Some moments in finance feel almost personal, don’t they? When you’ve followed a story for years and suddenly the plot takes a sharp, unexpected turn. That’s exactly how I felt this morning when the news broke: Todd Combs, one of the two people Warren Buffett personally chose to help steer his empire into the future, is leaving Berkshire Hathaway.
Just like that. After fifteen years. After managing tens of billions. After running Geico. He’s gone.
And not to start his own hedge fund or retire to a beach somewhere. No. He’s heading to JPMorgan Chase to run a brand-new $10 billion strategic investment vehicle that reads like it was designed for the current political moment.
A Changing of the Guard Everyone Saw Coming – But Not Like This
Let’s be honest. We’ve all been watching the Berkshire succession drama unfold for a decade. Warren Buffett is 95. Charlie Munger has passed. Greg Abel was officially named heir apparent a few years ago. The question was never if things would change, but how and when.
Most of us assumed Todd Combs and Ted Weschler – the two “young” investment managers Buffett hired to eventually handle the stock portfolio – would stay put. Maybe one of them would become Chief Investment Officer someday. Maybe they’d share the role. The portfolio is $283 billion, after all. You don’t just walk away from that kind of responsibility.
Except Todd Combs just did.
What JPMorgan Just Built – And Why It Matters
First, let’s talk about the job he’s taking. This isn’t some random portfolio manager gig. JPMorgan announced in October a $1.5 trillion financing commitment over ten years – one of the largest corporate pledges ever – with a very specific slice carved out: a $10 billion Strategic Investment Group focused on companies critical to national security.
Translation? Defense. Aerospace. Healthcare infrastructure. Energy independence. The kind of industries that fit neatly into an “America First” framework.
Banks rarely take direct equity stakes in industrial companies. Regulation makes it messy. But this vehicle appears designed to get around the usual obstacles. And the advisory council? Jeff Bezos. Michael Dell. Condoleezza Rice. This isn’t a side project. This is Jamie Dimon swinging for the fences.
“JPMorgan, as usually is the case, has made a good decision.”
– Warren Buffett’s comment on Combs’ departure
That dry, almost understated praise from Buffett actually says volumes. He’s not bitter. He’s not surprised. He’s signaling: this move makes sense.
Why Now? Reading Between the Lines
Here’s where it gets interesting. Last year, Buffett dropped a quiet bombshell at the annual meeting. He said the next CEO – meaning Greg Abel – should have final say over capital allocation, including stock picks.
Think about that. For decades, Buffett himself was the sole decider on the equity portfolio. Suddenly, the two deputies who spent years proving themselves learn that the ultimate authority will rest with an operations guy, not an investor.
I’m not saying Combs was insulted. But if you’re 54 years old, have a track record most fund managers would kill for, and just realized the top investment job might never actually be yours… well, a phone call from Jamie Dimon starts sounding pretty good.
- At Berkshire: Shared responsibility for stock picking, no final authority, CEO is an energy/railroad/insurance operator
- At JPMorgan: Run your own $10 billion fund, direct report to Dimon, clear mission, equity upside, national profile
From the outside, it’s hard to see this as anything but a massive upgrade in autonomy and influence.
The Geico Chapter – Often Overlooked
One part of the Combs story that doesn’t get enough attention: he actually ran Geico day-to-day since 2020. And he crushed it.
When he took over, the auto insurance market was a bloodbath – pandemic claims weirdness, inflation, used-car prices through the roof. A lot of insurers lost money hand over fist. Geico went the other way. Combs cut advertising aggressively when pricing was irrational, then turned the spigot back on at exactly the right moment. Profitability came roaring back.
In many ways, that performance is what made him bulletproof inside Berkshire – and incredibly attractive to the outside world.
What Happens to Berkshire’s Investment Process Now?
This is the question keeping a certain corner of the value-investing world up at night.
Ted Weschler stays – at least for now. But the two-man team Buffett built as his investment safety net just became a one-man show. And with Abel set to take over as CEO very soon (possibly as early as year-end), the entire capital allocation framework is in flux.
- Will Abel lean more heavily on Weschler?
- Will they hire someone new?
- Will the equity portfolio become less active and more index-like?
- Or – perhaps most intriguingly – will Berkshire finally start doing big buyouts again?
Remember, Abel’s background is deal-making and operations, not public-market stock picking. He might very well prefer swinging at whole companies rather than buying 5–10% stakes in public ones.
The Broader Trend: Talent Migration from Omaha
Combs isn’t the first high-profile departure, and he won’t be the last. Tracy Britt Cool left years ago and started her own shop. Ted and Todd were supposed to be the long-term solution. Now one of them is gone.
In my view, this is the inevitable gravity of a $1.1 trillion conglomerate run for decades by a once-in-a-century genius. When the founder is still there at 95, the next generation eventually realizes their biggest opportunities might lie elsewhere.
It’s not disloyalty. It’s human nature.
Final Thoughts – A Respectful Exit, A New Chapter
Both Buffett and Dimon handled this with class. Buffett’s quote was gracious. Dimon called Combs “one of the greatest investors and leaders I’ve known.” Combs himself resigned from JPMorgan’s board to avoid any appearance of conflict before the move was official.
In an industry that sometimes eats its young and celebrates musical chairs, this felt… mature.
Todd Combs gets to run his own show with real money and a mission that matters. Berkshire gets clarity on its post-Buffett structure sooner rather than later. And investors? We get one more reminder that even the most carefully laid succession plans rarely survive first contact with reality.
Change at the top of iconic institutions is never easy. But sometimes it’s exactly what everyone needs.
Only time will tell whether Combs builds something that rivals the Berkshire he’s leaving – or whether Berkshire without its investment deputies still feels like the same fortress it’s been for fifty years.
Either way, a fascinating new chapter just began. And finance watchers like us get front-row seats.
