I’ve been watching the crypto markets for years, and there’s something oddly fascinating about meme coins like Shiba Inu. They can soar to insane heights on pure hype, then crash just as dramatically. Right now, as we hit the end of 2025, SHIB is hovering near levels we haven’t seen since late 2023, and it’s got me wondering: is this the calm before another wild ride?
The price action has been brutal this year, down close to 80% from its 2024 peaks. Yet amid all the red candles, a couple of developments caught my eye – a potential bullish chart pattern and a sudden jump in token burns. Let’s unpack what’s really going on with Shiba Inu and whether these signals point to brighter days ahead.
What’s Happening with Shiba Inu Right Now
As of December 22, Shiba Inu sits around that stubborn $0.0000073 mark. It’s been flat lately, almost teasing traders who are waiting for any sign of life. In my experience, these periods of consolidation after a steep drop often precede big moves – but the direction is never guaranteed.
What makes this moment interesting isn’t just the price stagnation. There’s real activity happening behind the scenes that could shift the supply-demand balance. And in the world of meme coins, supply dynamics can make or break momentum.
The Burn Rate Surge That’s Turning Heads
One of the biggest talking points lately has been the dramatic increase in SHIB token burns. Just in the past day, over 7.2 million tokens went up in flames – that’s a 133% jump from the day before. Over the last four days alone, more than 35 million tokens have been permanently removed from circulation.
Now, burns aren’t new to Shiba Inu. The community has been pushing this deflationary mechanism for years, hoping to gradually reduce the massive circulating supply. But these recent spikes feel different. They’re happening during a price downturn, which historically can signal accumulation by believers who want to tighten supply ahead of a potential recovery.
The current circulating supply now stands at around 585 trillion tokens. Every burn chips away at that number, and while the impact is small percentage-wise given the scale, consistent burning over time adds up. I’ve seen similar patterns in other projects where sustained burns eventually contributed to price stability or rebounds.
Reducing supply in a demand-stable environment is basic economics – it creates scarcity, which can support higher valuations over time.
Of course, demand has to be there for scarcity to matter. Which brings us to another encouraging on-chain metric.
Tokens Leaving Exchanges – A Classic Bullish Sign?
On-chain analytics show something pretty telling: SHIB balances on centralized exchanges have been dropping steadily for months. We’re now at the lowest levels in quite some time. When holders move coins to personal wallets or cold storage, it usually means they’re not planning to sell anytime soon.
Think about it – why go through the hassle of withdrawing if you expect further downside? Most people only secure their tokens like this when they believe better prices are coming. It’s not foolproof, but it’s one of those subtle signals that experienced traders watch closely.
- Lower exchange supply reduces immediate selling pressure
- Often precedes price appreciation as available tokens dwindle
- Reflects growing holder conviction despite market weakness
Combine this with the burn activity, and you’re looking at a shrinking float from both ends – burns removing tokens permanently, and holders locking away what’s left. In theory, that’s a recipe for upward pressure if demand picks up even modestly.
The Falling Wedge Pattern Everyone’s Talking About
Perhaps the most exciting development for technical traders is what’s showing up on the daily chart. Shiba Inu has carved out a textbook falling wedge pattern – two converging trendlines sloping downward, with price making lower highs and lower lows.
Why does this matter? Falling wedges are classically bullish reversal patterns, especially when they form after a prolonged downtrend. The narrowing range suggests selling pressure is exhausting itself, and buyers are stepping in earlier each time price dips.
We’ve also got bullish divergence on momentum indicators like the Percentage Price Oscillator. While price has continued making new lows, the oscillator has been forming higher lows – a classic sign that downside momentum is weakening even as price tests support.
If this pattern plays out according to historical precedent, a breakout above the upper trendline could trigger significant upside. The measured move from such patterns often targets the height of the wedge added to the breakout point. For SHIB, that could mean a push toward $0.000010 or higher in the coming weeks.
Technical patterns don’t guarantee outcomes, but when they align with improving fundamentals like burns and reduced exchange supply, the odds definitely tilt bullish.
The Challenges SHIB Still Faces
Look, I’m optimistic about these signals, but it would be irresponsible not to address the headwinds. Shibarium, the layer-2 scaling solution that was supposed to drive real utility, hasn’t exactly taken off as hoped.
Total value locked in the ecosystem sits at just $1.47 million after dropping nearly 20% recently. There haven’t been many meaningful new protocols launching, and overall activity remains subdued. For Shiba Inu to sustain any meaningful rally, it probably needs more than just burns and technical patterns – it needs genuine adoption and use cases.
Trading metrics paint a similar picture of waning enthusiasm. Daily spot volume has climbed to around $96 million, which isn’t terrible but pales compared to peak levels. More concerning is the futures open interest, which has collapsed from over $550 million earlier this year to just $77 million now.
- Declining open interest suggests reduced leverage and speculation
- Lower volume indicates thinner liquidity and less conviction
- Both can make sustained breakouts harder to achieve
These are real hurdles. Meme coins thrive on attention and momentum, and right now SHIB is struggling to generate either. The broader crypto market has been choppy too, with Bitcoin consolidating after its latest run-up.
What Would It Take for a Real Rebound?
In my view, several pieces would need to fall into place for Shiba Inu to break out of this rut convincingly. First and foremost, we’d want to see that falling wedge actually resolve upward with strong volume confirmation.
Beyond the chart, renewed development activity on Shibarium would help tremendously. New partnerships, meaningful protocol launches, or integrations that drive actual transaction volume could reignite interest. The team has been relatively quiet lately – some fresh catalysts would go a long way.
Sustained burn momentum matters too. If the community can maintain or increase these burn rates through mechanisms like transaction fees or voluntary contributions, the deflationary narrative strengthens. Over years, not months, this could meaningfully impact supply dynamics.
Finally, broader market conditions play a huge role. If Bitcoin resumes its uptrend and altcoins catch a bid, meme coins like SHIB often benefit disproportionately on the upside. They’re high-beta plays that amplify market moves.
Key Levels to Watch Going Forward
For traders eyeing positions, here are the levels I’m monitoring closely:
- Immediate resistance: Upper wedge trendline around $0.0000080–$0.0000085
- Psychological target: $0.000010 round level
- Major overhead resistance: 50-day moving average near $0.000012
- Critical support: Year-to-date low at $0.0000069
A clean break and close above the wedge with expanding volume would be the strongest bullish confirmation. Conversely, a drop below that yearly low would invalidate the setup and likely open the door to new lows.
It’s a high-risk setup either way – meme coins are volatile by nature. But the combination of technical, on-chain, and supply signals makes this one of the more interesting risk/reward opportunities in the current market.
Final Thoughts on Shiba Inu’s Outlook
Shiba Inu finds itself at a familiar crossroads. It’s been here before – deep drawdowns followed by explosive recoveries driven by community fervor and perfect timing. The falling wedge, surging burns, and declining exchange supply offer genuine reasons for cautious optimism.
Yet the lack of ecosystem growth and fading trading interest remind us why many remain skeptical. This isn’t a blue-chip asset with predictable fundamentals – it’s a meme coin that lives and dies by sentiment.
Personally, I think the setup is worth watching closely. The risk/reward skews positively if you’re patient and disciplined with position sizing. But as always in crypto, nothing is guaranteed. The next few weeks could tell us whether SHIB is setting up for another legendary run or needs more time to find its bottom.
Whatever happens, it’s a reminder of why this space remains so captivating – massive potential rewards alongside equally massive risks. Stay sharp out there.
