I was stuck in an airport lounge last week, sipping an overpriced coffee, watching the gate agents call standby names like they were auctioning rare art. Every seat taken. Not a single empty middle seat in sight. That’s when it hit me — all the talk about the “tired consumer” feels like it’s coming from a different planet.
People aren’t slowing down. They’re accelerating.
The Consumer Everyone Keeps Burying Is Actually Breaking Records
We’ve been hearing the same narrative for three years now: rising rates, sticky inflation, student loans restarting, credit-card delinquencies at the low end — surely the American consumer is finally going to roll over and play dead.
Only one problem with that story. Reality refuses to cooperate.
On December 1, 2025, the TSA screened 3.13 million passengers in a single day — the highest number ever recorded. That’s not just beating last year. It’s crushing every pre-pandemic peak, every summer rush, every Thanksgiving weekend we ever thought was “busy.”
Load factors on the major airlines? Sitting comfortably above 85%, flirting with historic highs. Hotels? Revenue per available room rose across every single category — luxury down to economy — this year. Cruise lines? 2025 bookings already running ahead of last year’s record pace.
In other words, discretionary travel spending isn’t softening. It’s on fire.
Yes, There Are Pockets of Weakness — They Always Exist
Of course certain segments are hurting. Las Vegas feels expensive and corporate to a lot of middle-class gamblers. Some international routes have softened. Lower-income households are clearly trading down or staying home.
But here’s the thing nobody wants to admit: that’s normal. There have always been winners and losers inside the consumer universe. The fact that the bottom 30% is feeling pinched doesn’t mean the top 70% suddenly forgot how to swipe a credit card.
And right now, the upper half — especially the top 20% — is spending like tomorrow is guaranteed.
Delta Air Lines: The Highest-Quality Name in a Boom Market
If you want pure-play exposure to wealthy, frequent travelers who almost never cancel trips, there is still only one obvious answer: Delta Air Lines (DAL).
Delta didn’t just survive the last five years. It came out stronger, more premium-focused, and operationally dominant. Over the last decade it has delivered 12% annualized returns while United managed 9%, Southwest 8%, and American a measly 2%.
Delta’s completion factor — the percentage of flights that operate without cancellation — has averaged 98.7% since 2014. That reliability isn’t an accident; it’s a deliberate corporate religion.
The payoff shows up in the numbers most investors ignore until it’s too late:
- Premium revenue now represents 60% of total passenger revenue — up 3 points in a single year
- Delta One and First Class margins run 15+ points higher than main cabin
- Business Travel News ranked Delta #1 for the 15th straight year — sweeping all eleven categories
- Net Promoter Scores consistently lead the industry
Management keeps saying the same thing on every earnings call: “Our customer is healthy. The vast majority earn over $100k household income.” Roughly 40% of U.S. households fit that description — and Delta owns the lion’s share of their travel wallet.
Technically, the stock is knocking on the door of all-time highs again. A decisive move through $70 on volume feels inevitable if oil stays range-bound. I’d rather buy the breakout trigger a buy-stop than chase early — but the setup is textbook.
Expedia Group: The Booking Platform That Keeps Beating
Most people think they missed Expedia because it already ripped 18% after November earnings and sits near record highs. They’re wrong.
Last time the stock traded at these levels in 2021-2022, it commanded a trailing P/E north of 150. Today? 26 times trailing earnings, under 20 times forward. The valuation reset is real.
Fundamentals are catching up fast:
- U.S. room nights hit 108 million in Q3 — highest growth in over three years (+11% y/y)
- Inbound travel to the U.S. almost fully recovered
- Europe-to-U.S. growth re-accelerated after a soft Q2
- Full-year margin guidance raised — expecting +200 bps expansion in Q4
- Net income up 40% year-over-year
The beauty of Expedia is that it’s levered to global travel flows without owning a single airplane or hotel. When people feel wealthy, they book trips. When they book trips, a big chunk flows through platforms like Expedia, Booking, and Airbnb. Expedia just happens to be the cheapest of the three on forward earnings right now.
Support sits right around that 50-day moving average near $233. A print below there would be my stop, but I don’t expect to see it anytime soon.
Why This Matters Beyond Just Two Stocks
Travel is the ultimate discretionary purchase. You can delay a new car, put off remodeling the kitchen, skip the fancy purse. But once you’ve mentally committed to that trip with your family or friends, almost nothing stops you from going.
Psychologists call it the “experiential advantage.” Experiences create anticipation before, memories after, and social currency in between. Stuff just sits in your garage.
When a society reaches the income level where the majority can afford experiences over things, you get structural tailwinds that last decades. We’re deep into that shift.
Add in remote work flexibility, the revenge-travel hangover that never actually ended, and a growing global middle class discovering America as a destination, and you start to understand why every travel CEO keeps sounding the same cheerful note.
Risks? Of Course — But They’re the Usual Suspects
A sudden oil spike to $100 would hurt margins fast. A deep recession concentrated in high-income earners (unlikely) would finally slow premium demand. Geopolitical flare-ups could scare international visitors.
But absent those binary shocks, the path of least resistance for travel spending — and the stocks levered to it — remains higher.
In my experience, the market almost always over-discounts the death of the consumer and under-discounts the resilience of human desire to explore, connect, and make memories.
2025 is delivering the latest proof.
If you’ve been waiting for confirmation before putting money to work in this theme, consider it delivered — in 3.13 million little confirmations walking through TSA lines on a random Monday in December.
See you at 30,000 feet.
