Mondays in December always feel a little different, don’t they? The holiday lights are up, the eggnog is flowing, yet here we are, caffeine in hand, staring at pre-market numbers wondering if this week finally brings the Santa Claus rally we’ve been hearing about forever. With the Fed decision just two days away and a avalanche of corporate news hitting the tape, today actually feels like one of those mornings where a single headline can swing billions. So let’s dive straight into the ten things that caught my eye before the opening bell.
The Calm Before the Fed Storm
Futures are basically flat as I write this, which honestly feels almost eerie after the relentless grind higher we’ve seen for weeks. The S&P 500 closed Friday at another record, and yet nobody seems willing to commit ahead of Wednesday’s main event. According to the latest readings, traders are pricing in roughly 89% odds of a quarter-point cut – that’s the third trim of 2025 if it happens. In my experience, when the probability sits this high this close to the announcement, the market has usually already digested the move. The real question becomes: what does the dot plot say about 2026?
I’ve learned over the years that December Fed meetings have a way of surprising people precisely because everyone thinks they have it figured out. Remember 2018? Anyway, something to keep in the back of your mind while we work through everything else happening today.
Berkshire’s Quiet Succession Drama Just Got Louder
Let’s start with something that genuinely surprised me this morning. One of Warren Buffett’s trusted lieutenants is heading for the exit. The investment manager who has been running a meaningful sleeve of the equity portfolio – and also happens to double as Geico’s CEO – will step away by year-end to join a major bank in a newly created role overseeing security and resiliency. This isn’t some random departure; this is one of the three people most often mentioned as potential future leaders of the entire conglomerate.
The timing feels particularly notable given that Buffett himself plans to hand over the CEO reins at the end of 2025. Perhaps the most interesting aspect? The move suggests that even the short list of internal successors might be shorter than many investors assumed. Berkshire shares barely budged on the news – classic Berkshire – but make no mistake, this is the kind of subtle shift that historians will point to years from now.
IBM Makes Its Biggest AI Bet Yet
Speaking of billion-dollar moves, Big Blue just wrote an eleven billion dollar check – all cash – for a data-streaming specialist that sits at the heart of modern AI infrastructure. Shares of the target jumped nearly thirty percent pre-market while IBM dipped about one and a half. Classic acquirer-versus-target reaction, right?
This transaction instantly transforms our ability to deliver real-time AI applications at scale.
– Statement from IBM leadership
Look, I’ve been skeptical of some of the legacy tech giants trying to buy their way into the AI conversation, but this one actually makes strategic sense. Real-time data streaming isn’t sexy like training massive models, but it’s the plumbing that makes everything else work. Sometimes the picks-and-shovels plays during a gold rush turn out to be the real winners.
Apple’s AI Wake-Up Call Coming in 2026?
One prominent tech analyst just fired a shot across Cupertino’s bow this morning, declaring that next year will finally be when Apple gets serious about artificial intelligence. The prediction includes a major partnership with Google’s Gemini family of models and – perhaps most notably – confidence that the current CEO stays in the corner office at least through 2027.
The price target got bumped all the way to $350, which would imply roughly forty percent upside from here. I’ve owned Apple shares for longer than I care to admit, and honestly? I’ve been waiting for this exact catalyst. The hardware is phenomenal, the ecosystem remains sticky as ever, but the AI story has felt like the one missing piece. If they actually execute on a meaningful Gemini integration, watch out.
The Great Custom Chip Shuffle
Meanwhile, in the never-ending semiconductor soap opera, word circulated that Microsoft might shift its custom silicon business away from one supplier toward another that’s been getting all the headlines lately for its work with Google’s tensor processing units. The rumored loser in this equation saw its shares drop more than six percent pre-market. Ouch.
These design wins matter enormously in the AI era. We’re talking about multi-year contracts worth billions that determine who eats lunch and who becomes lunch in the data center food chain. The winner here already reports earnings this week, by the way – something that suddenly feels a lot more interesting.
- Custom AI chips now represent the new battleground for cloud giants
- Design wins can make or break semiconductor companies for years
- Microsoft, Google, Amazon – everyone building their own silicon now
- Traditional CPU players suddenly playing defense
Carvana’s Absolutely Wild Ride Continues
Remember when practically everyone had written off the used-car dealer with the upside-down capital structure? Yeah, about that. One of the big banks just raised their price target to $455 – that’s not a typo – after the company earned a spot in the S&P 500. Shares are already up another eight percent plus pre-market.
The thesis seems straightforward: lower funding costs thanks to the index inclusion, improving unit economics, and a management team that somehow threaded the needle through the worst auto market in decades. I’ve rarely seen a turnaround story this dramatic outside of the airline sector post-bankruptcy. Whether it sustains remains the billion-dollar question, but respect where it’s due.
Mixed Signals for Traditional Automakers
Interesting contrast this morning in Detroit coverage. One shop upgraded General Motors, suggesting internal combustion engines and hybrids will enjoy a longer runway than many expected, while simultaneously warning that pure electric vehicles face another tough year ahead. The upgrade came with a notably cautious tone about the broader EV transition timeline.
Translation? Maybe the rush to all-electric by 2030 gets pushed out, which actually helps cash flows for companies that spent the last decade preparing for exactly that deadline. Sometimes moving the goalposts creates winners.
Quick Hits on the Rest of Today’s Movers
A few other analyst changes worth mentioning before we wrap up:
- Coverage initiated on a major credit card issuer with a strong buy and $270 target – analyst loves the growth trajectory and thinks the valuation remains too cheap
- Discount retailer that caters to teens and tweens got upgraded with analysts calling it “unicorn-like” – shares already up more than sixty percent this year but apparently still cheap
- Industrial conglomerate got taken down a notch with concerns about limited upside through the end of the decade
Oh, and two Club favorites report earnings this week – the aforementioned semiconductor powerhouse and the warehouse retailer that somehow keeps defying gravity. December earnings season always feels weirdly timed, but here we are.
Bottom line? Another Monday, another laundry list of reasons why staying engaged with markets remains one of the most intellectually rewarding pursuits out there. The Fed will do whatever the Fed decides to do on Wednesday, but between now and then we’ve got plenty of corporate chess moves to analyze. Some of today’s stories will matter six months from now; others will be forgotten by lunch. That’s what makes this game endlessly fascinating.
Stay nimble out there, and whatever you do – don’t fight the Fed. At least not until we actually hear what they have to say.
