Every year around this time I find myself standing in the middle of a crowded mall, coffee in hand, wondering the same thing: are we all completely out of our minds?
This year the answer appears to be a resounding yes—and the numbers back it up.
Americans are on track to shatter every previous holiday spending record in 2025, even though many of us keep saying we’re worried about prices, jobs, and whatever fresh chaos the economy decides to throw at us next. Something doesn’t add up, right? Let’s dig in.
The Big Number Everyone Is Talking About
Picture this: the average person in the United States is getting ready to part with more than $1,000 between November 1 and New Year’s Eve. Not household—per person. That’s gifts, decorations, food, travel, the whole holiday package.
To put that in perspective, last year the figure hovered just under a grand. We’re talking about a solid four-percent jump in twelve months, during a period when most people’s wages certainly didn’t leap forward that aggressively.
And before you say “well, inflation,” remember that even adjusted for rising prices, this is real growth in spending intent. People aren’t just spending more because everything costs more—they’re choosing to open their wallets wider.
It’s Not Just Christmas—Every Seasonal Event Is Getting the VIP Treatment
The holiday splurge actually starts way before December. Look at the numbers from earlier in the year and the pattern is crystal clear:
- Halloween spending shot up roughly ten percent year-over-year
- Thanksgiving meal budgets crept higher
- Even traditionally modest occasions like Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day saw healthy increases
In my view, we’re witnessing a broader cultural shift. People aren’t waiting for “the big one” in December anymore; they’re spreading the joy (and the credit-card bills) across the entire calendar.
The Two Americas of Holiday Shopping
Here’s where things get interesting—and honestly a little uncomfortable.
While the average spend is soaring, that average hides a growing divide. Affluent households are driving the bulk of the increase. For them, an extra hundred or two hundred dollars on gifts barely registers.
Meanwhile, lower and middle-income families are doing something different entirely. Many are holding their budgets flat in nominal dollars—which means they’re actually cutting back in real terms—or they’re leaning harder on credit than ever before.
The top 20 percent of earners are expected to increase their seasonal outlays significantly, while the bottom 40 percent anticipate little to no growth in spending power.
— Recent retail forecast analysis
That quote stuck with me because it feels like the story of the entire post-pandemic economy in one sentence.
Why Are We Doing This to Ourselves?
Seriously—why? Inflation is still above the target most economists consider healthy. Job security feels shakier than it did a couple of years ago for a lot of industries. Yet here we are, ready to max out the plastic.
I have a few theories, and I’ve heard the same from friends in retail and finance:
- Pent-up celebration demand. After a couple of weird, muted holiday seasons during the pandemic, people want the full Norman Rockwell experience—darn the expense.
- Social-media pressure is real. When everyone’s Instagram looks like a department-store catalog, it’s hard not to keep up.
- Low unemployment + record stock-market levels = paper wealth effect. Even if your paycheck isn’t huge, seeing your 401(k) balance hit all-time highs makes that extra gadget feel justified.
- Buy-now-pay-later explosion. Services that let you split purchases into four interest-free payments have made big-ticket gifts feel strangely affordable in the moment.
Whatever the reason—or more likely the combination of all of them—the result is the same: cash registers are going to be singing this winter.
What Retailers Are Banking On
Retail executives aren’t stupid. They see the same data we do, and they’re positioning accordingly.
Expect earlier Black Friday sales than ever (some literally started in October this year), deeper discounts on door-buster items to get bodies in stores, and an absolute avalanche of targeted advertising.
Shipping companies are staffing up, warehouses are running extra shifts, and e-commerce giants have been building out same-day delivery networks like crazy. Everyone wants a piece of that extra $40–$50 billion that’s apparently floating around looking for a holiday home.
The Personal Finance Angle Nobody Wants to Talk About
Let’s be honest for a second. January is going to hurt for a lot of households.
Credit-card balances are already at record levels heading into the season. Add another thousand dollars (or more) of seasonal spending, and we’re looking at a hangover that could last well into spring—especially if interest rates stay “higher for longer” as the Fed keeps hinting.
I’ve seen it firsthand with friends: the ones who swear “we’re keeping it reasonable this year” somehow end up with a Christmas tree surrounded by twice as many presents as they planned. Emotions run high, kids are only little once, Grandma deserves something nice—there’s always a justification.
How to Enjoy the Season Without Regretting It in January
If you’re feeling a little uneasy after reading all this—welcome to the club. Here are some strategies that have worked for me and for readers I’ve talked to over the years:
- Set a hard number early and tell someone who will hold you accountable
- Use cash or debit for gifts—when the envelope is empty, you’re done
- Focus on experiences over stuff when possible (concert tickets, a nice dinner out, a weekend getaway)
- Start a “holiday sinking fund” in January for next year—$85 a month gets you right to that $1,000 mark
- Embrace the “something they want, something they need, something to wear, something to read” rule to cap gifts per child
None of these ideas are revolutionary, but they work because they force intentionality in a season that thrives on impulse.
The Bottom Line
Yes, 2025 holiday spending is going to set records. Yes, a lot of that momentum is coming from households that can genuinely afford it. But millions more will stretch further than they should because the cultural pull of “making the season magical” is incredibly powerful.
In the end, the choice is personal. Just make it deliberately rather than accidentally.
Because come January, when the decorations are packed away and the bills roll in, the only thing left will be the memories—and the balance on your credit card statement.
Choose wisely.
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