Why Europe’s Equality Dream Is Failing: A 2035 Outlook

Have you ever wondered what happens when a noble ideal like equality becomes a shackle? I’ve been mulling over this lately, especially when looking at Europe’s trajectory compared to the United States. The numbers tell a story that’s hard to ignore: in 2023, the US boasted a GDP per capita of $82,770, exactly double the EU’s $41,420. That’s not just a gap—it’s a chasm. And as we peer into the next decade, from 2025 to 2035, the question looms: is Europe’s obsession with material equality dragging it into a quagmire of economic stagnation?

The Great Divide: Europe vs. US Economic Trajectories

Let’s start with the cold, hard facts. The United States has been outpacing Europe economically for years, and the trend shows no signs of slowing. Between 2010 and 2023, the US averaged 2.2% annual real GDP growth, while Europe limped along at a mere 1.3%. Productivity gains in the US clocked in at 14%, nearly double Europe’s 7%. Add to that America’s energy self-sufficiency since 2019 and a robust 3.4% of GDP spent on research and development, and you’ve got a recipe for economic dominance.

Europe, on the other hand, faces a shrinking working-age population—losing about a million people annually—and an energy dependence rate still hovering around 58%. These aren’t just numbers; they’re warning signs. If current trends hold, by 2035, the average American could be earning over $100,000 a year, while Europeans might be stuck closer to $50,000. That’s not a typo. A dog-walker in Beverly Hills could soon outearn a French doctor. How did we get here?

The Equality Obsession: A Noble but Flawed Ideal

I remember a conversation with a colleague years ago, a well-meaning academic who argued passionately that inequality was the root of all societal woes. It’s a sentiment that resonates across Europe, where material equality is often treated as the ultimate moral good. But here’s the rub: true equality is a mirage. Hand every European $100,000 today, and by tomorrow, you’d have a few tycoons, a handful of broke dreamers, and everyone else scattered in between. That’s not cynicism; it’s human nature.

Equality as a goal often masks the cost of enforced uniformity.

– Economic analyst

Europe’s fixation on reducing inequality has led to policies that prioritize redistribution over growth. Taxes are high, regulations are tight, and the welfare state is sprawling. While these systems aim to level the playing field, they often stifle ambition and innovation. In my view, the pursuit of equality has become less about lifting everyone up and more about ensuring no one rises too far above the rest. The result? A continent that’s increasingly equal—in misery.

The Economic Cost of Redistribution

Let’s break this down. Europe’s redistribution apparatus—think hefty taxes and generous social programs—consumes resources that could otherwise fuel growth. In 2023, the EU’s public spending as a percentage of GDP was significantly higher than the US’s. While this funds robust healthcare and education, it also creates a dependency culture where risk-taking is discouraged. Why innovate when the state will cushion your fall but clip your wings if you soar?

• High taxes deter entrepreneurship by reducing disposable income.
• Complex regulations make it harder for startups to thrive.
• Generous welfare reduces the incentive to take financial risks.

Contrast this with the US, where a flexible labor market and lower taxes create a playground for ambition. Sure, inequality is higher—median income lags behind the average more than in Europe—but the tradeoff is dynamism. The US rewards those who hustle, innovate, and take risks. Europe, meanwhile, seems content to manage decline rather than chase growth.

Energy: The Silent Killer of European Competitiveness

Here’s where things get really sticky. Energy costs in Europe are five times higher than in the US. Five. Times. That’s not a typo, and it’s a direct result of policies like the European Green Deal, which prioritizes environmental goals over economic pragmatism. While the intention is noble—reducing carbon emissions is no small feat—the execution has been a disaster for industry. Factories are fleeing to the US, where energy is cheap and abundant thanks to shale gas and oil.

High energy costs don’t just hurt factories; they ripple through the economy. Small businesses, households, and even public services feel the pinch. I’ve spoken to friends in Germany who dread their winter heating bills. Meanwhile, the US’s energy self-sufficiency since 2019 has given it a competitive edge that Europe can only dream of. Is it any wonder industries are packing up and crossing the Atlantic?

The Capital Conundrum: Where’s the Money?

