Remember when Boeing was the unbreakable name in aerospace? The company that basically owned the skies? Yeah, the last six or seven years have been brutal. Door plugs blowing out, massive 737 MAX grounding, strikes, billions in losses, you name it. Most investors I know ran for the hills.
And honestly? I get it. Watching a blue-chip icon stumble that hard is painful. But every once in a while the market over-punishes a great franchise, and that’s when the really interesting things get interesting for patient investors.
Right now, Boeing sits about 15% below where it traded before its October earnings report, while the S&P 500 has barely budged. To some people that’s just another red flag. To others myself included it’s starting to look like the classic “baby thrown out with the bathwater” setup.
One Analyst Says the Stock Could Nearly Double by 2030
That’s the bold call coming from a senior aerospace analyst at a highly regarded European firm this week. He kept his Buy rating firmly in place and, even after trimming his near-term price target a bit (from $270 down to $255), still sees roughly 37% upside over the next 12-18 months.
But here’s where it gets really exciting. When he runs a longer-term sum-of-the-parts valuation out to 2030, the numbers start looking almost unbelievable, potentially pushing the stock close to double today’s price by the end of the decade.
His exact words? “Fundamentally, this puts Boeing on a path where the stock could almost double from its current level by the end of the decade.” When an analyst with a solid track record says something that aggressive about a $100+ billion company, I sit up and listen.
What Caused the Latest Sell-Off?
Two things hit the stock hard after the Q3 report:
- A much larger-than-expected accounting charge on the long-delayed 777X program
- Slower-than-hoped ramp in 737 MAX deliveries (they’re still working through quality and supply-chain kinks)
Those issues forced earnings cuts across the Street and sent the shares tumbling. Classic near-term noise crushing a longer-term story.
The analyst acknowledges the disappointment but argues the reaction has been overdone. In his view, these are the final chapters of Boeing’s “fix-it” phase, not the beginning of a new crisis.
“While we understand why investors may be disappointed by the news flow and estimate cuts, we think the pullback offers a good buying opportunity in a long-horizon recovery story.”
Why the Long-Term Picture Remains Intact
Perhaps the most encouraging part of the note is that none of Boeing’s out-year forecasts (2027-2030) were touched. The delays and charges are painful today, but they aren’t derailing the eventual normalization everyone has been waiting for.
Think of it like a house renovation that runs way over budget and takes twice as long. Annoying? Absolutely. But once the dust settles, you still end up with a much more valuable house.
Boeing’s “house” includes:
- The commercial airplane duopoly with Airbus (insanely high barriers to entry)
- A massive defense & space backlog
- Pricing power returning as production rates climb
- Eventually, very significant free cash flow generation
When those engines finally hum together again, the cash flow could be staggering.
Risk Retirement – The Most Underrated Part of the Story
I’ve followed Boeing closely for years, and the single biggest change I’ve noticed recently is how management has shifted from firefighting to risk retirement.
Remember when every quarter seemed to bring a new multi-billion-dollar surprise charge? Those days appear to be ending. One by one, the major overhangs are getting checked off:
- 737 MAX fully re-certified and flying again
- Spirit AeroSystems acquired (vertical integration + quality control)
- New labor contract signed after the strike
- 777X charge largely taken (the band-aid is ripped off)
- Next up: FAA approval of the 737-7 and 737-10 variants
Each item removed from the worry list dramatically reduces the probability of future negative surprises. That’s hugely important for a stock that has essentially been un-investable for many institutions because of earnings volatility.
“The situation looks increasingly under control, as risk factors are retired one after another. This progressively reduces the likelihood of new earnings disappointments.”
The Free Cash Flow Explosion Everyone Is Sleeping On
If there’s one metric that could drive Boeing shares dramatically higher over the rest of the decade, it’s free cash flow.
Right now the company burns cash or barely breaks even while it digs out of the hole. But as production rates climb toward the mid-50s per month on the 737 and the 787 finally reaches decent margins, the cash should start gushing.
The analyst believes management will update the market on a new multi-year FCF target sometime in 2026 once the new CFO is fully settled. His own modeling suggests that just getting to normalized production could add more than $2.5 billion annually to the cash flow guidance.
And once Wall Street starts pricing Boeing on 10-12x free cash flow instead of today’s skeptical 20x+ forward earnings (or worse, no earnings at all), the valuation gap versus history and versus Airbus closes fast.
Valuation: Still Cheap Relative to History
Let’s put some simple numbers on it.
Pre-crisis (2018), Boeing traded around 20x forward earnings and generated roughly $13-15 billion in annual free cash flow at peak.
Today the stock trades a little over 30x 2026 consensus EPS estimates that are still depressed because of all the noise. On a longer-term normalized FCF basis, many analysts (including this one) think the shares are trading closer to 10-12x, maybe even less.
Apply a conservative 15x to $12-14 billion of eventual annual FCF and you get a market cap north of $180-200 billion. That’s 70-90% upside from today’s ~$105 billion capitalization. A double starts looking very plausible.
The Biggest Risks Remaining
Look, I’m not here to pretend Boeing is risk-free. Far from it.
- Further 777X delays or charges could still happen
- Geopolitical issues could slow defense spending
- Supply chain or labor issues could cap the production ramp
- Recession would obviously hurt airline orders
But compare that list to the risk menu in 2019-2022, and it’s night and day. The distribution of outcomes has shifted dramatically toward the positive.
So… Is It Finally Time to Back Up the Truck?
Not quite. I’m not pounding the table for aggressive new positions today.
But I am saying this: for long-term investors with a 5-7 year horizon, the risk/reward is starting to look extremely compelling. The margin of safety is the widest it’s been in years, and the catalysts (risk retirement + production ramp + cash flow inflection) are finally lining up.
If you’re the type who regrets not buying Amazon in 2001 or Apple in 2003 when everyone swore they were finished, Boeing’s setup today will probably feel familiar in a decade.
Sometimes the best investments are the ones that still feel a little uncomfortable. And right now, Boeing definitely still feels uncomfortable to most people.
That, paradoxically, is exactly why it might be worth a very close look.
Disclosure: I do not currently own Boeing shares, but I’m seriously considering initiating a position in the coming months if the price stays weak. This is not advice – always do your own research.
