Have you ever sat on a tarmac, engines screaming, burning what feels like a small fortune in jet fuel, and thought: there has to be a better way? Turns out a small company from Vermont might have already built it—and some of the sharpest minds on Wall Street just woke up to the idea.
Since its early November debut on the Big Board, the stock has been volatile, down nearly a third at one point. Yet in the last few days something fascinating happened: coverage rolled in from almost every major bank, and almost every single one slapped a buy rating on it. Not polite, lukewarm buys either—real conviction, with one desk forecasting another 50% run from here.
In a market that punishes anything that smells even slightly speculative, that kind of unanimous praise feels almost suspicious. So I dug in. And the more I learned, the more I understood why the smart money is quietly excited.
A Different Kind of Aviation Disruptor
Most of us picture the future of flight and immediately think of those sleek urban air-taxi renderings—flying Ubers zipping between rooftop helipads. That’s sexy, sure, but it’s also the hardest possible way to break into aviation. Regulators hate putting passengers over downtown traffic on day one.
This company took the opposite bet, and honestly, it feels brilliant.
Instead of chasing the passenger market straight away, they’re focusing on the missions airlines and regulators actually want solved right now: cargo, medical evacuations, and military logistics. Lower regulatory hurdles, willing early customers, and—crucially—paying contracts today, not in 2035.
Two Aircraft, One Smart Roadmap
They’re bringing two models through certification at the same time, which is unusual and frankly gutsy.
- The CX300—conventional runway takeoff and landing, perfect for regional cargo and medical flights.
- The A250—vertical lift when you need it, no runway required. Think remote medevac or forward military bases.
Both share the same electric powertrain, same battery packs, same avionics. That overlap slashes development cost and, more importantly, creates a single aftermarket ecosystem. If you’ve ever wondered why car companies love platform sharing, multiply that logic by a few billion dollars in aerospace.
The Charging Network Nobody Talks About (Yet)
Here’s the part that really got me leaning forward in my chair.
While competitors argue over whose vertiport design is prettiest, this team has quietly rolled out 84 charging locations across the U.S.—and they own them. Not leased, not partnered, owned. That’s infrastructure that will be worth a fortune once fleets start scaling.
Think Tesla Supercharger network, but for airplanes. Whoever controls the plugs controls the ecosystem.
Every cargo operator, every air ambulance service, every military customer will need fast, reliable charging. And guess who already has the land, the permits, and the hardware in place? That’s a moat wider than most people realize.
The Aftermarket Goldmine Hiding in Plain Sight
Aviation isn’t like consumer tech. You don’t sell the razor and give away the blades—you sell the razor once and then milk the blades for decades.
One analyst I read put it bluntly: lifetime profits on aftermarket parts routinely dwarf the original sale price, sometimes by five or ten times. Batteries, motors, power electronics—those are recurring, high-margin, mission-critical components.
Because everything is electric and largely shared between the two models, the company is basically pre-engineering itself for fat, predictable service revenue from year three onward. That’s the kind of business model that makes value investors salivate.
What the Price Targets Are Really Saying
Let’s talk numbers for a second, because they’re eye-opening.
The most aggressive target I’ve seen sits around 50% above current levels. The more conservative ones still call for low-to-mid twenties upside. That’s not some pie-in-the-sky 2030 vision—that’s what these desks believe the company is worth in the next 12-18 months, assuming certification stays on track.
And certification looks realistic before the end of the decade. The FAA has been surprisingly collaborative with electric propulsion programs lately. Progress reports read more like “when,” not “if.”
Risks? Of Course There Are Risks
I’d be doing you a disservice if I painted this as a guaranteed moonshot.
- Certification delays happen. Always.
- Battery energy density still needs to keep improving.
- Capital burn is real until meaningful revenue ramps.
- Competition is waking up—some with deeper pockets.
But here’s what separates this story from the crowd: the company raised over a billion dollars at IPO. Cash runway is long. Early customers are already locked in with deposits. And the addressable markets—cargo and medevac alone—are measured in tens of billions, not some hypothetical urban air-taxi fantasy.
Why the Post-IPO Selloff Actually Makes Sense
Any hot IPO gets taken out back and shot a little bit. Lock-up expirations, profit-taking, index funds slow to add—it’s normal. What’s not normal is having Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and others all initiate with buys inside the same week.
In my experience, when the sell-side lines up like that after an IPO shakeout, it’s usually because the story checks out at the diligence level. They’ve kicked the tires. They’ve modeled the battery replacement cycle. They’ve talked to the DoD program managers. And they still want in.
Where This Could Go in Five Years
Best-case? They become the picks-and-shovels winner of electric aviation. They won’t necessarily fly the most passengers, but they could charge everyone else’s planes, service everyone else’s batteries, and quietly compound into a cash-flow monster.
Worst-case? Certification slips, capital markets tighten, and it becomes a long, painful grind. Possible, but the current valuation already prices in quite a bit of that pain.
Somewhere in the middle—and this is where I personally lean—is a company that starts delivering aircraft in 2028-2029, rapidly scales a high-margin service business, and ends up looking a lot like the early days of another Vermont success story that rhymes with “special.”
Electric aviation is coming. The question isn’t “if” anymore—it’s “who gets there first with a profitable, scalable model.”
Right now, a growing chorus on Wall Street is betting the answer is a company most people still can’t pronounce.
And after spending the weekend reading through the notes, tearing apart the financial model, and watching test-flight footage that legitimately gave me goosebumps—I think they might be right.
Obviously this isn’t investment advice—do your own homework, size positions appropriately, all the usual disclaimers. But if you’ve been waiting for the electric aviation theme to produce a name that actually makes business sense instead of just rendering porn, well… the wait might be over.
Sometimes the future doesn’t arrive with a splashy keynote and a $10 billion valuation. Sometimes it lands quietly on a grass strip in Vermont, charges its batteries, and gets back to work.
Keep an eye on this one.
