Every once in a while the market hands you a gift wrapped in panic.
One bad quarter, a scary headline, a tariff rumor, and suddenly a company that’s been compounding at 30-40% a year is trading at its cheapest valuation in years. That, my friends, is exactly what’s happening right now with one of the most dominant players in public safety technology.
I’m talking about the company behind the Taser, the leader in body cameras, the pioneer of police software suites, and now the fastest-growing AI platform in law enforcement. And according to one of the sharpest teams on Wall Street, it’s about to embark on another leg higher, potentially delivering close to 60% returns over the next 12-18 months.
A 30% Pullback Just Created a Rare Entry Point
Let’s be honest: 2025 has not been kind to this stock so far.
After touching all-time highs in the summer, shares plunged more than 30% in a matter of months. November alone saw a 26% haircut when the company reported third-quarter numbers that missed expectations. Management pointed to higher tariffs and some timing issues with large government contracts. The market, being the emotional teenager it sometimes is, threw the baby out with the bathwater.
But here’s the thing I’ve learned over the years: when a proven compounder with a pristine balance sheet and 20%+ growth guidance trades at its lowest sales multiple in half a decade, you don’t run away. You lean in.
What the Street Is Saying Now
One major investment bank recently went through their entire coverage list and asked a simple question: which name has the highest conviction upside into 2026?
Their answer was unequivocal: this public safety technology leader.
“We see the pullback as an overreaction… with shares at ~10x EV/CY27E Sales (down from its mid/high-teens average most of this year), we see a very compelling entry point.”
They slapped a price target on it that implies nearly 60% upside from where it closed last Thursday. That would take the market cap well north of $70 billion, and frankly, given the growth trajectory, that still feels reasonable.
From Stun Guns to AI-Powered Command Centers
Most investors still think of this company as “the Taser people.” And sure, the electroshock weapon business is still a cash cow with insanely high recurring revenue from cartridge replacements. But that’s now the slowest-growing part of the story.
Today the real excitement is in software and services:
- Cloud-based evidence management (Evidence.com)
- Real-time operations platforms (like Dispatch and Respond)
- Fleet vehicle cameras and telematics
- And most importantly their new AI suite that’s growing faster than anything they’ve ever launched
In fact, their flagship AI-enhanced public safety bundle booked $150 million in a single quarter earlier this year, making it officially the fastest product ramp in company history. Analysts now expect it to represent 10% of U.S. state and local bookings by year-end 2025, and that percentage should compound rapidly.
Pricing Power Most Investors Completely Miss
Here’s something that doesn’t get enough attention: this company has been quietly raising prices for years without losing customers. In many cases, police departments are actually asking for premium bundles because the productivity gains are so obvious.
When your software saves officers hours of paperwork per shift, or when your AI automatically redacts faces and license plates in body-cam footage, agencies don’t balk at paying 10-15% more. They beg for it.
This isn’t a commodity hardware business anymore. It’s a mission-critical software platform with network effects and switching costs that would be suicidal for most departments.
Europe: The $3.7 Billion Opportunity Nobody’s Pricing In
While U.S. penetration is already deep (over 18,000 agencies), international markets are still in the single-digit percentage range.
Europe alone represents what analysts call an “accelerating” $3.7 billion total addressable market across 17 countries. Regulatory hurdles are finally easing, pilot programs are expanding, and the same budget pressures that drove U.S. adoption are now hitting European forces.
Think about that: a multi-billion-dollar greenfield opportunity for a company that already dominates its home market. That kind of runway is incredibly rare at this size.
Putting the Valuation in Perspective
Let’s do some quick math that still blows my mind.
The company is guiding for roughly 25-30% revenue growth in 2026, with adjusted operating margins pushing toward 30%. That puts them on a path to $3 billion in sales at nearly $1 billion of operating profit, potentially more if the AI products keep over-delivering.
Yet the stock currently trades at about 10 times 2027 sales. For context, that’s cheaper than it’s been since 2019, back when revenue was less than a third of today’s run rate and they had no meaningful software business.
In my experience, when a true compounder, one with durable competitive advantages and multiple growth vectors, trades at a five-year low valuation, the upside from that point is usually measured in multiples, not percentages.
Risks? Of Course. But They’re Manageable
No investment is risk-free, and this one comes with the usual suspects:
- Government budget cycles can be lumpy
- Tariff noise could resurface
- Competition in body cameras is increasing
- Any high-profile incident involving their products makes headlines
But here’s the counterweight: management’s track record is exceptional. They’ve navigated controversies, budget crises, and competitive threats for two decades while growing revenue 25x. The balance sheet is pristine (net cash), insider ownership is high, and the core demand drivers (officer safety, accountability, and efficiency) are arguably getting stronger, not weaker.
The Bottom Line – Don’t Overthink This One
Sometimes the best ideas are the obvious ones hiding in plain sight.
A market leader with accelerating software adoption, massive international upside, pricing power, and a management team that’s delivered 30%+ compound returns for shareholders over the past decade… now trading at its cheapest valuation in years because of one tariff-related speed bump.
Wall Street’s smartest analysts are pounding the table. Institutional ownership continues to rise. And the fundamental story keeps getting better.
If you’ve been waiting for a pullback in high-quality growth names, congratulations. Your invitation just arrived.
2026 could very well be the year this public-safety powerhouse reminds everyone why it’s been one of the best-performing stocks of the past decade.
And if the analysts are even half right about that 60% upside? Well, let’s just say your future self might send a thank-you note for paying attention today.
