Remember when gold was “boring” and everyone was chasing tech stocks and crypto? Yeah, those days are long gone.
As I write this in late 2025, gold is trading north of $4,200 an ounce, and the momentum feels completely different from anything I’ve seen in the past decade. It’s not just a rally anymore; it feels like the early stages of something historic.
Most mainstream coverage focuses on the obvious: inflation fears, geopolitical tension, a weaker dollar. Those matter, sure. But there are at least eight deeper, less-reported developments that are quietly turbo-charging this move, and when you put them all together, the path to $10,000 gold (or much higher) starts looking almost inevitable.
We’re in the Third Great Gold Bull Market – And This One Feels Different
Let’s start with a quick history lesson, because context is everything.
The first modern gold bull ran from 1971 (when Nixon closed the gold window) to 1980. Gold exploded roughly 2,200% in less than nine years. The second ran from roughly 1999–2011 and delivered around 670% gains. Both ended with manic blow-off tops and years of painful correction.
The third one? It’s harder to pin down an exact start, but the real breakout above $2,000 didn’t stick until mid-2023. From that base, gold has already delivered more than 110% in just over two years, and unlike the previous two cycles, there is still almost no retail participation. That tells me we’re probably still in the middle innings.
Here’s the part that keeps me up at night in a good way: each $1,000 move higher gets easier than the last because the percentage gain required keeps shrinking.
- $2,000 → $3,000 = +50%
- $4,000 → $5,000 = +25%
- $9,000 → $10,000 = +11%
Once momentum really picks up, the ride from $8,000 to $15,000 could happen faster than most people can imagine.
1. Central Banks Can’t Stop Buying – And They’re Getting Louder About It
Forget the “net buyer since 2010” headline. The pace has absolutely exploded since 2022. We’re talking about emerging-market central banks adding thousands of tonnes with almost no public fanfare.
Why now? Simple. They watched Russia survive brutal financial sanctions while holding more than 25% of its reserves in physical gold that nobody could freeze. That demonstration effect is massive. Countries that spent decades trusting the dollar system suddenly realized physical gold is the ultimate “no counterparty” asset.
In my view, this trend has decades left to run. When you’re a finance minister in the Global South, would you rather hold U.S. Treasuries that can be weaponized, or silent bars in your own vault?
2. Mining Supply Has Flatlined – And That’s Being Polite
New gold discoveries are at multi-decade lows, grades are falling, and the easy deposits were mined long ago. Global mine production has been essentially flat since 2018 despite much higher prices.
That’s not “peak gold” in the apocalyptic sense, but it is a structural supply ceiling. Meanwhile demand (especially from the sources below) keeps rising). Basic economics takes over from there.
3. The Copper-to-Gold Ratio Is Screaming “Something Big Is Happening”
This ratio is one of the oldest indicators in the commodity world. When it collapses to historic lows (as it has now), it usually signals that precious metals are being favored over industrial metals, often ahead of recession or major monetary stress.
In plain English: markets are preparing for a world where growth slows but systemic risks explode. Gold thrives in exactly that environment.
4. Tokenized Gold Just Quietly Became One of the Largest Holders on Earth
Here’s a number that should stop you in your tracks: certain gold-backed digital tokens now represent demand equivalent to more than 16 tonnes of physical gold locked in vaults, and that metal never hits the market again. It’s the ultimate buy-and-hold investor.
This isn’t speculative trading; it’s structural removal of supply to back 24/7 digital settlement. Every time someone buys one of these tokens, a real bar somewhere gets taken off the market permanently. That trend is still in its infancy.
5. Nations Are Starting to Fight Over Who Actually Owns the Gold
When a major European country openly debates whether its 2,452-tonne stockpile belongs to the central bank or directly to the citizens, you know the psychological landscape has shifted.
That debate cooled for now, but the fact it happened at all is revealing. Politicians are beginning to view national gold reserves as political capital, not just balance-sheet items. That almost always leads to repatriation demands, audits, and even higher prices.
6. Retail Is Finally Waking Up – And It’s Only Just Beginning
When mainstream media personalities start launching their own gold dealerships and advertising during prime time, you’re moving from the “smart money” phase to the “public participation” phase.
We saw the same pattern in 2009–2011. The moment your Uber driver starts giving you gold tips, the final leg is usually underway. We’re not there yet, but the on-ramp is clearly visible.
7. The U.S. Treasury Is Quietly Studying a Gold Revaluation
Right now, the 261 million ounces of U.S. gold are still carried on the books at the absurd price of $42.22 per ounce – a holdover from 1934, updated once in 1973.
Senior officials have begun circulating serious papers about marking that gold closer to market value. Even if it’s only an accounting change, it would instantly create roughly $1 trillion of new fiscal space on the Treasury’s balance sheet without printing a single extra dollar.
That alone would send an earthquake through global markets and confirm gold’s return as a Tier 1 monetary asset.
8. The Old Rules No Longer Apply
In past cycles, gold needed high inflation or a hot economy to run. This time it’s rising alongside falling real yields, slowing growth, and moderating CPI – exactly the environment that used to kill it.
That tells me the driver has shifted from inflation hedge to systemic hedge. Investors aren’t buying gold because they’re afraid of 8% inflation; they’re buying because they’re afraid the financial system itself might not survive the next decade in its current form.
Look, I’m not here to predict $100,000 gold tomorrow. But when I step back and connect these eight forces, central bank buying, supply stagnation, tokenization, political reawakening, retail momentum, potential U.S. revaluation, and a complete shift in what drives demand, the conclusion feels almost inescapable.
We are still early.
If you’ve been waiting for the “perfect” entry point, understand that perfect is the enemy of good in trending bull markets. The biggest gains almost always come after the move feels obvious to everyone.
Gold at $4,200 doesn’t feel obvious yet. When it hits $8,000 or $10,000, it will.
By then, the easy money will have already been made.
The best time to buy gold was twenty years ago. The second-best time is right now.
Stay diversified, stay patient, and whatever you do, don’t let this cycle pass you by without at the starting line.
