Have you ever watched a market run so hard for so long that you started wondering if it’s finally exhausted? That’s exactly where a lot of us were standing last week as the tech sector refused to take even a single down day. Twelve straight gains. Not just any gains—solid, convincing advances that left the rest of the market in the dust.
But here’s the thing that keeps me up at night in the best possible way: these kinds of streaks rarely mark the final blow-off top everyone fears. More often than not, they’re the deep breath before the real plunge higher.
The Streak That Almost Wasn’t Supposed to Happen
Let’s be honest—coming into November, tech looked tired. We’d just digested a nasty 30% drawdown from February highs, the kind of sell-off that usually leaves scars for months. Instead, something remarkable happened. Buyers didn’t just step in. They steamrolled the market.
By Tuesday, December 9th, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF—better known as XLK—had posted twelve consecutive winning sessions. That’s the second-longest streak in its quarter-century history. The only time it went longer? Thirteen days back in early 2017.
One example is obviously a tiny sample size, but markets love precedents, and that 2017 run offers a fascinating blueprint. The streak back then came three months into a new bull phase. When it finally snapped, tech didn’t collapse. It consolidated sideways for eight weeks, caught its breath, then launched into the melt-up that carried it through most of 2018.
Streaks don’t die of old age. They die when the underlying trend changes. So far, nothing in the price action suggests the trend has flipped.
It’s Not Just the Streak—It’s What Happens Next
This is the part most people miss. The end of a winning streak doesn’t automatically mean the bull market is over. It just means the easy phase might be pausing. The real question is always: what does the pullback look like?
Every single correction in tech over the past six months has been met with aggressive buying. Higher lows, stronger volume on up days, weaker volume on down days—the textbook definition of institutional accumulation. In my experience, that’s how big moves get born.
Magnitude Matters More Than Consecutive Days
Here’s something interesting: while the streak itself is rare, the actual gain over those twelve sessions—roughly 8%—isn’t extreme by recent standards. We’ve seen plenty of two-week bursts in tech that delivered 12-15% or more since 2021.
That tells me the market isn’t frothy yet. It’s enthusiastic, yes. Overheated? Not even close. The engine still has plenty of fuel left.
This Time, the Rally Has Real Breadth
Perhaps the most encouraging development—and the one getting the least attention—is how broad this move has been. For years, critics have complained that tech’s gains were concentrated in a handful of mega-cap names. Not this time.
Since the November 21st low:
- XLK (market-cap weighted tech) is up about 8.8%
- Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (RSPT) is up 11.6%
- Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (PSCT) is up over 15%
Let that sink in. The smallest, least-loved tech stocks are almost doubling the return of the big-cap index over the same period. That’s not a narrow, fragile rally. That’s the kind of breadth that sustains multi-month, even multi-year advances.
When small caps and equal-weight indices lead, it usually means fresh money is rotating in, not just passive flows chasing the same old names. In my book, that’s one of the strongest bullish signals you can get.
2025 Is Following 2020’s Playbook—And That’s Bullish
If you pull up the XLK chart from 2020 and overlay it on 2025, the similarity is honestly a little spooky. Both years saw roughly 30-34% crashes in the first half, followed by explosive rebounds.
In 2020, tech bottomed in March, then rallied about 90% into August before entering a two-month consolidation that featured two separate 12-15% pullbacks. Guess what happened after that digestion phase? The trend resumed with authority.
Fast forward to today: we just came through our own 12% correction, followed by this explosive 12-day rally. If history is any guide—and it usually rhymes—the current action looks less like a top and more like the reset before the next major leg higher.
The best bull markets climb a wall of worry, consolidate, then surprise everyone with how much further they can run. We might be watching that exact pattern play out right now.
What Usually Happens After These Historic Streaks
Looking at every significant winning streak in XLK history (8+ days), the forward returns have been overwhelmingly positive:
- 1 month later: average return +3.2%
- 3 months later: average return +9.8%
- 6 months later: average return +16.4%
More importantly, the maximum drawdown in the month following these streaks has historically been contained to single digits. Translation: even if we get a normal, healthy pullback now, the risk/reward still skews heavily bullish.
The Bigger Picture Nobody’s Talking About
Step back for a second. We’re not just looking at a sector in isolation. Technology has reclaimed clear leadership over the broader market, and leadership tends to persist until something fundamentally breaks.
Interest rates? Coming down. Earnings growth? Still projected north of 15% for next year in tech. Geopolitical risks? Always there, but priced in after the spring scare. The macro backdrop remains about as friendly as it gets for growth stocks.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know that when the fundamentals, technicals, and breadth all line up like this, you don’t fight it. You respect it.
How I’m Positioning Right Now
Full disclosure: I added to tech exposure on the first breakout above the November highs. The conviction came from watching those equal-weight and small-cap tech ETFs lead the charge—when the riskiest parts of the sector are outperforming, that’s usually a green light.
Am I worried about a near-term pullback? Of course. They’re normal, healthy, and frankly necessary. But the character of this advance—the way every dip gets bought, the expanding breadth, the historical parallels—tells me any weakness should be viewed as a gift.
Sometimes the market hands you a setup so clean you almost feel guilty taking it.
This feels like one of those times.
The streak might be over soon. But if the past is any guide, the real move in technology—the one that makes people say “I can’t believe I hesitated”—is probably still ahead of us.
And that, more than anything, is why I’m staying long, staying patient, and keeping my shopping list ready for the inevitable dip.
Because in bull markets, the most expensive thing you can own is regret.
