Remember that moment in early November when Bitcoin kissed $109,000 and the entire internet declared the bull run “back on for good”? Yeah, me too. Fast forward three weeks and we’re sitting at $86,700 wondering if the party’s already over. Turns out one of Wall Street’s most accurate crypto bulls doesn’t think so — not even close.
Why Tom Lee Thinks the Real Rally Starts Now
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and a name that keeps popping up every time Bitcoin does something wild, dropped a pretty bold take this week. While most of us were staring at red candles and questioning life choices, he went on national television and said, plain as day: “I don’t think the Bitcoin high is in place.”
And he didn’t stop there. He’s calling for a brand-new all-time high by January 2026 — potentially as early as this December if things line up. The catalyst? Today, December 1st 2025, quietly marks the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program. If you’ve been in crypto long enough, you know that when the Fed flips from tightening to neutral (or eventually easing), risk assets tend to go absolutely ballistic.
What Actually Happens When QT Ends?
Let’s keep this simple. Quantitative tightening is when the Fed lets bonds roll off its balance sheet instead of reinvesting the proceeds. Less money in the system → higher interest rates → tighter financial conditions → risk assets (like stocks and crypto) suffer.
The opposite is also true. When QT stops, liquidity conditions improve almost overnight. Lee loves pointing to September 2019 as the perfect playbook. The Fed paused QT, and within three weeks the S&P 500 jumped 17%. Bitcoin, still tiny back then, went on an absolute tear shortly after.
“Today is the day that QT ends… That’s a tailwind for equities and for Bitcoin.”
Tom Lee on CNBC, Dec 1 2025
Fast forward to right now and the setup looks eerily similar — except Bitcoin is 100× larger, spot ETFs exist, and institutional FOMO is real. If even a fraction of that 2019 magic repeats, strapping in sounds like the smart move.
December: The Forgotten Bullish Month
Here’s something most retail traders completely ignore: December is historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Sure, we all remember the brutal 2018 Christmas crash, but that was the exception, not the rule.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has ended December in the green 9 out of 12 times. The average return? Around 46%. Even in bear market years like 2018 and 2022, the drawdowns in December were milder than November.
- 2013: +94%
- 2015: +34%
- 2016: +17%
- 2017: +77%
- 2020: +47%
- 2021: –19% (one of the rare red Decembers
- 2024: +42% (so far)
Combine seasonal strength with the end of QT and suddenly “Santa rally” doesn’t sound so silly anymore.
$100,000 by Year-End: Dead or Still Breathing?
Lee hasn’t backed off his $100k year-end call one bit. In fact, he doubled down last week saying it’s “very likely” we see six figures before 2026. A lot of people laughed when Bitcoin stalled at $109k and rolled over, but I’ve learned never to bet against him when macro liquidity is turning.
Think about it. We’re only 15% away from $100k after a 21% pullback. In bull markets that kind of retrace is completely normal — healthy, even. The 2020-2021 run had multiple 30%+ drawdowns before the final leg higher. If liquidity floods back in December, catching that last 15% suddenly feels very doable.
The Bigger Picture: 2026 Could Get Stupid
Lee isn’t just playing the short-term trade. His real conviction is that Bitcoin is nowhere near its cycle peak. He sees $150,000–$250,000 over the next 12–18 months as totally reasonable, driven by:
- Continued spot ETF inflows (BlackRock alone holds over 600,000 BTC now)
- Potential nation-state adoption (more countries following El Salvador?)
- Corporate treasury allocations accelerating
- Interest rate cuts starting mid-2026
- Halving supply shock still in play (only 9 months post-halving)
Frankly, when someone who’s been calling Bitcoin moves with scary accuracy since $300 says the top isn’t in, I listen.
What Could Go Wrong?
Look, I’m bullish, but I’m not blind. Risks absolutely exist:
- Geopolitical flare-ups (Middle East, Taiwan, you name it)
- Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data forcing the Fed to stay tight longer
- Liquidation cascades if leverage got too crazy again
- Regulatory surprises (though the environment feels friendlier than ever)
But here’s the thing — most of those risks have been present the entire rally from $15,000. Yet Bitcoin kept climbing. Macro tailwinds are simply stronger right now.
Final Thoughts — Don’t Fight the Tape
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that when liquidity turns and sentiment is washed out, that’s usually when the real move starts. Everyone’s fearful, positioning looks light, and the macro setup is improving daily.
Tom Lee isn’t promising anything. He’s just reading the same tea leaves he’s read correctly for years. And right now those leaves spell one thing: higher.
Whether we tag $100k this month or grind higher into spring 2026, the path of least resistance still feels up. Sometimes the simplest trade is the best one — don’t overthink it when the Fed is finally stepping off the brake.
See you at the next all-time high.
