Remember when everyone said Dogecoin was dead after 2022? Then it ripped 15,000% in 2021 and did it again with another 300% move late last year. Right now, though, the vibe feels eerily similar to the darkest days of the bear market. The original meme coin is down more than 70% from its most recent peak, and a lot of holders are asking the same painful question: have we finally hit the bottom, or is there more pain ahead?
Monday could change everything. Grayscale, the 800-pound gorilla of crypto investment products, is set to launch its spot Dogecoin ETF under the ticker GDOG. If history is any guide, ETF launches can act like rocket fuel. But this time feels different. Let’s dig into whether DOGE actually has a shot at rebounding before the opening bell—or if the bears still have the upper hand.
The Brutal Sell-Off in Context
Let’s not sugar-coat it: Dogecoin has been absolutely crushed lately. Four straight red weeks have pushed the price from above $0.40 all the way down to around $0.142 at the time of writing. That’s a drop that would make even the strongest diamond hands consider selling the family car.
To put that in perspective, DOGE is now trading at levels last seen consistently back in April—before the entire post-election euphoria kicked in. The meme coin that Elon Musk once sent to the moon on a whim is suddenly looking more like a falling star.
Yet here’s what catches my eye: every single time Dogecoin has approached this zone in 2025, buyers have stepped in aggressively. It’s almost like there’s an invisible floor around $0.13–$0.14 that the market refuses to let break. At least, so far.
Why This Particular Level Matters So Much
Zoom out to the weekly chart and something fascinating appears. The current price is sitting right on the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from the 2024 lows to the December highs. In trader speak, that’s the “golden pocket” where reversals often happen.
More interestingly, we’ve touched this exact zone three separate times this year—March, June, and now November—without ever closing a weekly candle meaningfully below it. Technical analysts call this a triple bottom, and it’s one of the most reliable bullish reversal patterns out there.
Triple bottoms that form after prolonged downtrends and hold above major Fibonacci levels have historically delivered average gains of 80%+ within six months in crypto.
– Pattern recognition studies across major altcoins
Of course, patterns are just possibilities until price confirms them. But the fact that we’re retesting this level exactly as a major catalyst approaches? That’s the kind of coincidence that gets traders paying attention.
The ETF Elephant in the Room
Grayscale’s GDOG ETF isn’t the first Dogecoin investment vehicle to hit the market. Back in September, the REX-Osprey fund launched using the 1940 Act structure, which should theoretically make it easier for traditional finance to pile in.
The results? Underwhelming would be generous. Total assets under management are still scraping along at roughly $24 million—pocket change in the world of ETFs. For comparison, some single-day trading volumes in DOGE futures exceed that amount by 50x.
- Canary Litecoin ETF (similar proof-of-work meme-adjacent coin): ~$7 million AUM
- REX-Osprey DOGE fund: ~$24 million AUM after months
- Typical successful spot Bitcoin ETF day-one inflow: billions
These numbers tell a pretty clear story: institutional demand for “joke” coins in regulated wrappers has been tepid at best. The Litecoin comparison is particularly brutal—same mining algorithm, similar history, even some overlapping community—but dramatically different ETF performance.
Open Interest Tells a Worrying Story
Another red flag flying high right now is futures open interest. At its peak earlier this year, Dogecoin perpetual futures had over $6 billion in outstanding contracts. Today? We’re scraping along at about $1.1 billion.
That kind of collapse in leveraged positioning usually means one of two things: either everyone who wanted to be long already got wrecked and left, or the smart money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for even lower prices. Neither scenario is particularly bullish in the short term.
I’ve watched this movie before. When open interest collapses like this ahead of a major catalyst, it often creates a vacuum. The question is whether that vacuum gets filled with fresh buying or simply more selling into weakness.
What Would Actually Spark a Rebound?
Let’s be real—ETF launches alone rarely move prices sustainably unless real money follows through. Bitcoin’s spot ETFs worked because institutions had been waiting years for a regulated way to get exposure. Dogecoin? Most traditional funds still view it as radioactive.
That said, there are a few scenarios where GDOG could actually matter:
- Surprise announcement of major seed capital (think BlackRock or Fidelity quietly providing liquidity)
- Elon Musk decides Monday is the perfect day to tweet about dogs, space, or both
- Broader crypto sentiment flips hard (Bitcoin breaking $90k would drag everything higher)
- Short squeeze mechanics—enough leveraged bears get complacent around these levels
Without at least one of these triggers, it’s hard to see GDOG doing much more than providing a brief “sell the news” pop followed by continuation of the downtrend.
The Bear Case Isn’t Hard to Make
If this triple bottom fails—and make no mistake, we’re testing it right now—the next major support doesn’t come in until around $0.10. That’s another 30% downside from current levels and would take us back to prices not seen since the depths of the 2022–2023 bear market.
More importantly, a weekly close below $0.13 would invalidate the entire bullish pattern setup that’s kept hope alive for months. Once technical traders see that, the selling could accelerate quickly.
The most dangerous words in trading are “this time it’s different.” Dogecoin has survived multiple “death” predictions, but gravity eventually wins if new money stops showing up.
So… Will It Rebound?
Here’s my honest take after watching Dogecoin cycles for years: the setup is actually pretty decent for at least a sharp relief rally. The triple bottom, the extreme Fibonacci retracement, the ETF catalyst timing—it’s all lining up in a way that would make any chart nerd raise an eyebrow.
But decent setup ≠ guaranteed moonshot.
The difference between Dogecoin ripping 100% in a week versus grinding down to $0.10 probably comes down to one thing: whether actual new capital shows up to defend this level. The ETF launch gives the bulls a narrative and a deadline. Now they have to prove they still have any ammunition left.
My base case? We see a volatile bounce early next week as traders position for the GDOG launch, potentially taking us back toward $0.20–$0.22 if sentiment cooperates. But unless we get confirmation of real inflows and broader market strength, I wouldn’t bet the farm on anything more sustainable than that.
The meme coin magic isn’t dead. But it’s definitely taking a nap right now. Whether Monday’s ETF launch is the alarm clock or just another snooze button remains to be seen.
Either way, one thing hasn’t changed: Dogecoin still manages to make the entire crypto market watch with bated breath every time it approaches a major inflection point. That’s the real superpower of the people’s coin—love it or hate it, you can’t ignore it.
