Imagine dropping almost $83 billion on the crown jewels of Hollywood and then, just days later, having the President of the United States look straight into the cameras and say, “Yeah… that could be a problem.”
Welcome to the new reality of mega-deals in 2025.
Last Friday the entertainment world basically stopped breathing when Netflix announced it was buying Warner Bros film studios and, more importantly, HBO Max from Warner Bros Discovery in what is easily the largest streaming transaction ever attempted. By Sunday night, President Trump had already thrown cold water on the whole thing.
A Deal That Immediately Raised Eyebrows
Let’s be honest, when you already own roughly 30-35% of the global streaming market and then try to swallow HBO, the brand that basically invented prestige television, people are going to talk. And regulators are going to listen very, very carefully.
The numbers are frankly staggering. Post-deal, the new Netflix would control:
- Almost the entire HBO catalog (The Sopranos, Game of Thrones, Succession, The White Lotus, you name it)
- Warner Bros massive film library (DC, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, the entire classic catalog)
- Current theatrical pipeline for the next several years
- Roughly 45-50% of U.S. streaming watch time, according to most analysts
That last bullet is the one that makes antitrust lawyers wake up in a cold sweat.
Trump’s Red-Carpet Reality Check
Sunday evening, Kennedy Center Honors. Glitzy red carpet. Reporters shouting questions. And there it was.
“They have a very big market share already. And when they have Warner Brothers, you know, that share goes up a lot… It could be a problem.”
– President Donald Trump, December 7, 2025
He didn’t stop there. He made it crystal clear he intends to be personally involved in the approval process. In an administration that has already shown willingness to dive head-first into merger reviews (remember the Adobe-Figma kill?), that single sentence carries enormous weight.
Perhaps the most telling moment? When asked about Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos’s recent Oval Office visit, Trump smiled and said Sarandos “made no guarantees” about the merger getting through. Read between the lines: no backroom deal, no wink-wink assurance.
Why This Isn’t Just Another Big Merger
I’ve watched media consolidation for two decades. Disney-Fox, AT&T-Time Warner, Discovery-Warner, Amazon-MGM… each felt massive at the time. But this one feels different, and here’s why.
Most previous deals were about scale in a fragmented world. Disney needed Hulu and Fox content to launch Disney+. Warner needed Discovery reality shows to survive after the AT&T disaster. Those were defensive moves.
This Netflix move? It’s pure offense. They’re already the undisputed leader. They don’t need HBO Max to survive; they want it to cement permanent dominance.
And that’s exactly what scares regulators.
The Antitrust Math No One Can Ignore
Let me put it in terms most investors understand: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the metric DOJ and FTC use to measure market concentration.
| Scenario | Approx HHI (U.S. Streaming) | Regulatory View |
| Current market | ~2,200 | Moderately concentrated |
| Post Netflix-WBD deal | ~3,800–4,200 | Highly concentrated – presumptive illegal |
Anything over 2,500 triggers intense scrutiny. Anything that increases HHI by more than 200 points in an already concentrated market is presumed illegal under current guidelines.
This deal blows past both thresholds by a country mile.
The Other Bidders Circling Like Sharks
Making things even spicier? Paramount-Skydance just launched a hostile counter-bid for all of Warner Bros Discovery on Monday morning. Yes, the same Paramount that lost the original auction.
And guess who’s very close to the Ellison family? Larry Ellison, Oracle billionaire and well-known Trump supporter. Suddenly politics, money, and Hollywood ego are all in the same blender.
Comcast also quietly expressed interest in the same assets before Netflix swooped in. Three of the biggest players in American media are now in a bizarre three-way standoff, with the White House holding the ultimate veto pen.
What Happens Next – Realistic Timeline
Here’s my educated guess, based on how these reviews actually work:
- Netflix formally files Hart-Scott-Rodino paperwork – within weeks
- 30-day initial waiting period begins (can be extended)
- Second Request almost certain – adds 6-12 months minimum
- DOJ antitrust division (possibly FTC) issues Civil Investigative Demands
- Trump administration officials signal preferred outcome behind closed doors
- Netflix offers behavioral remedies (almost certainly rejected)
- Structural divestitures demanded or lawsuit to block
Best case for Netflix? Closing late 2026 or early 2027. Realistic case? The deal dies or gets radically reworked.
The Bigger Picture Nobody’s Talking About Yet
If this merger gets blocked, it sends a message louder than any press release: the era of unrestricted Big Tech and Big Media consolidation is over.
Think about it. Apple can’t buy Disney. Amazon can’t buy Paramount. Google can’t buy anyone meaningful. And Netflix definitely can’t buy Warner’s crown jewels.
We may be witnessing the high-water mark of the streaming wars right now, in real time.
“This isn’t 2018 anymore. The tolerance for massive concentration in digital markets has evaporated.”
– Former senior FTC official, speaking anonymously
In my experience covering these battles, once a President publicly questions a deal’s competitiveness, it rarely survives in its current form. Companies can lobby, they can promise jobs, they can wine and dine every senator from here to Sunday, but that soundbite lives forever.
Netflix spent years telling investors it didn’t need mergers because its original content engine was unstoppable. Now it’s betting the farm on buying someone else’s IP. The irony is thick enough to cut with a knife.
So buckle up. We’re about to watch an $83 billion drama play out in regulators’ offices, on Capitol Hill, and probably on whatever remains of X by the time this is all over.
One thing feels certain: the streaming landscape that emerges on the other side probably won’t look anything like the one Netflix’s bankers drew up last week.
And honestly? In a world where five companies already control 85% of our attention, maybe that’s not the worst outcome.
