Tariffs Overtake AI in Corporate Earnings Talks

Have you ever sat through a corporate earnings call and noticed how certain buzzwords dominate the conversation? For years, artificial intelligence was the star of the show, with CEOs tossing around terms like “machine learning” and “automation” like confetti. But in 2025, there’s a new headliner: tariffs. According to recent analyses, the word “tariff” has been mentioned over 350 times in S&P 500 earnings calls this quarter, leaving AI in the dust with fewer than 200 mentions. As someone who’s followed market trends for years, I find this shift fascinating—it’s like watching a new character steal the spotlight in a long-running drama.

Why Tariffs Are the Talk of the Town

The surge in tariff mentions isn’t just a linguistic quirk; it’s a reflection of a seismic shift in the corporate world. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, announced in April 2025, have sent shockwaves through boardrooms. These policies, which include steep levies on imports, have forced companies to rethink everything from supply chains to pricing strategies. Unlike AI, which promised long-term innovation, tariffs are an immediate, tangible threat—or opportunity, depending on who you ask.

The uncertainty around tariffs is like trying to forecast the weather in a hurricane. We’re bracing for impact but don’t know exactly where it’ll hit.

– Head of Investor Relations at a major manufacturing firm

Why the obsession with tariffs? For one, they’re unpredictable. Trump’s decision to suspend reciprocal tariffs until July 2025 has left companies in a holding pattern, unsure whether to adjust forecasts or sit tight. This uncertainty is palpable in earnings calls, where executives are fielding tough questions from analysts about how these trade policies will affect profitability.

The Economic Ripple Effect

Tariffs don’t just affect corporate balance sheets; they ripple through the entire economy. One of the biggest concerns is their potential to drive up prices. When import costs rise, companies often pass those costs onto consumers, which can dampen spending. In an April 2025 survey, over 60% of CEOs predicted an economic slowdown within six months, with nearly three-fourths saying tariffs would hurt their bottom line. That’s a lot of nervous executives.

Consumer sentiment is already taking a hit. A recent index tracking public confidence in the economy dropped to historic lows, a trend some attribute to fears of rising prices for imported goods. Small businesses, in particular, are feeling the pinch, as they lack the resources to absorb these costs.

• Price Hikes: Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, leading to higher retail prices.
• Reduced Spending: As prices rise, consumers may cut back, slowing economic growth.
Seven Economic Slowdown: Over 60% of CEOs predict a slowdown within six months.

Perhaps the most unsettling aspect is the fear of a full-blown recession. If tariffs choke consumer spending and disrupt global supply chains, the economy could stall. I’ve seen cycles like this before, and while it’s too early to hit the panic button, the warning signs are hard to ignore.

Corporate Strategies in Flux

So, how are companies responding? Many are playing it safe, keeping financial forecasts unchanged until the tariff landscape becomes clearer. Others are tweaking their strategies to account for potential disruptions. For example, a newly spun-off medical equipment company reported strong performance but chose not to raise its earnings guidance, citing tariffs as a major headwind.

Without tariffs, we’d be raising our outlook based on the momentum we’re seeing. But these trade policies are a wildcard we can’t ignore.

– CEO of a medical equipment firm

Some companies are even rethinking their supply chains. Moving production to domestic facilities or sourcing materials from non-tariffed countries could mitigate the impact, but these shifts take time and money. For now, many firms are in wait-and-see mode, hoping for clarity by mid-2025.

AI Takes a Backseat

It’s wild to think that AI, once the darling of earnings calls, is now playing second fiddle. Since the rise of generative AI tools in 2022, companies couldn’t stop talking about their tech investments. But with tariffs looming, those long-term bets are getting less airtime. It’s not that AI is irrelevant—far from it—but the urgency of trade policy is crowding out the conversation.

In my view, this shift highlights a broader truth: markets hate uncertainty. AI, for all its complexity, is a known quantity with predictable benefits. Tariffs, on the other hand, are a black box. Will they be fully implemented? Scaled back? Expanded? No one knows, and that ambiguity is driving executives up the wall.

Voices from the C-Suite

Not everyone is staying neutral. Some CEOs are openly critical of the tariff push. One pharmaceutical executive argued that while domestic investment is a worthy goal, tariffs might do more harm than good. Others, particularly in manufacturing, echoed this sentiment, warning that the levies could erode their competitive edge in global markets.

Tariffs are creating a fog over our planning. It’s hard to make bold moves when the rules keep changing.

– Manufacturing executive

Small businesses, often the backbone of the economy, are especially vocal. The head of an online resale platform noted that tariffs are eroding consumer confidence, which could spell trouble for retailers reliant on discretionary spending.

What’s Next for Investors?

For investors, this tariff frenzy is a double-edged sword. On one hand, companies that can navigate the trade landscape—say, by shifting supply chains or passing costs to consumers—could come out ahead. On the other, those heavily reliant on imports or global markets might take a hit.

My advice? Keep an eye on companies with strong domestic operations or flexible supply chains. They’re likely to weather the storm better than those tethered to volatile global markets. And don’t sleep on earnings calls—they’re a goldmine for gauging how management is thinking.

The Bigger Picture

Stepping back, this tariff-AI swap is more than a corporate talking point; it’s a window into the forces shaping our economy. Trade policies, consumer confidence, and corporate agility are all colliding in real time. As someone who’s weathered a few economic cycles, I can’t help but feel a mix of caution and curiosity. Will tariffs reshape global trade for the better, or will they tip us into a slowdown? Only time will tell.

For now, one thing’s clear: tariffs are the new AI. They’re dominating the conversation, rattling nerves, and forcing companies to adapt on the fly. Whether you’re an investor, a business owner, or just someone trying to make sense of the news, this is a story worth watching.

What do you think—will tariffs reshape the economy for better or worse? I’d love to hear your take as we navigate this uncharted territory together.