Remember when Solana was the undisputed king of the 2024-2025 bull run? Hitting $252 felt almost routine back in September. Fast forward two months and the picture looks dramatically different. As I write this on November 19, 2025, SOL is hovering just under $140 – that’s more than a 45% haircut in barely eight weeks. And honestly, the charts are starting to whisper something that most of us don’t want to hear.
I’ve been watching Solana since the dark days of the FTX collapse, and I’ve learned one thing: this chain moves fast in both directions. What worries me right now isn’t just the price action – it’s how perfectly everything is lining up for another leg lower.
The One Chart Pattern That Keeps Me Up at Night
Let’s cut straight to it. Solana has carved out a classic rounded top on the daily timeframe – and it’s massive.
This isn’t some vague squiggly line that only looks bearish if you squint. We’re talking about a textbook dome-shaped reversal pattern that started forming right at the September highs and has been gradually curving lower ever since. These patterns form when buying pressure slowly evaporates while sellers patiently distribute at higher and higher levels until – poof – there’s nobody left to buy the dips.
The scariest part? The measured move from this pattern takes us straight down to around $120. That’s not random. That’s basic technical analysis math: you take the height of the dome from peak to neckline and project it downward from the breakdown point.
Why Rounded Tops Actually Work (And Why This One Matters)
I’ve always found rounded tops fascinating because they reveal psychology better than most patterns. Head and shoulders scream “reversal!” Double tops look aggressive. But rounded tops? They’re insidious. They develop slowly while everyone keeps telling themselves “it’s just consolidation” or “healthy correction.”
By the time the pattern completes, the smart money has already left the building.
- Gradual distribution at highs ✓
- Declining volume on bounce attempts ✓
- Lower highs forming the right side of the dome ✓
- Break and retest of neckline support ✓
Solana checks every single box.
The Death Cross That’s About to Confirm Everything
If the rounded top wasn’t enough, we’re also staring down the barrel of a 50/200-day moving average death cross. Yes, I know – death crosses are lagging indicators. But context matters.
When you combine a lagging bearish confirmation with a leading reversal pattern that already has downside measured moves? That’s when these “old school” signals suddenly become very relevant again.
The 50-day SMA is currently at approximately $182 and falling fast. The 200-day sits around $145 and has been flattening. Give it another week or two of sideways-to-down price action and we’ll have confirmation.
In bear markets, death crosses don’t cause the decline – they confirm what smarter participants already knew months earlier.
On-Chain Reality: The Money Is Leaving
Technical patterns don’t exist in vacuum, and Solana’s on-chain metrics are painting an equally concerning picture.
Total Value Locked (TVL) across Solana DeFi protocols has dropped from $35.4 billion in mid-September to just $25.8 billion today. That’s a 27% decline in locked capital while the broader crypto market has been relatively stable.
Even more telling? Stablecoin supply on the network has contracted nearly 20% from its October peak. When stablecoins leave a chain, it usually means one of two things: people are cashing out entirely, or they’re rotating to other ecosystems. Neither is bullish.
| Metric | September Peak | Current (Nov 19) | Change |
| TVL | $35.4 billion | $25.8 billion | -27% |
| Stablecoin Supply | ~$16 billion | $13 billion | -19% |
| Daily Active Users | Peak levels | Declining trend | Significant drop |
These aren’t small moves. This is capital flight.
The ETF Hope That Wasn’t
Remember all the excitement about spot Solana ETFs? Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, Fidelity – everyone launched products. Total inflows have reached almost $420 million, which sounds impressive until you realize that’s spread across multiple funds and represents less than 0.6% of Solana’s market cap.
For context, Bitcoin ETFs were pulling in billions per week at their peak. Solana’s versions have been… fine. Not transformational. Not even particularly impactful on price.
The harsh reality? Institutional money isn’t rushing in to save the day this time.
Where Are the Realistic Price Targets?
Let’s talk numbers – because that’s what everyone really wants to know.
The rounded top pattern’s measured move points to $118–$122. That’s confluence with:
- The 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the recent decline
- Previous major support from April 2025
- High-volume node from the VPVR indicator
- Psychological $120 level
If $120 fails (and in full disclosure, I’ve seen these levels fail spectacularly in bear markets), the next major zone sits around $95–$100. That’s where the real buyers stepped in last time we visited these prices.
Above us? The first real resistance doesn’t appear until $165–$170, which was previous support that flipped to resistance. Until we reclaim that, every bounce should be viewed with extreme skepticism.
What Could Change the Narrative?
Look, I’m not married to the bear case. Markets love proving people wrong. But right now, the bullish arguments feel more like hope than substance.
For the tide to turn, we’d need to see:
- Clear reversal of stablecoin outflows
- TVL starting to climb again
- Break above $170 with conviction
- Bitcoin making new all-time highs (which would help all altcoins)
None of these things are happening right now.
The broader market context matters too. We’re heading into what has historically been a rough period for risk assets. Combine that with potential macroeconomic headwinds, and the path of least resistance still looks lower.
Sometimes the most bearish thing a chart can do is look exactly like every previous top that led to major declines.
Solana is doing exactly that right now.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that these setups don’t always play out perfectly. Sometimes we get surprise rallies that invalidate everything. But when the technicals, on-chain metrics, and broader market sentiment all align this cleanly? Experience tells me to respect the setup.
The $120 level is coming into view. Whether it holds or becomes a pit stop on the way to $95–$100 will tell us a lot about where this cycle is actually headed.
Either way, the next few weeks are going to be fascinating. And probably painful for anyone still holding bags from the September highs.
Disclosure: This analysis represents my personal views based on publicly available data and technical analysis. It is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
