Have you ever walked into a room and just felt the energy shift? That’s exactly what the U.S. stock market felt like the day before Thanksgiving 2025. While most of us were mentally already elbow-deep in mashed potatoes, Wall Street decided to throw its own feast — and every major index showed up hungry.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all closed in the green for the fourth consecutive session. Four days. That’s not a streak you see every week, especially heading into a holiday when trading floors usually empty out faster than a Friday happy hour. Something big is brewing, and investors are eating it up.
A Proper Pre-Holiday Party on Wall Street
Let’s be honest — Thanksgiving week is usually quiet. Volume dries up, traders sneak out early, and the market drifts like a lazy river. Not this year. The vibes were more Fourth of July than fourth Thursday in November.
Tech led the charge, as it so often does these days. One major cloud and database player jumped nearly 4% after a prominent Deutsche Bank analyst called the recent dip “an attractive entry point.” When a stock that stumbled through most of November suddenly wakes up, people notice. And when Nvidia and Microsoft ride the wave too? That’s sympathy buying on steroids.
“Thanksgiving week is generally a strong week in the markets. Everyone’s feeling good.”
Eric Diton, President and Managing Director, The Wealth Alliance
He’s not wrong. There’s something about the holidays that makes people want to be in stocks. Maybe it’s optimism about family gatherings. Maybe it’s the eggnog. Or maybe it’s the growing certainty that the Federal Reserve is about to deliver an early Christmas present in December.
The December Rate Cut Everyone’s Betting On
Right now, the futures market is pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut next month. That’s not a coin flip. That’s the market screaming from the rooftops that lower rates are basically locked in.
Lower rates = cheaper borrowing = higher valuations for growth stocks. It’s Finance 101, but when you see it play out in real time, it still feels magical. The only risk? If the Fed somehow disappoints. One wealth manager put it bluntly: “If the Fed disappoints, you could have a sell-off.”
But here’s the thing — almost nobody thinks they will. The data has been cooperative, inflation looks tamed, and the labor market, while cooling, isn’t screaming recession. All signs point to a dovish Fed. And if certain names from the new administration end up in key economic roles, rates could stay lower for longer than anyone currently expects.
The Boldest S&P 500 Forecasts Yet
Speaking of lower for longer — the 2026 price targets rolling in are starting to make even seasoned investors do a double take.
We’ve got one chief investment strategist calling for 7,400. Another major Wall Street bank floated 7,500 as their base case. But the number that really raised eyebrows? 8,000. Yes, eight thousand. On the S&P 500. By the end of 2026.
That would be roughly 40% higher than where we sit today. Is it crazy? Maybe. Is it impossible? History says no — we’ve seen bigger two-year runs. The question is whether the ingredients are there: continued tech leadership, friendly Fed policy, decent earnings growth, and — perhaps most importantly — no major external shock.
- AI spending keeps accelerating
- Corporate buybacks stay strong
- Interest rates trend lower or at least stay stable
- No recession, no major geopolitical flare-up
If most of those boxes get checked, 8,000 doesn’t sound so insane after all.
Meanwhile in the Real World: AI and Jobs
It’s not all champagne and confetti, though. A fresh study out of MIT dropped a pretty sobering stat this week: artificial intelligence could potentially replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce. That’s not a rounding error. That’s millions of jobs and roughly $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, healthcare, and professional services.
The researchers built a simulation covering 151 million workers. The results weren’t apocalyptic, but they weren’t comforting either. Certain roles — think data entry, basic customer support, routine analytical tasks — are squarely in the crosshairs.
Here’s what I find fascinating: the same technology driving stock prices higher is simultaneously creating anxiety about the future of work. That tension isn’t going away. If anything, it’s the defining investment theme of this decade.
Apple Quietly Retakes the Smartphone Crown
While everyone’s focused on AI chips and cloud spending, a changing of the guard happened almost under the radar. New projections show Apple shipping around 243 million iPhones this year — enough to edge out its main Android rival for the first time in 14 years.
Think about that. After all the talk about Chinese brands flooding the market, after years of Android dominating unit share, Apple is back on top. And they’re doing it while charging premium prices. That’s brand power most companies can only dream of.
Across the Pond: UK Budget Brings Startup Goodies
European markets weren’t exactly sleepy either. The Stoxx 600 climbed over 1%, with UK banks getting a particular boost after the Autumn Budget dropped some welcome news for the startup crowd.
Tax breaks for employees and investors in young companies, plus some clever structuring around capital gains — the kind of stuff that makes venture capitalists pay attention. London’s been fighting to stay relevant in the European tech scene post-Brexit. Moves like this help.
China’s Other AI Story
And then there’s China. While U.S. AI and robotics companies have raised more than $160 billion this year alone, their Chinese counterparts have pulled in just over $10 billion. On paper, that looks like America running away with the race.
But dig a little deeper and you see something interesting. Valuations in China are dramatically lower. Some global investors are starting to sniff around, wondering if the fear trade has gone too far. Export controls, regulatory pressure, pandemic scars — yes, the risks are real. But so is the talent. And the price tags are a fraction of what you’d pay stateside.
In my experience, that’s exactly when contrarian money starts moving.
What Happens After the Turkey Coma?
So here we are. Markets are up, sentiment is high, forecasts are getting downright giddy. But we’ve all been here before. The week after Thanksgiving is when reality often reasserts itself. Trading volume comes roaring back. End-of-year positioning kicks in. And any hint of Fed uncertainty can turn a gentle drift into a sharp move.
My take? Enjoy the rally. Be thankful for the gains. But keep some cash on the sidelines. Because if there’s one thing markets love more than a holiday feast, it’s reminding us that nothing goes straight up forever.
Still — if you’d told me a year ago we’d be having serious conversations about an 8,000 S&P 500 while tech stocks rip into Thanksgiving, I’d have asked what you were drinking.
Turns out the answer was eggnog. And plenty of it.
Happy Thanksgiving, investors. May your portfolios be fat, your drawdowns thin, and your rate cuts delivered right on schedule.
