I still remember the night in October 2021 when Shiba Inu touched its all-time high. My phone wouldn’t stop buzzing. Everyone I knew was suddenly a “SHIB millionaire” on paper. Fast forward to today, December 2025, and that same token is trading more than 90% lower, hovering just above $0.000008. It feels like a lifetime ago, yet here we are again with the same question that has haunted every cycle: is this finally the bottom, or just another head-fake before the next leg down?
The honest answer? Nobody knows for sure. But the on-chain data right now is screaming that something is brewing, and it’s getting harder to stay indifferent.
The Calm Before the Storm – Where SHIB Actually Stands Today
Let’s get the boring price action out of the way first. Shiba Inu is currently trapped in a painfully obvious range between roughly $0.0000075 support and $0.0000095 resistance. That $0.0000095 level has rejected the price at least four times in the past months – it’s basically the Berlin Wall of meme-coin charts right now.
Volume? Decent but not crazy – we’re seeing a couple hundred million dollars a day, enough for real moves but not the manic billions we saw in 2021. The daily candle is trying to close above that dreaded resistance as I write this, but we’ve seen these wicks before. Many times.
Still, one thing keeps jumping out at me: the whales are suddenly very, very busy.
Whales Just Moved Over a Trillion SHIB in a Single Day
I’m not exaggerating. On-chain analytics platforms, the number of transactions larger than $100,000 absolutely exploded past 400 in 24 hours. That’s not retail FOMO – that’s institutions, early holders, or very rich degens moving serious size.
Even more interesting: a huge chunk of that volume – around 1.06 trillion SHIB – landed on exchanges. Exchange balances are climbing for the first time in weeks. In crypto, that can mean two completely opposite things:
- Bulls getting ready to provide liquidity for a breakout squeeze
- Smart money quietly distributing into any strength
Both scenarios have happened before with SHIB. Remember early 2024 when whales loaded up at $0.000007 and we ran to $0.000035 in weeks? Or late 2022 when every exchange inflow was followed by another 40% drop? The market has a cruel sense of humor.
Burn Rate Suddenly Wakes Up From the Dead
Another metric that caught my eye: the daily burn rate. For months it was basically flat – maybe a few million tokens here and there, barely moving the needle on a quadrillion-supply coin. Then, almost overnight, we saw days with 200-300% spikes.
Yes, the absolute numbers are still tiny in the grand scheme (we’re talking billions burned against 589 trillion circulating), but the velocity of the change matters. When burns pick up this fast, it usually coincides with rising Shibarium usage or community campaigns. Both are showing green shoots right now.
Supply only moves in one direction on Shiba Inu’s case: slowly down. The question is whether demand finally catches up.
Two Completely Different Futures – Both Plausible
Here’s where it gets fun. There are really only two clean scenarios playing out over the next couple of weeks, and the data supports both equally right now.
Scenario 1 – The Bullish Explosion
Whales aren’t selling – they’re positioning. All those tokens hitting exchanges are there to provide tight spreads when the breakout happens. Price slices through $0.0000095 on expanding volume, shorts get wrecked (current short interest is surprisingly high for a meme coin), and we see a fast move toward $0.000012–$0.000014 in the coming weeks.
Burns continue accelerating, Shibarium transaction count breaks new highs, and the broader meme-coin sector (PEPE, BONK, WIF) rides the wave. Classic risk-on rotation into the assets everyone said were “dead.”
Scenario 2 – The Distribution Trap
Every exchange inflow is early holders finally cashing out after years of waiting. Price wicks into $0.0000095–$0.000010, liquidity looks juicy, retail piles in… and then the rug gets pulled. We bleed back to $0.000007 or lower while whales walk away with profits and the burn rate fades again.
I’ve watched this movie before. It sucks every single time.
What Actually Tips the Scales?
In my experience, three things matter more than anything else for SHIB breakouts:
- Volume on the breakout candle. If we close above $0.0000095 on clearly above-average volume (think $500m+ daily), the probability of follow-through skyrockets.
- Bitcoin behavior. SHIB beta is insane. If BTC is dumping or chopping sideways, meme coins usually suffer even on good news.
- Sustained whale buying, not just transferring. Exchange inflows are fine, but we need to see exchange balances stabilize or drop after the initial positioning.
Right now we have #1 starting to flash green and #3 is the big unknown. #2… well, Bitcoin is doing Bitcoin things at $90k. Could go either way.
So here we are. SHIB is either setting up for its biggest move of 2025 or getting ready to crush hopes one more time. The whales know which one it is. We’ll find out soon enough.
Me? I’m watching that $0.0000095 level like a hawk. A convincing daily close above it and I’m probably buying the dip on the inevitable pullback. Until then… cash is a position too.
Whatever happens, one thing is certain – when SHIB finally decides to move, it won’t be quiet. See you on the other side.
