Remember when the market felt unstoppable just last week? Five straight days of gains, animal spirits running wild, everyone talking about the Santa Claus rally starting early. And then Monday happened.
It wasn’t a disaster by any stretch, but it was more like someone quietly let the air out of the balloon. The kind of day that makes you check your portfolio twice and wonder if the party’s already over. So before you hit that buy button Tuesday morning, here are the five stories actually moving the needle right now.
The Market Finally Took a Breather – And Crypto Was the Trigger
Monday snapped the longest winning streak for the major indexes since the summer. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, Nasdaq fell almost 1.2%, and the Dow gave back 350 points. Even more telling? The Russell 2000, everyone’s favorite small-cap barometer, slid over 1.5%. That’s notable because small caps had been leading the charge during the post-election melt-up.
But here’s what caught my eye: the real culprit wasn’t bonds, wasn’t oil, wasn’t even the usual suspects. It was a brutal crypto sell-off. Bitcoin dropped 6%—its worst day since March—and the pain rippled straight into public markets. You could almost feel the risk-off mood shift in real time.
Crypto-related stocks got smoked. Coinbase fell 8%, MicroStrategy (the corporate bitcoin whale) plunged 12%, and even some of the miners dropped double digits. When the “easy money” trade starts bleeding, the rest of the speculative playground tends to follow. I’ve seen this movie before.
“When bitcoin sneezes, high-beta stocks catch a cold. That’s the environment we’re in right now.”
– Senior portfolio manager at a $15B hedge fund
The one bright spot? Retail. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) actually climbed while everything else bled, pushing its weekly gain past 6%. Holiday shopping momentum looks real, even if the broader risk appetite took a nap.
Who’s Going to Replace Jerome Powell?
President Trump dropped a bombshell over the weekend: he already knows who his next Fed chair will be. He just isn’t telling us yet. Classic Trump.
But the smart money—and literally the prediction markets—are betting heavily on current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Polymarket has him at over 70% probability, and Kalshi isn’t far behind. Hassett himself went on Fox over the weekend and said he’d “be happy to serve” if asked. Translation: it’s probably him.
Why does this matter? Because the next Fed chair walks into the most politically charged central bank environment in decades. Rates are still restrictive, inflation isn’t dead, growth is slowing in some pockets, and you’ve got a White House that’s made no secret of wanting cheaper money. The FOMC is already split—some members want to pause cuts entirely, others want to keep going. Good luck threading that needle.
In my view, Hassett would likely be more dovish than Powell, or at least more willing to align with administration priorities. That could mean lower rates stay lower for longer—or it could mean markets throw a tantrum if they think independence is eroding. Either way, 2026 just got a lot more interesting.
Apple’s AI Boss Just Quit – At the Worst Possible Time
Talk about bad optics. On the very day the market is questioning every big-tech AI story, Apple announced that John Giannandrea—the man in charge of all its artificial intelligence efforts—is stepping down. He’s being replaced by Amar Subramanya, a well-respected veteran from Google and Microsoft, but still. Timing is everything.
Apple Intelligence has been… fine? It’s rolling out slowly, it’s not terrible, but it’s also not blowing anyone’s mind. Meanwhile OpenAI, Google, and even Meta are shipping features that feel light-years ahead in capability. Investors have noticed. Apple shares are up huge this year, but the “AI trade” has largely passed them by.
This departure feels like an admission that the current strategy isn’t working fast enough. And with Siri still struggling to schedule a basic calendar event half the time, the pressure is only going to build. If the next iPhone cycle doesn’t deliver a genuinely useful AI experience, that $3.5 trillion valuation starts looking pretty rich.
Costco Is Suing the White House Over Tariffs
You know tariffs are getting real when Costco—America’s favorite bulk-everything warehouse—files a federal lawsuit against them.
Last week the company asked for a full refund of every tariff dollar it’s paid this year, plus an injunction to stop future collection while the Supreme Court decides legality. They’re not alone; dozens of importers have filed similar suits. But when a company with Costco’s clout steps up, people listen.
The timing pressure is intense. There’s apparently a December 15 cutoff after which paid duties become non-refundable, even if the courts eventually strike down the tariffs. Costco is basically saying: we can’t wait and risk billions.
- Higher import costs → higher prices for members
- Competitive disadvantage vs. domestic-focused rivals
- Supply-chain chaos if tariffs keep escalating
The White House response was predictably spicy, claiming the lawsuit proves the tariffs are “working.” I’m not sure most Costco shoppers will see it that way when rotisserie chickens hit $9.99.
Shopify Crashed on Cyber Monday – Yes, Really
If you tried to check out on certain online stores Monday afternoon and everything froze, you weren’t alone. Shopify, which powers over 10% of U.S. e-commerce, suffered a multi-hour outage right in the heart of Cyber Monday traffic.
Merchants couldn’t log in. Point-of-sale systems went dark in physical stores. Customers abandoned carts in droves. Shares dropped almost 6% as the scope of the mess became clear.
By late afternoon they claimed systems were recovering, but the damage was done. When you’re the backbone for millions of small and medium businesses on the biggest online shopping day of the year, reliability isn’t optional.
Ironically, Amazon—Shopify’s biggest indirect competitor—had zero reported issues. Sometimes the market rewards scale in ways that feel unfair.
What I’m Watching Tuesday Morning
- Whether bitcoin can hold $90,000 – a break below could trigger another leg down in risk assets
- Retail names after the bell – Ulta, CrowdStrike, and others report this week
- Any clarification (or lack thereof) on the Fed chair nomination timeline
- 10-year Treasury yield – if it pushes back above 4.5%, growth stocks will feel it
- Nvidia’s quiet $2 billion Synopsys stake – that partnership could be bigger than people realize
Look, no one rings a bell at the top, but the shift in tone Monday felt meaningful. The easy gains of November are probably behind us. From here on out, every rally is going to be questioned, every dip is going to feel deeper.
That doesn’t mean sell everything and hide under the bed. It just means the margin of safety got a little thinner overnight. In environments like this, cash starts looking attractive again, and individual stock selection matters more than ever.
Stay sharp out there.
