Imagine spending years researching something everyone else seems obsessed with, running pilots, talking to banks and fintechs, only to stand up one day and say: “You know what? We actually don’t need this right now.”
That’s exactly what the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just did with its retail central bank digital currency ambitions. After half a decade of studies, sandbox tests, and endless stakeholder meetings, the verdict is in — and it’s surprisingly sober.
The Big Reveal: No Rush for a Digital Rand in Your Wallet
On 28 November 2025 the SARB dropped a position paper that basically says: a retail CBDC is technically possible, sure. We could build it tomorrow if we really wanted to. But do we need it right now? Not really.
That’s a sentence you don’t hear often in the CBDC world, where central banks usually race to keep up with China or justify multi-year projects. South Africa just took a breath, looked around, and decided the juice isn’t worth the squeeze — at least not for everyday people.
Why Put Retail CBDC on Ice?
The reasoning is actually pretty pragmatic. The bank wants to pour resources into fixing the plumbing of the national payment system first — think real-time gross settlement upgrades, better interoperability, and bringing non-banks into the fold.
In plain English: South Africa already has decent digital payment options. Mobile money, card networks, and instant transfers cover most bases. A retail CBDC would mostly duplicate what already works, while adding complexity and cost.
- Cash is still widely used, especially in rural areas
- Banked population keeps growing steadily
- Existing instant payment systems are cheap and fast
- Privacy concerns around a fully traceable digital rand are real
The SARB even admits that any future retail version would have to match cash feature-for-feature — offline capability, universal acceptance, rock-solid privacy — otherwise people simply won’t bother.
“The analysis does not reveal a strong immediate need for such an instrument.”
South African Reserve Bank, November 2025
Wholesale CBDC: The New Priority
While retail gets parked, wholesale is getting the red-carpet treatment. The central bank is shifting gears toward exploring how a digital rand could make interbank settlement faster, cheaper, and programmable.
Think tokenized commercial bank money settling instantly on a shared ledger, cross-border payments that don’t cost an arm and a leg, or securities settlement that finishes in seconds instead of days. That’s the vision now.
In my view, this is actually the smarter play. Wholesale touches the parts of the financial system where friction costs real money — billions, in fact. Retail CBDCs often feel more like political projects than economic ones. South Africa just called the bluff.
The Stablecoin Elephant in the Room
Here’s where things get spicy. While the SARB is relaxed about its own retail CBDC, it’s visibly nervous about the explosion of stablecoins inside the country.
Trading volumes went from under 4 billion rand in 2022 to almost 80 billion rand by late 2025. That’s not pocket change — that’s a parallel monetary system running on US dollar pegs, completely outside central bank control.
The bank isn’t wrong to worry. Stablecoins offer instant, cheap cross-border transfers and a hedge against rand volatility, which explains their popularity. But they also expose the financial system to offshore issuers, redemption risks, and potential contagion if a big one fails.
“Unregulated growth of stablecoins and crypto assets presents significant risks to financial stability.”
South African authorities, recent statements
Regulation Is Coming — Slowly
The regulatory cavalry is on the way, but it’s moving at government speed. Crypto exchanges are already getting licenses from the Financial Sector Conduct Authority, but a comprehensive framework tying everything together is still missing.
Until that lands, South Africa finds itself in an awkward middle ground: officially cautious, practically tolerant, and quietly impressed by how fast private money has filled the gaps the state hasn’t.
Lessons from the Rest of the World
Only three countries have actually launched retail CBDCs — Nigeria (eNaira), the Bahamas (Sand Dollar), and Jamaica (Jam-Dex). Adoption has been, let’s be kind, underwhelming. Nigeria’s eNaira, for example, processes a tiny fraction of the volume handled by mobile money giants like M-Pesa next door in Kenya.
South Africa looked at that data and decided not to join the club just for the sake of it. Honestly? Respect.
Meanwhile, places like the European Central Bank and the Fed are still years away from decisions. The SARB just leapfrogged the debate by saying: we’ll build the parts that actually matter first.
What Happens Next?
The door isn’t closed forever. The central bank explicitly says circumstances could change — think massive stablecoin crisis, sudden loss of confidence in commercial bank money, or a breakthrough that makes privacy-preserving retail CBDC trivial.
For now, though, expect:
- Deeper wholesale CBDC experimentation, possibly with international partners
- Tighter stablecoin and crypto regulation in 2026–2027
- Continued upgrades to the national payment system
- A watchful eye on global developments
One day we might still see a digital rand in ordinary wallets. Just not because we panicked into building it.
In a world full of CBDC hype, South Africa just showed that sometimes the most radical move is choosing not to follow the crowd. And maybe — just maybe — that’s the kind of clarity the rest of us needed to hear.