Capital is the lifeblood of innovation, and Europe is bleeding out. In the US, companies like NVIDIA and TSMC are pouring hundreds of billions into research and development. That kind of money doesn’t materialize out of thin air—it comes from private investment, venture capital, and a culture that rewards risk. Europe, by contrast, has a savings problem. Europeans save, sure, but their money flows into safe assets like property or life insurance—or, ironically, into US markets.

Without capital, there’s no capitalism—just stagnation.

– Financial strategist

Why does this happen? Europe’s tax and regulatory environment discourages the kind of bold investments that drive breakthroughs. Public pension systems, funded through general budgets, further drain resources that could be funneled into private investment. Shifting to private pension schemes could help, but it would require a cultural overhaul—a willingness to accept that not everyone will end up with the same slice of the pie. In my experience, that’s a tough sell in a continent wedded to the idea of equality.

The Demographic Dilemma

Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: Europe’s population is shrinking. The working-age population drops by about one million people a year. Fewer workers mean less economic output, fewer taxpayers, and more strain on social systems. The US, with modest demographic growth of 0.5% annually, doesn’t face this issue to the same degree. Europe’s aging population is a ticking time bomb, and no amount of redistribution can fix it.

1. A shrinking workforce reduces economic output.
2. Fewer taxpayers strain public budgets.
3. An aging population increases healthcare and pension costs.

I’ve always found it striking how little this issue is discussed in mainstream European debates. It’s as if policymakers hope the problem will magically resolve itself. Spoiler alert: it won’t. Without immigration or policies to boost birth rates, Europe’s economic engine will continue to sputter.

Can Europe Turn the Tide?

Is Europe doomed to become an economic backwater, a charming open-air museum as some have called it? Not necessarily, but the path to recovery is steep. Two seismic shifts could pull Europe back from the brink, though they’d require a level of political courage that’s been in short supply.

1. Embrace Dynamic Capital

First, Europe needs to rethink its approach to capital. Innovation requires vast sums, and those sums won’t appear if the state keeps taxing wealth into oblivion. Encouraging private investment—through tax breaks, deregulation, or private pension schemes—could create the pools of capital needed for the next big breakthrough. But this means accepting inequality as a byproduct of growth, a bitter pill for many Europeans.

2. Rethink the Green Deal

Second, the European Green Deal needs a serious overhaul. Green goals are important, but they can’t come at the expense of economic survival. Balancing environmental policies with affordable energy is critical. If Europe wants to keep its industries, it needs to compete with the US on energy costs. That might mean embracing nuclear energy or loosening some of the Green Deal’s stricter mandates.

These changes sound radical because they are. They’d require leaders to challenge deeply ingrained beliefs about equality and environmental purity. But history moves fast, and Europe has reinvented itself before. Perhaps the most intriguing question is whether today’s leaders have the vision to pull it off.

The 2035 Horizon: A Tale of Two Continents

Fast-forward to 2035. If current trends hold, the economic gap between the US and Europe will be stark. The US could see average incomes surpass $100,000, driven by productivity, energy independence, and innovation. Europe, meanwhile, risks stagnating at $50,000, hobbled by high energy costs, demographic decline, and a culture that prioritizes equality over ambition. Even accounting for lower living costs in Europe, the disparity is jarring.

The future belongs to those who dare to dream unequally.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Europe has strengths—longer life expectancy, cultural richness, and a highly educated workforce. The question is whether it can leverage these to close the gap. A technological renaissance or a geopolitical shock to the US could shift the balance, but these are long shots. More likely, Europe’s fate hinges on its ability to embrace change.

Final Thoughts: A Personal Reflection

I’ll be honest: writing this piece left me conflicted. On one hand, I admire Europe’s commitment to fairness and social cohesion. There’s something deeply human about wanting everyone to have a decent shot at life. But the data doesn’t lie, and neither does the trajectory. Europe’s dream of equality is noble, but it’s coming at a cost—a cost that could leave the continent trailing far behind the US by 2035.

What do you think? Is Europe’s pursuit of equality worth the economic price, or is it time for a bold new approach? The next decade will tell, but one thing’s clear: standing still is no longer an option.