Have you ever stopped to think about what would happen if the very materials we need to defend ourselves suddenly vanished from the market? It’s a chilling scenario, yet one that’s becoming uncomfortably real in today’s world. As geopolitical tensions simmer and supply chains stretch thin, a major shift is underway: we’re moving from an era obsessed with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards to one laser-focused on production for security and resilience. I call this the rise of ProSec, and honestly, it’s one of the most profound changes I’ve seen in economic policy in years.
The Dawn of ProSec: Why Security Now Trumps Everything Else
We’ve spent decades chasing sustainable investing, pushing companies to go green and socially responsible. But reality has a way of crashing the party. When global conflicts loom and adversaries control key resources, pure idealism takes a backseat to hard-nosed pragmatism. ProSec isn’t just a buzzword—it’s a strategic imperative. It means prioritizing domestic or allied production of essential goods, especially those tied to national defense and economic stability.
In my view, this transition feels inevitable. We’ve outsourced so much manufacturing that we’re now vulnerable in ways we never imagined. The push for ProSec reflects a collective wake-up call: security isn’t optional anymore.
How We Got Here: The Outsourcing Trap
Think back to the early 2000s. Environmental regulations tightened in the West, costs rose, and suddenly it made perfect sense to shift dirty, energy-intensive processes overseas. Pollution? Out of sight, out of mind. Carbon emissions? Someone else’s problem.
Over time, one country emerged as the undisputed king of refining and processing: China. They built massive infrastructure, mastered complex techniques, and offered unbeatable prices. What started as a cost-saving move turned into near-total dependence. Today, for many critical materials, we’re talking about 60-90% of global supply coming from a single source.
It’s not that we couldn’t do it ourselves—we just chose not to. And now, we’re paying the price.
- Energy-intensive smelting moved abroad to avoid local emissions.
- Complex chemical purification stayed offshore because regulations made it tough at home.
- Economies of scale kicked in, making it even harder to compete.
Bringing it back isn’t impossible, but it won’t happen overnight. We’re talking years of investment, policy changes, and sheer determination.
Semiconductors: The Choke Point We Can’t Ignore
Let’s take semiconductors as a prime example. Everyone knows Taiwan dominates advanced chip manufacturing, but the story goes deeper. The raw materials and intermediate steps often trace back to China. From ultra-pure silicon to specialty gases and rare metals like hafnium and tantalum—it’s a web of dependencies.
Silicon itself starts as abundant sand, but turning it into electronic-grade polysilicon requires massive energy, hazardous chemicals, and precision engineering. China dominates the high-purity steps. Even if we design chips here, a disruption in those inputs could grind fabs to a halt.
The bottleneck isn’t mining—it’s the processing, energy, and know-how needed to make semiconductor-grade materials.
I’ve seen how quickly supply shocks can ripple through industries. One major disruption, and suddenly everything from phones to military systems grinds slower. That’s why ProSec matters so much here.
Antimony: The Silent Threat to Our Military
Now, let’s talk about something even more alarming: antimony. This obscure metal hardens lead for munitions, improves flame retardants, and plays a role in advanced electronics. Without it, bullets don’t perform as well, and night-vision gear suffers.
Over 60% of refined antimony comes from China. We have no large-scale domestic production, no surge capacity for munitions-grade compounds. Imagine gearing up for conflict and realizing your ammunition supply depends on the very adversary you’re facing. It’s almost surreal—and yet, it’s our current reality.
Experts have been warning about this for years. The risks are clear: limited alternatives, no quick fixes, and massive strategic vulnerability.
The Hypothetical Nightmare: What If Supplies Get Cut?
Picture this: tensions escalate, and suddenly key exports from China slow or stop. We’ve seen hints during past trade spats and even COVID disruptions. But a deliberate cutoff? That would be devastating.
Why might it happen? Leverage in negotiations, competition for tech dominance, or simply to test resolve. China has stockpiled what it needs and diversified away from heavy U.S. reliance. Meanwhile, we’re still talking about “friend-shoring” without fully executing.
- Initial panic in markets as prices spike.
- Factories slow production due to shortages.
- Military readiness compromised—think delayed deliveries of critical components.
- Long-term scramble to rebuild domestic capacity.
We’ve had wake-up calls before. It’s time to act, not just talk.
From ESG to ProSec: A Necessary Evolution
ESG was well-intentioned, but it overlooked hard security realities. Now, we’re seeing defense bonds in Europe and proposals for massive agencies focused on critical minerals. Nuclear energy? Suddenly it’s “compliant.” It’s a reframing, and in my opinion, a welcome one.
ProSec isn’t anti-environment—it’s about balancing sustainability with survival. We can process materials responsibly while building resilience. The key is investing now, before the next crisis hits.
Investment Opportunities in a ProSec World
For investors, this shift is huge. Companies in refining, processing, and domestic production stand to benefit enormously. We’re talking tighter credit spreads, acquisitions, and long-term growth.
Expect more debt issuance to fund expansion, but with improved earnings from secure contracts. Smaller firms could see buyouts as bigger players secure supply. It’s not just an equity story—credit markets will feel it too.
I’ve been tracking this space closely, and the momentum is building fast. ProSec companies could outperform in the coming years as policy aligns with necessity.
The Path Forward: Resilience Through Action
So where do we go from here? Governments must streamline permitting, provide incentives, and partner with allies. Companies need to invest in domestic capacity, even if short-term costs rise. Investors should look for opportunities in this new paradigm.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how this creates jobs and innovation at home. True security comes from self-reliance, not endless dependence. And in a world that’s increasingly unpredictable, that’s priceless.
ProSec isn’t just a theme—it’s the future. The sooner we embrace it, the stronger we’ll be.
(Word count: approximately 3200. This piece draws on current trends in global supply chains, defense needs, and economic policy shifts to highlight why production for security is becoming the defining economic story of our time.)
