Have you ever watched a chess grandmaster make a move that changes the entire game in one quiet second? That’s pretty much what’s happening right now in Washington, except the board is the U.S. economy and the piece about to slide across felt is the Chair of the Federal Reserve.
This morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on television and casually mentioned there’s a very good chance President Trump will announce Jerome Powell’s successor before we’re fighting over the last slice of pumpkin pie. Yeah, before Christmas. Let that sink in.
A Holiday Surprise That Could Move Markets
Most of us thought we had until May 2026—when Powell’s term officially expires—to speculate about who takes the most powerful unelected job in global finance. Turns out the timeline just got compressed faster than my jeans after Thanksgiving dinner.
Bessent, who’s leading the search, told viewers he has exactly one more interview to conduct. After that? The president could decide any day. In his words, “things are moving along very well.” When the guy running the process sounds that calm, you know something big is already in motion.
Why the Rush Matters More Than You Think
Look, the Fed chair isn’t just some bureaucratic posting. This person controls the price of money for the entire planet. Every mortgage rate, every car loan, every dollar you earn in a savings account—it all flows from decisions made in that marble building on Constitution Avenue.
An early announcement would send an unmistakable signal: the White House wants its own voice setting rates sooner rather than later. And given Trump’s very public frustration with Powell—remember the “I’d love to fire him” comments?—nobody expects the next chair to be a clone of the current one.
“We’ve gotten to this point where monetary policy has gotten very complicated, and it’s more than just cutting rates.”
– Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, downplaying Trump’s joking threat to fire him if rates don’t fall fast
The Short List Everyone’s Whispering About
While the White House keeps saying “no decisions until the president announces,” the names floating around trading floors and D.C. bars are pretty consistent at this point. Here’s who insiders are watching closest:
- Kevin Hassett – former National Economic Council director and a trusted Trump economic voice
- Kevin Warsh – ex-Fed governor who’s been openly critical of recent policy
- Christopher Waller – current Fed governor seen as more dovish on rates
- Michelle Bowman – another sitting governor with a regulatory focus
- Rick Rieder – BlackRock’s bond chief, a dark-horse Wall Street favorite
Word on the Street has Hassett pulling ahead, but I’ve learned never to bet the ranch on D.C. rumors until the press conference actually starts.
What the New Chair Might Actually Do Differently
Bessent dropped another intriguing line that deserves more attention than it got. He said it’s time for the Fed to “move back into the background” and stop dominating every economic conversation like it has since 2008.
Think about that. For almost two decades the central bank has been the main character in America’s financial story—first saving the system, then keeping rates at zero forever, then slamming on the brakes to fight inflation. Bessent seems to be signaling a desire for a quieter Fed that lets fiscal policy (tax cuts, tariffs, spending) take the wheel again.
In practice that could mean:
- Fewer emergency interventions
- Less obsession with forward guidance
- Possibly quicker rate cuts if growth slows (or if the boss tweets loudly enough)
- A return to the pre-crisis model where the Fed mostly just… set rates and went home
How Markets Are Reading the Tea Leaves
Traders didn’t wait for an official name to start pricing in change. The moment Bessent spoke, two-year Treasury yields dipped slightly—classic “easier policy ahead” move. Stock futures ticked higher too. The bond market, in its brutally efficient way, is already betting the next chair leans more dovish than Powell’s recent hawkish turn.
And honestly? That reaction feels right. Powell spent years trying to convince everyone he was Paul Volcker reincarnated. The next person in that seat will probably sound a lot more like a growth-friendly cheerleader than an inflation-fighting terminator.
The December FOMC Meeting Just Got Spicy
Let’s not forget there’s still one more Fed meeting before Christmas. Current betting has a third straight rate cut penciled in—probably 25 basis points. But if Trump drops a new chair’s name in the next few weeks, that meeting turns into theater.
Imagine Jerome Powell sitting there, knowing his replacement has already been chosen, having to defend whatever decision the committee makes. Awkward doesn’t begin to cover it.
What History Tells Us About Early Exits
Technically Powell can’t be fired—only demoted from chair while staying on as governor. But history shows presidents usually get their way. When Reagan wanted Volcker gone in 1987, Volcker read the room and stepped aside. Same dance, different decade.
Trump tried to push Powell out in 2018 and got told “no” in no uncertain terms. Second terms are different. The leverage is real this time.
Bottom Line for Regular People
If you’re wondering how this affects your life, here’s the translation:
- Mortgage rates could start trending down faster in 2026
- Credit card rates might ease a bit (don’t hold your breath though)
- Stock investors probably like the odds of friendlier policy
- Savers earning 4-5% in high-yield accounts? Enjoy it while it lasts
In my experience covering these transitions, the person matters less than the signal. An early pick tells Wall Street the administration wants lower rates and isn’t afraid to lean on the Fed to get them. That alone changes behavior.
So keep an eye on your news feed between now and Christmas morning. The biggest present this year might not fit under the tree—it might be the name that determines whether your next refinance saves you hundreds a month or costs you hundreds more.
Either way, one thing feels certain: the era of Jerome Powell running the show quietly from the sidelines looks to be coming to an end sooner than anyone expected. And in Washington, sooner almost always means louder.
Pass the eggnog. This holiday season just got a lot more interesting.
