Every year around this time I find myself standing in the cold at 5 a.m., coffee in hand, wondering if the deals are actually worth it. This morning, though, I’m warm inside — because the real money this Black Friday won’t be made by the people lining up outside stores. It will be made by the investors who already know which retail names are about to have a monster holiday season.
Something feels different in 2025. The vibe isn’t the reckless spending spree we saw a few years back. Shoppers are pickier, wallets are tighter for many, and “value” has become the word of the season. Wall Street has taken notice — and the analysts have already picked their horses.
A More Cautious Holiday Shopper in 2025
Let’s be honest: the American consumer isn’t broken, but they’re definitely bruised. Job security worries linger, inflation refuses to fully disappear, and many middle- and lower-income households are rethinking every purchase. Yet higher-income shoppers? They’re still ready to spend — just more thoughtfully.
Recent surveys of thousands of U.S. consumers paint the picture clearly. Fewer people say they’ll spend the same or more compared to last year. Promotions matter more than ever. Trading down — choosing good instead of great, practical instead of premium — is the new normal for a huge chunk of the population.
In my view, this is actually healthy. Reckless spending fueled by stimulus checks feels like a distant memory. What we have now is a sober, discerning shopper who still wants to celebrate the holidays — but refuses to get ripped off doing it.
The Two Channels Still Winning Hearts (and Wallets)
Even with the caution, two retail channels continue to dominate holiday plans:
- Online-only giants (think one-click checkout and two-day — or same-day — delivery)
- Discount and off-price stores where “treasure hunt” shopping still feels exciting
Everything else — traditional department stores, specialty retail, even some mid-tier chains — is quietly losing share. Some consumers simply say they’ll buy less overall. Others are just redirecting every dollar to the places that scream value.
Amazon Remains the Undisputed King
Look, we all knew this one was coming. Amazon isn’t just a retailer at this point — it’s infrastructure. Analysts continue to point out that the everything-store still commands roughly 46% of all U.S. e-commerce. That share hasn’t budged much, even against fierce competition.
“Early holiday promotions, same-day delivery in many cities, lower operating costs, a bulletproof Prime ecosystem, and aggressive price-matching — Amazon enters the season with every advantage.”
— Top-ranked internet analyst
And yet the stock has barely moved this year — up less than 3% while the broader market melted up. To me, that smells like opportunity. When a company this dominant trades like it’s standing still, patient investors tend to get rewarded — especially when Q4 numbers roll in.
Walmart: The Brick-and-Mortar Surprise That Keeps Surprising
If you had told me ten years ago that Walmart would be one of the sexiest retail stocks on the street, I would have laughed. Today? The laugh is on anyone who ignored it.
Up over 16% year-to-date while Amazon yawned sideways, Walmart has quietly executed one of the better turnarounds in modern retail history. Grocery dominance, improving e-commerce (Walmart+ anyone?), and a pricing umbrella that makes even Amazon sweat on everyday essentials.
Wall Street loves the defensive moat groceries provide. When discretionary spending softens, people still buy milk, diapers, and detergent. And increasingly, they’re buying those TVs and toys at Walmart too because the price is right.
Off-Price Retail: The Real Darling of a Value-Obsessed Season
Here’s where things get really interesting. In a year when many retailers will fight tooth and nail just to hold share, the off-price sector looks positioned to actually gain ground — potentially a lot of it.
Think about the psychology for a second. Consumers feel squeezed. They worry about the future. But they still want the thrill of finding a $300 designer jacket for $79. Off-price delivers exactly that emotional cocktail: smart, indulgent, responsible — all at once.
“We see an almost ideal setup for off-price retailers to take major market share this holiday. Consumers have money — they’re just choosing to be savvier about where they spend it.”
— Senior retail analyst
TJX Companies (Parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods)
Up 24% already this year, TJX is the poster child for everything working right now. Traffic keeps climbing. Average ticket keeps climbing. Inventory turns faster than most traditional department stores can dream of. And the treasure-hunt model? It’s practically recession-resistant.
Burlington Stores
Admittedly the laggard so far — only up about 1.7% YTD — but many analysts see that as misplaced pessimism. The company is in expansion mode, margins are improving, and the value proposition is arguably sharper than ever. Sometimes the best opportunities hide in plain sight.
Honorable Mentions: Ross Stores and Five Below
Ross gets frequent shout-outs in the same breath as TJX — same model, slightly different execution. Five Below, meanwhile, offers that irresistible “everything $5 or less” (okay, now up to $10) dopamine hit for younger shoppers and budget-conscious parents alike.
What This Means for Investors Right Now
Here’s my personal take after watching retail cycles for years: when the consumer turns cautious, the strong get stronger and the weak get exposed fast. There’s no middle ground anymore.
- Companies with pricing power and cost advantages win.
- Retailers dependent on full-price selling or heavy promotions just to move product? They’re in for pain.
- Scale matters more than ever — both in physical distribution and digital reach.
We’re about to get our first real taste this week. Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers will tell us plenty, but the broader holiday report card comes in January. My bet? The names above will be the ones raising guidance while others scramble with excuses.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how little the market seems to be pricing in success for some of these stocks right now. Amazon treading water. Burlington basically flat on the year. That disconnect between fundamentals and price never lasts forever.
So while the rest of the country battles crowds and refreshes tracking pages, a handful of investors will be quietly smiling. They already know where the real bargains are this holiday season — and they’re not in the stores.
Happy shopping, everyone. Whether you’re hunting deals in the aisles or hunting alpha in the markets, may your cart — and your portfolio — overflow.
