Have you ever had one of those weeks where the market feels like it’s holding its breath, waiting for one piece of data to decide everyone’s mood for the next month? That was exactly this past week.
A delayed inflation report finally dropped, the Fed’s favorite gauge came in softer than feared, and suddenly the probability of a December rate cut jumped back toward certainty. Stocks didn’t exactly explode higher, but they quietly ground out gains anyway. Sometimes that’s even more telling than a blow-off rally.
A Classic “Good News Is Good News” Week
The major indexes closed the week in the green, nothing dramatic, but solidly positive. The S&P 500 added about 0.3%, the Nasdaq almost 1%, and even the Dow managed half a percent. More importantly, we’re now just a hair away from the all-time high set in late October.
In my experience, these quiet grinding weeks after a scare often mark the moment when the market decides the worst is behind it. Remember mid-November? Everything looked shaky. Fast forward two weeks and the narrative has completely flipped.
The Inflation Print Everyone Was Waiting For
Friday morning brought the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the one the Federal Reserve actually cares about. Core PCE rose less than expected year-over-year, giving markets exactly the confirmation they wanted.
Funny how a government shutdown delayed the release, yet when it finally arrived it felt almost perfectly timed, right before next week’s FOMC meeting. You can’t script it better than that.
“The path to a soft landing remains intact.”
– Common refrain on trading desks Friday morning
Traders immediately pushed the probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week to well over 80%. That’s the kind of clarity the market loves.
Meta Finally Faces Reality on the Metaverse Dream
Let’s be honest, most of us rolled our eyes when reports surfaced that Meta plans to slash metaverse-related spending by as much as 30%. Not because it’s a bad idea, quite the opposite. It feels long overdue.
The stock jumped 4% on the week, which tells you everything about investor sentiment. People aren’t sad to see Reality Labs bleed less cash. They’re relieved.
Look, I’ve always believed the long-term vision has merit, but burning $15–20 billion a year with no clear monetization timeline was testing even the most patient shareholders. Shifting focus toward smart glasses and generative AI initiatives that can actually generate revenue this decade? That’s just common sense.
Perhaps the most interesting part: the stock still trades at a reasonable forward P/E despite the massive AI opportunity ahead. Sometimes the market rewards patience.
Salesforce Reminds Everyone It’s Still a Growth Company
If there was a single standout winner this week, it was Salesforce. Shares rocketed 13% after crushing earnings expectations and, more importantly, showing real traction with Agentforce, their autonomous AI agent platform.
I’ve followed this name for years, and I remember when investors panicked that generative AI would cannibalize the core CRM business. Wednesday night’s report basically laughed at that fear.
- Revenue beat
- Margin expansion
- Raised full-year guidance
- Disclosure of meaningful paid Agentforce deals
Marc Benioff went on television and basically said AI isn’t going to replace Salesforce, it’s going to make Salesforce more valuable because every customer will want AI agents running on top of their customer data. Hard to argue with that logic.
Yes, the stock is still down 22% year-to-date. That just means the easy negative narrative is already priced in, while the AI upside is still being discovered. Classic setup if you ask me.
CrowdStrike Delivers Another “Trophy Quarter”
Speaking of companies proving doubters wrong, CrowdStrike reported Tuesday evening and absolutely knocked it out of the park. Record free cash flow, record ARR, record operating income, the list goes on.
The stock barely moved on the week, which at this point feels like tradition. Same thing happened last quarter, and the quarter before that. The pattern is clear: initial indifference → quiet accumulation → new all-time highs weeks later.
Cybersecurity remains one of the few secular growth themes that actually delivers consistent execution. When the macro backdrop stabilizes, these names tend to lead the next leg higher.
Portfolio Moves: Playing Both Offense and Defense
Three meaningful trades this week, each with a clear rationale.
- Monday: Added to Boeing once the post-earnings selling exhaustion looked complete. No one likes catching falling knives, but waiting for stabilization worked out nicely.
- Tuesday: Bought more Procter & Gamble on weakness. Consumer staples feel like smart defense if the magnificent-seven trade takes a breather.
- Wednesday: Trimmed some Goldman Sachs after it hit a fresh all-time high. Taking profits feels good when a position is up huge, still keeping the core holding for the long haul.
That’s the beauty of active management, disciplined portfolio management, you’re never all-in on one theme. You adjust as the evidence changes.
What I’m Watching Next Week
Obviously the Fed decision dominates the calendar, but don’t sleep on these either:
- November jobs report (Friday)
- CPI print the following week (sets tone for January meeting)
- Continued earnings from software names (do they echo Salesforce’s confidence?)
- Any updates on fiscal stimulus or tariff policy out of Washington
My base case remains constructive. The economy is slowing but not collapsing, inflation is trending in the right direction, and corporate America is adapting to higher rates better than many feared.
Throw in the usual year-end seasonality tailwind, and it feels like the path of least resistance is still higher, even if we get a few 2% pullbacks along the way.
Here’s to hoping next week brings more clarity, and maybe even a fresh all-time high to close out 2025 on a strong note. The market has earned it.
