Have you ever watched a coin you really like tease the upside for weeks, only to roll over the moment everyone gets comfortable? That’s exactly what Solana is doing right now, and honestly, it hurts a little.
I’ve been following SOL since the dark days of 2022, and every single time it looks ready to blast off to some ridiculous new target, the market finds a way to remind us who’s really in charge. Right now, that reminder comes in the form of a very clean breakdown below the $146 zone that literally everyone had circled on their charts.
So let’s talk about what actually happened, why it matters, and where price is probably heading next — no hype, no sugar-coating, just the raw technical truth.
The $146 Level Just Flipped From Support to Resistance
For the past few months, $146 acted like a brick wall whenever bears tried to push lower. Multiple sweeps, wicked rejections, huge volume defending the level — classic “this is where the big players are buying” behavior.
Then something changed.
Instead of another violent bounce, we got slow grinding distribution, lower highs on the daily timeframe, and finally a close below the zone with zero real fight from buyers. In trading terms, that’s what we call a confirmed flip. The level that once protected price is now overhead resistance, and the path of least resistance has officially tilted lower.
It’s painful to watch, but it’s also incredibly clear if you zoom out and look at the higher-timeframe structure.
What the Daily Chart Is Really Saying
Let me paint the picture for you.
After the explosive move from $18 in 2023 to over $290 earlier this year, Solana has been stuck in a massive range. The top of that range sits around $260-$290 (all-time high area), and the bottom — well, that’s the part that’s suddenly back in play.
Inside this giant range, $146 represented the midpoint, the “fair value” area where price kept returning. Losing it decisively means the market no longer sees current levels as cheap. That’s a big psychological shift.
- Multiple daily closes under $146 — check
- Volume declining on upside attempts — check
- Lower high printed at roughly $180 — check
- No meaningful buying volume on the breakdown — check
All the ingredients for continuation lower are there. It’s almost textbook.
The Bearish Imbalance Everyone Is Talking About
If you spend any time in crypto Twitter trading circles, you’ve probably seen the term “bearish imbalance” thrown around lately. It’s not just jargon.
When price moves aggressively in one direction and leaves a gap on the chart (an area with very little trading activity), smart money often comes back later to “fill” that inefficiency. Right now, there’s a massive inefficiency between roughly $140 and $120 that was created when SOL rocketed higher earlier this year.
Guess where the next major structural support lives? Yeah, $112-$118. That’s the high-volume node from the previous range, the area where a ton of positions changed hands before the breakout higher. Markets love to revisit those zones, especially when momentum flips.
Price doesn’t move to where we want it to go. It moves to where liquidity lives and imbalances need filling.
That quote lives rent-free in my head because it’s true 80% of the time in crypto.
Why $112 Makes So Much Sense as the Next Stop
Let’s stack the confluence, because this isn’t just one random level I pulled out of thin air.
- Previous range high from late 2023 / early 2024
- High-volume node on the visible range volume profile
- 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from the 2022 lows
- Confluence with the 200-day exponential moving average (currently rising toward that zone)
- Psychological round number just below ($110)
When you get that many different tools pointing to the same area, you pay attention. In my experience, these are exactly the levels where meaningful reversals or strong bounces happen.
Could we overshoot a little lower? Sure. Markets love to fake people out. But $100-$112 feels like the sweet spot where buyers will finally step in aggressively.
What Would Invalidate the Bearish Case?
I’m not married to the downside. If the market wants to prove me wrong, it knows exactly how to do it.
A strong daily close back above $146 — preferably with expanding volume and a clear higher low structure — would completely flip the script. It would tell me that the breakdown was a fake-out designed to shake out weak hands before the real move higher.
Until that happens though, respecting the higher-timeframe trend is the smarter play. Hope is not a strategy.
How I’m Positioning Right Now
Full disclosure — I trimmed some spot positions on the break of $146 because risk/reward simply didn’t make sense anymore with such clear overhead supply.
But I’m not shorting either. The macro environment is still strongly bullish, and I’ve lived through enough crypto cycles to know that trying to catch exact bottoms is a fool’s game.
Instead, I’m doing what I always do in these situations: building dry powder and setting alerts around that $112-$118 zone. If we get there and see strong reversal candles with volume, I’ll be buying aggressively. If we blow through it with conviction, then we reassess the larger picture.
That’s the beauty of technical analysis — it gives you predefined levels where the probability shifts dramatically in your favor.
Final Thoughts: Patience Wins
Look, nobody likes watching their favorite coin dump 20-30% in a couple weeks. But if you’ve been around crypto long enough, you know these pullbacks are where real wealth is made.
The traders who panic sell here are the same ones who will be chasing at $300 later, wondering how they missed it again.
Solana isn’t going anywhere. The technology is still one of the best in the game, adoption keeps growing, and the chart — while ugly right now — is doing exactly what charts do after parabolic moves: consolidating and redistributing.
Stay patient. Respect the levels. Let the market come to you.
And if we do end up sweeping $112? Well, I’ll be waiting there with open orders and a smile — because that’s where the next leg higher usually begins.
Trading is 10% analysis and 90% emotional control. Right now, the Solana chart is testing both. Let’s see who passes.
