Some Fridays in the market just feel different, don’t they?
You wake up, grab your coffee, and the tape is quietly grinding higher for the fourth straight day. The S&P 500 is now less than one percent away from the all-time closing high it printed back in late October. It’s that delicious kind of tension where everything looks calm on the surface, but you know the calendar is absolutely loaded for next week. I’ve been doing this long enough to recognize the setup: the market is trying to price in perfection while three separate catalyst events are lined up like dominoes.
So let’s talk about what actually moved the needle today and, more importantly, what’s coming that could either send us to new highs or give the bears something to chew on.
A Quietly Encouraging Macro Backdrop
This morning we finally got the September core PCE number—the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge—thanks to the government shutdown delay. Headline came in at 2.8% year-over-year, a touch cooler than the 2.9% most people were modeling. Not earth-shattering, but definitely not hot enough to make anyone rethink the December rate cut that’s currently priced at basically 100%.
Then the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment print rolled in stronger than expected, with inflation expectations continuing to drift lower. Translation? The dreaded “stagflation” ghost that haunted markets earlier this year is looking more and more like a Halloween costume nobody’s wearing anymore.
Put it all together and the bond market barely budged, the dollar stayed quiet, and stocks just kept creeping higher. Classic pre-FOMC grind.
Broadcom: The One Everyone Is Circling
If I had to pick one stock that feels like it’s sitting on a powder keg of potential—good or bad—it’s Broadcom.
Shares are still sit more than 5% below the record closing high they hit right after Thanksgiving, which honestly feels a little strange given how strong the AI narrative has been. But Wall Street never lets a good story stay cheap for long when earnings are approaching.
This morning Mizuho came out swinging, reiterating Broadcom as their top semiconductor pick and basically shouting from the rooftops that investors should own it into next Thursday’s report. Their argument boils down to something pretty compelling: Google’s custom tensor processing units (TPUs)—the ones Broadcom co-designed—are starting to show up in more cloud providers and even some of the newer “neocloud” players.
“Expanding TPU reach creates meaningful 2026 upside that isn’t in the numbers yet.”
– Mizuho analyst note, Dec 5
Oppenheimer piled on with a price-target bump to $435 (from $400) while keeping an Outperform rating. They’re modeling a beat-and-raise quarter and think guidance could surprise to the high end.
Look, I’m not in the business of front-running earnings, but when two heavyweight firms line up like this a week out, it at least makes you pay attention. The AI custom-chip gravy train has been Nvidia’s story for two years; if Broadcom is quietly carving out a bigger slice, that’s the kind of narrative shift that can push a $700+ billion company significantly higher.
GE Vernova: The Forgotten Energy Transition Giant
Tuesday evening feels like a lifetime away in market time, but that’s when GE Vernova management sits down with investors for a proper update.
Here’s why I think this event is flying a bit under the radar: orders for gas turbines and grid equipment have been on fire. Data centers need power—lots of it—and natural gas plus electrification upgrades are the only realistic way to deliver it in the near term. Vernova sits right in the middle of both trends.
Most sell-side desks are already baking in a 2025 guidance raise, but the whisper I keep hearing is that management might also lift the 2028 long-term outlook. That would be huge because it extends the growth runway at a time when many investors still think of GE as a slow-moving conglomerate relic.
In my experience, when a freshly spun-off company starts talking multi-year targets with conviction, the stock tends to re-rate quickly. We’ve seen it with Carrier, Otis, even GE HealthCare. Vernova could be next.
Costco: Are November Sales Really That Bad?
Costco shares dropped almost 3% yesterday after the November sales update, with some folks screaming about deceleration. I watched the conference call and walked away thinking the reaction was overdone.
Yes, comparable sales ex-gas came in a touch light, but traffic was still up mid-single digits and the company continues to gain share in practically every category that matters. More importantly, membership renewal rates remain north of 90%—a moat most retailers would kill for.
Thursday after the close we get the full December-quarter earnings report. My base case is that gross margins hold up better than feared (thanks to continued strength in discretionary categories) and guidance for the second half of the fiscal year comes in solid.
If I’m right, yesterday’s dip could look like a gift in hindsight.
Putting It All Together
We’re heading into a Fed meeting that’s almost certainly going to deliver a 25 bps cut, with three separate company-specific catalysts that could move meaningful parts of the S&P 500.
- Broadcom has the highest octane upside if AI custom silicon demand is broadening
- GE Vernova offers the cleanest energy-transition-meets-AI-power-demand story
- Costco is the defensive name that still has room to run if consumer spending holds
Perhaps the most interesting aspect? All three feel slightly “left for dead” relative to the mega-cap darlings that have driven the rally this year. That’s usually where the next leg of outperformance comes from.
The S&P 500 is trying its hardest to grind out a fifth straight day and lock in back-to-back weekly gains for the first time since October. My gut says it succeeds, but the real fireworks probably don’t start until Tuesday night.
Either way, next week isn’t going to be boring. And in this market, that’s about the highest compliment you can pay.
Disclosure: Positions held in AVGO, GEV, and COST at the time of writing.
