I still remember my first real Black Friday. It was 2007, I was broke, and a 50-inch plasma TV was on sale for what felt like pocket change. I camped outside in 30-degree weather with a thermos of terrible coffee, high-fiving strangers when the doors finally flew open. That rush? Unbeatable. Fast-forward to last year and I bought basically the same TV from my couch on November 3rd, shrugged, and went back to scrolling. Something fundamental broke along the way.
The Day That Used to Stop the Country
For decades, the day after Thanksgiving was more than a sale – it was an event. Stores planned twelve months in advance, vendors were strong-armed into giving rock-bottom wholesale prices, and the entire operation hinged on one thing: scarcity. You had to be there, right when the doors opened, or the deal was gone forever. Miss it and you’d pay hundreds more in January. That urgency created electricity in the air you could practically smell along with the Cinnabon from the food court.
Then retailers got greedy – in the best and worst way possible.
How “One Day Only” Became “Two Months Maybe”
It started innocently enough. First, doors opened at 5 a.m. instead of 6. Then 4 a.m. Then midnight. Then Thanksgiving afternoon. Pretty soon Amazon dropped “Black Friday deals start now” emails in early November, and every big box chain panicked and followed. Why risk everything on 24 hours when you can milk the hype for weeks?
The math made sense on a spreadsheet. Spread the promotional budget over six weeks instead of one day and your labor scheduling nightmare shrinks. Inventory doesn’t have to arrive perfectly timed – just trickle it in. Customers still spend the same amount overall, right? Except they don’t. Not anymore.
“To sustain the ride, they started to dilute it.”
– Former department-store CEO with decades in the game
That sentence hits harder the longer you think about it. Dilution is exactly what happened.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (And They’re Brutal)
Let’s get the cold water ready. Over the last six years more people have shopped online on Black Friday than set foot in a physical store. Foot traffic? Basically flat since the post-pandemic bump in 2021. The “Turkey 5” (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) saw spending drop almost 13% between 2019 and 2024 – and surveys say we’re planning to spend another 4% less this year.
- Millennials and Gen X planning most purchases specifically on Black Friday: down sharply since 2021
- Gen Z and boomers: basically unchanged
- Average spend per person over the five-day weekend: shrinking two years straight
Translation? The people with the most money to spend have checked out of the Black Friday circus.
The Online Shopping Explosion Changed Everything
Covid was the accelerant nobody saw coming. In 2020 millions of Americans who had never bought clothes, electronics, or even groceries online suddenly had no choice. Habits formed in a matter of weeks that would have taken a decade otherwise. When stores reopened, a huge chunk of the population realized they never needed to freeze in a parking lot at 3 a.m. again.
Retailers saw the shift and leaned in hard. Why pay overtime for 5,000 extra staff on one Friday when servers scale automatically? Why fight for parking spots and security guards when a warehouse robot can pick and pack 24/7? The in-person spectacle became an expensive relic almost overnight.
Trust Is Gone – And That’s the Real Killer
Perhaps the saddest part is that shoppers aren’t even sure the deals are real anymore. When the same sweater is 40% off in October, 50% off on “Black Friday,” and 60% off two weeks later, the whole concept of a once-in-a-year price collapses. Add in the fact that some retailers have been caught raising regular prices in September just to slash them in November, and you get outright skepticism.
“The whole idea of creating urgency is kind of goofy and gone.”
I felt it myself last year. Saw a kitchen gadget “on sale” for Black Friday, opened a price-tracker tab, and watched it hit the same price three times earlier in the fall. Closed the browser and moved on. Multiply that moment by tens of millions of consumers and you understand why cash registers aren’t singing like they used to.
What Retailers Are Doing Instead (And Whether It Works)
Smart chains have accepted reality and splintered their promotions into bite-sized events throughout November and December. Think “Early Black Friday,” “Black Friday Week,” “Pre-Cyber Week,” and whatever new name marketing cooks up next month. Others close on Thanksgiving entirely but blast deals online – a compromise that keeps employees happy and still moves product.
The result is a holiday shopping season that feels less like a sprint and more like a very long, slightly discounted jog. Some shoppers love the breathing room – they can spread spending across two paychecks instead of blowing the budget in 72 hours. Others miss the adrenaline and the bragging rights of scoring the doorbuster.
Is There Any Way Back?
Honestly? Probably not to the old days. The genie is out of the bottle on online shopping, price transparency, and flexible workforces. What retailers could do is bring back genuine scarcity on a handful of items – real lightning deals that sell out in minutes and never come back. Create theater again. Make showing up (or frantically refreshing an app) feel worth it.
Until then, Black Friday will keep drifting toward just another promotional day in a sea of promotional days. The crowds won’t return in force, the spending won’t spike like it once did, and that electric feeling from 2007 will stay locked in memory and grainy YouTube videos.
Maybe that’s okay. Maybe we’ve outgrown trampling each other for discounted towels. Or maybe – just maybe – we lost something fun when retail’s biggest party turned into another Tuesday with 30% off.
Either way, if you’re heading out this year, bring a light jacket. You won’t need the heavy one anymore.
