Have you ever had one of those trading days where everything seems to click into place even when the news feels a little… underwhelming? That was Wednesday for me.
The Federal Reserve finally delivered the quarter-point cut most people expected, but the real surprise was how little enthusiasm they showed for doing it again anytime soon. Chair Powell basically said, “We’re moving to the sidelines.” Yet instead of throwing a tantrum, the market threw a party. Small caps ripped to fresh highs, silver touched a record, and somehow the tech sector just kept marching upward like nothing happened. Go figure.
By the close, the Russell 2000 was flirting with all-time territory, the Dow and S&P sat less than 1% from their own records, and the XLK tech ETF tied its longest win streak since 2017. If that isn’t the definition of “buy the rumor, buy the fact, and then keep buying,” I don’t know what is.
What’s Actually Moving the Market Thursday
Let’s cut through the noise. Here are the stories I’m waking up early for – the ones that could actually swing portfolios tomorrow.
Oracle’s Ugly After-Hours Drop – Is the Cloud Party Over?
Oracle shares got absolutely crushed after the bell Wednesday, down more than 11% at one point. The crime? A revenue miss that, frankly, caught a lot of people off guard after the AI hype train had been running full steam.
Look, I’ve been riding the Oracle comeback story for a while now – the stock is still up over 170% in three years, which is insane for a company everyone wrote off a decade ago. But Wednesday night felt like reality finally showed up fashionably late to the party.
The cloud growth everyone was banking on? It came in lighter than expected. And when you’re trading at these multiples, even a slight disappointment feels like a gut punch. In my experience, these kinds of after-hours gaps in former darlings can set the tone for the entire software sector the next day. Keep an eye on whether the broader cloud names – Snowflake, ServiceNow, even Microsoft – catch a sympathy sell-off at the open.
“Oracle’s stumble is a reminder that even in an AI world, execution still matters more than hype.”
Broadcom: The One Earnings Report That Could Steal the Show
If Oracle was the disappointment of the night, Broadcom feels like the main event everyone’s waiting for. The chip giant reports after the close Thursday, and the setup couldn’t be more different.
Shares hit another 52-week high Wednesday – quietly one of the best-performing large-cap semis over the past year (only Micron has done better). Over three years? We’re talking a 658% return. Yeah, you read that right. Six hundred and fifty-eight percent.
Why the love? AI networking demand has been absurd, and Broadcom is right in the sweet spot with custom chips for the hyperscalers. If they guide even slightly above the whisper numbers, I wouldn’t be shocked to see another explosive move. But if there’s any hint that the AI capex boom is slowing… well, trees don’t grow to the sky.
- Key levels I’m watching: $210 psychological, then all-time highs around $215
- Options implying about a 7-8% move – that feels light if they crush numbers
- Any commentary on VMware integration will be huge
Costco at a Crossroads – Can the King of Retail Hold the Crown?
I’ve got a soft spot for Costco. Maybe it’s the $1.50 hot dog or the fact that their business model feels almost bulletproof in a world of retail carnage. But even kings have bad years.
The stock is on track to finish 2025 in the red – something that hasn’t happened since 2022. Meanwhile, Walmart has been eating their lunch, outperforming by 20 percentage points in just three months. That’s not supposed to happen.
Jim Cramer said on air he’s “concerned,” and for once I actually agree with him. Membership renewal rates, same-store sales ex-gas, and any commentary on consumer health – these numbers Thursday could tell us whether the pullback is a buying opportunity or the start of something uglier.
Personally? I think Costco still has pricing power that most retailers can only dream of. But if traffic trends are softening at the high end, that’s a macro red flag nobody wants to see.
Lululemon: Downward Dog or Dead Cat Bounce?
Speaking of stocks that can’t catch a break, Lululemon reports after the bell too. And honestly, this one hurts to watch.
The stock is pacing for its worst year since 2008. Yes, 2008. They’ve erased more than 60% of their value in two years. The athleisure darling that once traded at 70x earnings now looks downright reasonable on paper – but the chart is a horror show.
The problem isn’t complicated: product fatigue, competition from cheaper alternatives, and a consumer that suddenly cares about price again. If they can show any signs of life in U.S. comps or hint at successful new categories (looking at you, footwear), maybe the bleeding stops. But another guide-down feels almost inevitable at this point.
Carvana: The Meme Stock That Refuses to Die
And then there’s Carvana. Because of course there is.
The used-car dealer that was left for dead in 2022 just hit another all-time high Wednesday. They’re now on a 13-day win streak – up roughly 50% in two weeks. They join the S&P 500 in less than two weeks. The company that once traded under $4 is now knocking on $300.
Is the short squeeze over? Are fundamentals finally catching up to price? Or is this just the greatest redemption story in modern market history? I honestly don’t know anymore, and that’s what makes it fascinating.
“Carvana is the market’s way of reminding us that sometimes the crowd really can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
The Macro Backdrop: Silver at Records, Oil Jumping, Small Caps Roaring
Zoom out for a second. Silver hit an all-time high. Gold pushed higher. Oil jumped after reports of a U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan tanker. The Russell 2000 – the forgotten index for years – is suddenly the belle of the ball.
This feels like the classic “reflation trade” coming back to life. Lower rates, higher commodity prices, small caps outperforming – it’s the mirror image of what crushed value stocks in 2021-2022. Whether it lasts three days or three months is anyone’s guess, but right now the momentum is undeniable.
In my experience, these rotations tend to run further and faster than anyone expects. The same people who were hiding in mega-cap tech six months ago are suddenly chasing cyclicals and small caps. Funny how that works.
What I’m Doing Thursday Morning
- Watching Oracle gap fill levels – any bounce over $165 feels like a short-term scalp
- Broadcom is the big one – I’m not fighting the tape here unless guidance is disastrous
- Costco below $850 would get my attention on the long side if membership trends hold
- Carvana? I’m staying away – you don’t step in front of a freight train
- Keeping dry powder for whatever Friday’s PPI print brings
Bottom line: Wednesday showed us the market still wants to go up, even when the Fed takes away the punch bowl. Thursday gives us a fresh batch of earnings to either justify that optimism or throw cold water on it.
Either way, it’s going to be fun to watch. See you at the open.
