Imagine you’re trying to build the most ambitious trade corridor the world has ever seen – one that could rival China’s Belt and Road on steroids – and the whole thing stalls because two countries refuse to sit at the same table.
That’s exactly where the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) found itself after October 2023. Announced with huge fanfare at the New Delhi G20 summit, it was meant to be Washington’s great geo-economic counterpunch. Then everything froze.
Fast forward to late 2025, and suddenly the United States announces it’s selling F-35 stealth fighters to Saudi Arabia. Israel – the only regional power currently flying these jets – immediately objects. Most analysts see erosion of Israel’s military edge.
But what if they’re reading the board wrong?
The Real Game Behind the Jets
Let’s be honest – selling fifth-generation fighters to Riyadh isn’t just another arms deal. It’s a geopolitical earthquake disguised as a defense contract. And earthquakes like this don’t happen by accident in Washington.
The timing tells you everything. This announcement comes after four years of strained US-Saudi relations, after Riyadh flirted heavily with Moscow and Beijing, after they got invited to BRICS and seriously considered joining. Now they’re suddenly committing almost a trillion dollars to the American economy and getting the crown jewels of US military technology in return.
That kind of 180-degree turn doesn’t happen because someone in the Pentagon woke up feeling generous.
Why IMEC Actually Matters
First, let’s remind ourselves what was at stake with IMEC.
This wasn’t just another pipeline or railroad. The corridor was designed to link India’s west coast through the UAE and Saudi Arabia, then through Jordan and Israel to the Mediterranean port of Haifa, and finally through Greece to Europe. Think of it as a modern spice route – but for containers, data cables, and green hydrogen.
The numbers were staggering: potentially cutting shipping times between India and Europe by 40%, reducing dependence on the Suez Canal, and creating an alternative to both the Northern Sea Route (Russia) and China’s various corridors.
More importantly, from Washington’s perspective, it was the perfect way to bind India more tightly to the anti-China coalition while simultaneously pulling Gulf capitals away from Beijing’s orbit.
There was just one massive problem: the route literally went through Israel.
The Palestinian Roadblock That Wasn’t
Everyone knew Saudi Arabia had made normalization with Israel conditional on progress toward Palestinian statehood. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had been crystal clear about this for years.
Then came the latest Gaza conflict, which evolved into something much larger, and suddenly the entire normalization track looked dead. IMEC? Forgotten. Abraham Accords expansion? On ice. The whole beautiful geo-economic vision seemed buried under the rubble.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
The conflict actually ended – decisively – with what most neutral observers would call a clear Israeli victory and significant weakening of Iranian-backed forces across the region. Love it or hate it, the military reality on the ground changed dramatically.
Suddenly, the old Saudi red line about Palestinian independence started looking… negotiable.
Enter the F-35 Incentive Package
This is where the fighter jet deal becomes fascinating.
Think about what Saudi Arabia actually wants for its post-oil future. Vision 2030 isn’t just about building fancy cities in the desert – it’s about creating an entirely new economic reality where the Kingdom is the indispensable hub connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe.
IMEC is absolutely central to that vision. Without it, Saudi Arabia remains just another oil exporter waiting for the world to go green. With it? They’re the new Singapore of the Middle East.
- Direct rail connection to Europe bypassing Suez
- Massive new ports and logistics hubs
- Leadership position in green hydrogen export
- Central role in global data cable networks
- Geopolitical relevance that survives the death of oil
All of this requires one thing: normal relations with Israel.
And all of that requires domestic political cover for MBS to make the leap without looking like he’s selling out the Palestinian cause.
The Face-Saving Formula
This is where American diplomatic creativity comes in – and where the F-35s become genius.
By offering Saudi Arabia not just the jets but potentially Major Non-NATO Ally status (which comes with enormous military and intelligence benefits), Washington creates an alternative narrative: this isn’t Saudi Arabia bending to Israel, this is Saudi Arabia ascending to its rightful place as America’s premier Arab partner.
Sometimes the best way to get someone to compromise isn’t to reduce what you demand from them – it’s to massively increase what you offer them.
The Palestinian issue doesn’t disappear, but it gets reframed. Instead of “we won’t normalize until there’s a Palestinian state,” it becomes “we’re normalizing to create the economic conditions that will eventually enable a Palestinian state.”
It’s not perfect. It’s not even particularly honest. But it’s politically viable.
Israel’s Real Calculation
Now, the Israeli angle is crucial.
Yes, the IDF hates the idea of Saudi F-35s. Yes, they’re worried about qualitative military edge. But let’s be real – Saudi Arabia isn’t Iran. The Kingdom has never fought Israel directly and, post-Abraham Accords, has increasingly coordinated with Israel against common threats.
More importantly, Israeli leaders understand something fundamental: their country’s long-term security increasingly depends on economic integration with the region, not just military superiority.
A functioning IMEC means Israeli ports handling Indian trade. It means Israeli tech companies with offices in Riyadh. It means gas pipelines and data cables and shared intelligence against Iran. It means turning military victory into permanent strategic advantage.
Some hawks in Tel Aviv will scream. But the strategic community largely gets it: a few dozen Saudi F-35s is a price worth paying for locking in the new Middle East architecture.
The India Angle Nobody’s Talking About
Perhaps the most under-reported aspect of this whole maneuver is what it means for India.
New Delhi has been walking a tightrope for years – deepening strategic partnership with Washington while maintaining its historic relationship with Russia and developing the North-South Transport Corridor through Iran.
The corridor through Chabahar Port was always India’s Plan B – insurance against over-dependence on routes controlled by Pakistan or vulnerable to China.
But if IMEC actually happens? If there’s a reliable, fast corridor through friendly countries straight to Europe?
Suddenly the strategic imperative for the Iranian route diminishes dramatically. And Washington has been very clear about its displeasure with India’s Iran ties.
This is classic carrot-and-stick diplomacy: revive IMEC as the carrot, maintain pressure on Chabahar as the stick, and watch India gradually shift its weight toward the American-preferred routes.
What Happens Next
The timeline is actually quite compressed.
We’re already seeing reports of quiet Saudi-Israeli talks. The F-35 deal provides perfect cover – technical discussions about aircraft delivery schedules create natural opportunities for broader conversations.
MBS gets to tell his domestic audience that he extracted unprecedented concessions from America. Israeli leaders get to say they maintained their military edge through various side agreements. Washington gets to present IMEC revival as a major foreign policy victory.
And the Palestinians? They’ll likely get some combination of economic incentives, limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank, and lots of promises about future negotiations. It won’t satisfy anyone who wants genuine independence, but it might be enough to prevent outright explosion.
In my experience watching Middle East diplomacy, that’s usually how these things actually work. The perfect becomes the enemy of the possible, and everyone declares victory while quietly pocketing what they can get.
The real question is whether this house of cards holds. Because if Saudi-Israeli normalization actually happens and IMEC starts getting built, we’re looking at one of the most significant reordering of global trade routes since the Suez Canal opened.
And it all might hinge on a fighter jet deal that most analysts completely misunderstood.
Sometimes the biggest geopolitical moves hide in plain sight, disguised as routine arms sales. This feels like one of those times.
