Have you ever wondered why some cities seem to quietly boom while everyone else is watching the usual suspects like California or Florida? I remember a few years back, chatting with a friend who snatched up a house in a smaller Midwest town for what now feels like pocket change. Fast forward, and that same place is turning heads with some of the strongest price growth projections for the coming year. It’s fascinating how the housing market can shift in unexpected ways.
Nationally, experts are calling for a modest uptick in home values—around 2% or so—in 2026. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find pockets of the country where things look far more exciting. Certain metros, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, could see prices jump significantly higher. It’s all about supply, demand, and a dash of regional economics that haven’t gotten as much attention lately.
Why Some Cities Are Poised for Stronger Gains in 2026
The big story here isn’t just the numbers; it’s the underlying reasons. In many parts of the South and West, new construction has been cranking along, adding inventory and keeping price growth in check—or even pushing it downward in some spots. But head north or to the heartland, and it’s a different picture. These areas haven’t seen nearly as much building activity in recent years.
That limited supply means even steady demand can drive prices up noticeably. Add in relatively affordable starting points compared to coastal hotspots, and you’ve got a recipe for appreciation that catches a lot of people off guard. In my view, this is where savvy investors often find their best opportunities—places that feel under the radar but have solid fundamentals.
Another factor that’s quietly influential? Proximity to bigger urban centers. Buyers priced out of major metros are looking for commutable alternatives that offer more space and lower costs. When new homes aren’t being built fast enough to meet that interest, values naturally climb.
The Standout Cities Leading the Pack
Let’s get to the heart of it—the specific places expected to see the biggest jumps. Forecasts point to eleven larger metros where growth could outpace the national average by a wide margin. What’s striking is how many are smaller cities that don’t always make the headlines.
Topping the list is a Rust Belt city that’s shaking off old stereotypes. With projected growth over 13%, it’s drawing attention for its bargain median prices hovering just under $200,000. That’s substantially below even the state average, making it feel like one of those rare affordable entry points left in the market.
Close behind are several New York state metros known for their four-season appeal and historic charm. These areas benefit from that spillover demand I mentioned—folks wanting easier access to bigger cities without the sky-high costs. Limited new development in these more established regions keeps inventory tight, amplifying any uptick in buyer interest.
Breaking Down the Top 11 Markets
To make this easier to digest, here’s a clear look at the metros forecasted for the strongest appreciation, along with their current median prices. Keep in mind these are larger urban areas, not tiny towns, so we’re talking meaningful markets.
| Rank | Metro Area | Projected 2026 Growth | Current Median Price |
| 1 | Toledo, Ohio | 13.1% | $199,900 |
| 2 | Syracuse, New York | 12.4% | $298,950 |
| 3 | Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania | 10.9% | $260,000 |
| 4 | Rochester, New York | 10.3% | $256,900 |
| 5 | Hartford, Connecticut | 9.5% | $429,000 |
| 6 | Baltimore, Maryland | 8.3% | $375,000 |
| 7 | New Haven, Connecticut | 7.7% | $439,000 |
| 8 | Winston-Salem, North Carolina | 7.7% | $342,899 |
| 9 | Albany, New York | 7.5% | $419,900 |
| 10 | Columbia, South Carolina | 7.2% | $303,300 |
| 11 | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | 7.0% | $379,000 |
Looking at this lineup, a few patterns jump out. New York state claims multiple spots, underscoring that regional trend toward more affordable alternatives near major hubs. The Midwest presence is strong too, with cities offering solid employment bases and lifestyles that appeal to families and remote workers alike.
Interestingly, only a handful of these have medians above the national figure around $415,000. That affordability factor can’t be overstated—it’s part of what keeps demand resilient even when broader markets cool.
What Drives These Forecasts?
These projections aren’t pulled out of thin air. They’re built on real data points like local inventory trends, employment growth, income levels, and expectations around mortgage rates. In areas with scarce new construction, the balance tips toward sellers.
