some of the sharpest minds on Wall Street are pounding the table saying we’re on the cusp of a monster move higher, potentially 70% or more, driven by something they’re calling an AI reacceleration. So who’s right, the skeptical market or the optimistic analysts?
The Earnings That Should Have Mattered (But Didn’t)
Let’s start with what actually happened this week. Salesforce dropped fiscal Q3 adjusted earnings of $3.25 per share, blowing past the $2.86 everyone was expecting. Guidance for the current quarter came in at $11.13–$11.23 billion in revenue, well above the $10.9 billion consensus.
Normally that combination sends a stock flying. Instead we got a shrug and a 1.8% pop that’s already fading. It almost feels personal.
In my experience, when the market refuses to reward a solid beat and raise, it’s usually because investors are obsessed with something bigger, in this case, whether Salesforce can actually return to the double-digit growth glory days. The fear is that it’s a mature company in a maturing market, destined to grow in the mid-single digits forever while smaller, hungrier AI-native players eat its lunch.
That narrative has dominated 2025. And honestly, it’s not crazy. But the analyst notes that flooded my inbox yesterday are making the strongest counter-argument I’ve seen in years.
Agentforce: From Buzzword to Bookings
The single phrase that keeps appearing in bold across almost every note is Agentforce. If you’ve been living under a rock, Agentforce is Salesforce’s autonomous AI agent platform, basically the company’s answer to “we’re not just slapping ChatGPT on top of CRM, we’re building actual agents that do work.”
Management said Agentforce and Data Cloud deals ramped roughly $200 million quarter-over-quarter. That’s real money, even if it’s still small in the grand scheme. More importantly, the anecdotal evidence is getting hard to ignore.
“A number of deal metrics suggest that AI is likely to become more material in FY27.”
That understated line comes from one of the buy-rated analysts, and it captures the mood perfectly. We’re not there yet, but the early indicators are flashing green.
Current Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) – The Metric That Actually Matters
For SaaS investors, revenue is a lagging indicator. The number everyone obsesses over is current remaining performance obligations, or cRPO, basically signed contracts that will hit the P&L over the next 12 months.
Salesforce printed 11% constant-currency cRPO growth, beating their own 9% guidance. That’s the first upside surprise in a while, and it’s the main reason several firms immediately raised numbers.
Think of it like a restaurant with a suddenly full reservation book for the next three months. Revenue might not spike tomorrow, but you know the kitchen is about to get busy.
What the Bulls Are Saying – From $305 to $405 Targets
Let’s run through the new price targets, because the range is honestly wild.
- One major bank moved to $305 (28% upside) saying key growth metrics “lend credibility to the bull case that an AI-driven acceleration is coming.”
- Another house went to $330, highlighting that sales headcount will be up 15% year-over-year by calendar Q4, a massive capacity injection.
- JPMorgan at $365 (53% upside) believes the quarter supports the long-term $60B+ organic revenue framework laid out at Dreamforce.
- Goldman Sachs $385, calling Salesforce “one of the most strategic application software companies in the $1 trillion+ cloud TAM.”
- And the most aggressive call: Morgan Stanley $405, a clean 70% upside, saying “at 13X EV/CY27 FCF we are buyers here.”
That’s not fringe-blog chatter. That’s some of the most respected research teams on the Street basically daring the market to prove them wrong.
The Bear Case Hasn’t Disappeared
To be intellectually honest, the bears still have ammunition. One prominent firm actually kept an underperform rating with only a $223 target, arguing Salesforce remains the biggest, fattest incumbent in a market full of nimble attackers, and expensive acquisitions could destroy value again.
Another house stayed neutral, saying they’re “content staying patient” until 10%+ growth is clearly visible.
Those voices matter. But right now the bull camp feels louder and more data-backed than it has in two years.
Valuation Is Starting to Look Absurd
Let’s talk numbers for a second. The stock is trading around 13 times calendar 2027 free cash flow according to the most bullish models. For a company that still throws off enormous cash, has a durable moat, and is aggressively buying back stock (they just expanded the program again), that feels… cheap.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that when a high-quality name reaches “everyone hates it” territory while simultaneously ramping the one technology narrative the market currently loves (AI agents), strange and wonderful things can happen.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how quiet the stock has been since the report. No victory lap, no 10% gap up, barely any retail chatter. That kind of apathy at a potential inflection point is exactly where career-making returns are born.
So… What Now?
If you believe Agentforce and Data Cloud are going to move the needle in 2026–2027 (and management’s enthusiasm plus our checks suggest they will), then the current price feels like one of those gifts the market occasionally hands patient investors.
If you think Salesforce is forever doomed to 6-8% growth and will eventually get disrupted into oblivion, then sure, sit it out.
Me? I’m leaning toward the former. I’ve seen this movie before, a beloved growth name gets left for dead, trades at silly valuations, then a new product cycle ignites and suddenly everyone is scrambling to catch up.
Only time will tell who’s right. But with targets stretching to $405 and the downside seemingly priced in after a 29% beating, I know which side of the trade looks more comfortable today.
Sometimes the best opportunities hide behind the most boring price action.