Limited new housing development keeps supply tight in these markets, while prices remain attractive compared to national averages.
Senior economic analyst
That’s the crux of it. When building lags but jobs and wages hold steady—or improve—buyers compete for fewer options. Throw in lifestyle perks like shorter commutes, good schools, or natural surroundings, and you understand the sustained interest.
I’ve always thought the most intriguing opportunities show up in these secondary markets. They’re not flashy, but they often deliver steady, appreciable growth without the volatility of boom-and-bust cycles.
Regional Differences Shaping the Market
Contrast this with what’s happening elsewhere. In many Sun Belt cities, developers have been busy adding units, which helps moderate price increases and gives buyers more choices. That’s great for cooling overheated markets, but it also means appreciation slows.
In the Midwest and Northeast spots on our list, though, development has been more restrained. Older infrastructure, zoning restrictions, or simply less speculative building—all contribute to tighter inventory. The result? Even moderate buyer activity pushes values higher.
- Persistent low supply from years of underbuilding
- Steady local economies supporting demand
- Affordability drawing in relocating buyers
- Proximity to larger employment centers
- Limited new construction pipelines
These elements combine to create environments where price growth can outrun national trends pretty decisively.
Is Toledo Really the One to Watch?
Taking the top spot feels almost counterintuitive at first glance. But when you consider the numbers—a median just shy of $200,000 paired with double-digit projected growth—it starts to make sense. This isn’t a tiny village; it’s a proper metro with universities, healthcare, and manufacturing bases.
Perhaps the most compelling part is how attainable it remains. For many first-time buyers or those downsizing, that price point opens doors that are firmly shut in pricier regions. And if forecasts hold, early movers could see substantial equity buildup in a relatively short time.
Of course, no market is without risks. Local economic shifts or broader rate changes could alter trajectories. But based on current indicators, places like this deserve a closer look from anyone thinking about real estate in the coming year.
Northeast Markets Gaining Momentum
Several Connecticut and New York metros round out the upper half of the list. These areas have long served as bedroom communities for bigger cities, but remote work trends and cost-of-living concerns have amplified their appeal.
With older housing stock and slower permitting processes, new supply trickles in rather than floods the market. That dynamic preserves scarcity and supports ongoing appreciation, especially as buyers prioritize space and quality of life.
In my experience following housing trends, these kinds of established but affordable regions often deliver the most predictable long-term gains. They’re not prone to wild swings, yet they benefit from broader economic strength in the corridor.
Southern Surprises on the List
While the majority lean Midwest or Northeast, a couple of Southern metros sneak in—showing that pockets of tight supply exist beyond the usual suspects. These cities combine growing populations with constrained building, creating similar upward pressure.
It’s a reminder that real estate is ultimately local. National headlines give the big picture, but drilling down reveals nuance and opportunity in specific places.
What This Means for Potential Buyers and Investors
If you’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop dramatically, these forecasts suggest that ship may have sailed in certain markets. Moderation is coming nationally, but hot spots will likely keep climbing.
For investors eyeing appreciation or rental potential, these cities offer intriguing possibilities. Lower entry costs can translate to better cash flow or higher yields compared to pricier coasts. And for homeowners, building equity in a rising market feels pretty rewarding.
That said, timing any market is tricky. Rates, jobs reports, and policy changes all play roles. But understanding where supply constraints persist gives you a solid starting point for research.
At the end of the day, real estate remains one of the most tangible ways to build wealth over time. Watching these under-the-radar cities potentially lead the pack in 2026 is a good reminder to look beyond the obvious. Who knows—your next smart move might be in a place you hadn’t seriously considered before.
The housing landscape is always evolving, and staying informed about regional differences can make all the difference. Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading, or diversifying investments, keeping an eye on these emerging strong performers could pay off nicely.
One thing I’ve learned over years of tracking this stuff: the markets that surprise you most pleasantly are often the ones flying quietly under the radar. Here’s to an interesting 2026 ahead.
