Wintermute Defends Binance in October Crypto Crash

5 min read
0 views
Jan 31, 2026

As fingers point at Binance for the massive October 2025 crypto crash, Wintermute's founder pushes back hard, calling single-exchange blame dishonest. What really triggered billions in liquidations—and could it happen again?

Financial market analysis from 31/01/2026. Market conditions may have changed since publication.

Imagine waking up to find your portfolio down 20% overnight, with headlines screaming about the worst liquidation event in crypto history. That’s exactly what happened on October 10, 2025, when the market shed billions in a matter of hours. I’ve followed these swings for years, and something about this one felt different—more vicious, more debated. Now, months later, the finger-pointing continues, but one prominent voice is cutting through the noise.

The founder of Wintermute, a major player in crypto trading, recently spoke out strongly against the idea that any single exchange single-handedly caused the meltdown. In his view, pinning it all on one platform misses the bigger picture. And honestly, after digging into the details, it’s hard not to see his point.

Unpacking the Real Drivers Behind the Chaos

Let’s step back for a moment. Markets don’t crash in a vacuum. There are usually layers—some obvious, others hidden until the pressure builds. This event was no exception. Macroeconomic headlines hit at the worst possible time, catching an already stretched market off guard.

Reports from the time mentioned aggressive tariff announcements targeting major trading partners. These weren’t small policy tweaks; they carried real weight for global risk sentiment. Crypto, being highly sensitive to risk-off moves, reacted sharply. But why did it spiral so far?

The Role of Overleverage in Modern Crypto

Leverage has always been a double-edged sword in trading. It amplifies gains when things go right, but when sentiment flips, the unwinding can be brutal. In late 2025, leverage levels across the space were elevated—some might say dangerously so. Traders were piling into positions, chasing yields that looked too good to pass up.

I’ve seen this pattern before in smaller corrections, but this time the scale was massive. When the macro news landed on a Friday evening—traditionally one of the thinnest liquidity windows—the selling pressure had nowhere to go but down. Market makers pulled back, bids vanished, and liquidations fed on themselves in a classic cascade.

  • High leverage across perpetual futures contracts created fragility.
  • Illiquid weekend hours meant fewer participants to absorb sales.
  • Automated systems triggered stops and liquidations at accelerating speed.

It’s easy to look for a villain in these stories. But blaming one platform ignores how interconnected everything has become. The whole ecosystem felt the pain, not just users of any particular exchange.

Debating Product Design and Marketing Practices

Not everyone agrees with the macro-only explanation. Some industry figures argued that certain yield products encouraged risky behavior. They pointed to promotional campaigns offering attractive returns on specific stable assets, suggesting these created hidden leverage loops.

The idea is straightforward: users convert regular stablecoins into a yield-bearing version, post it as collateral, borrow more, repeat. On paper, it boosts effective yields significantly. In calm markets, it works. In turbulence? It can amplify losses when collateral values slip.

Finding a scapegoat feels comfortable during tough times, but it rarely solves the underlying issues.

Industry observer reflection

That’s a sentiment I share. We’ve seen similar debates after past blowups. The truth usually lies in a combination of factors—greed, poor timing, and structural weaknesses—rather than one bad actor.

Still, the criticism raises valid questions about responsibility. When a major platform promotes high yields, should there be clearer warnings about the mechanics? Or is it ultimately on traders to understand what they’re using? In my view, education lags behind innovation in this space, and that’s a problem we keep paying for.

Timing and Liquidity: Why Friday Night Mattered

One detail that often gets overlooked is the exact timing. The sharpest moves happened during low-volume hours when many traditional desks are offline. Crypto never sleeps, but liquidity does ebb and flow. A macro shock landing then is like throwing gasoline on a smoldering fire.

Market makers, who normally step in to provide depth, face their own risk limits. When volatility spikes, they hedge or withdraw, worsening the vacuum. This isn’t unique to any one venue—it’s a market-wide dynamic.

Some compared the severity to past infamous collapses, but the mechanics were different. No single entity failed; instead, thousands of positions got margin-called in unison. The result? A record liquidation figure that shocked even seasoned participants.

What Industry Leaders Are Saying Now

The back-and-forth hasn’t died down. Public statements from key figures highlight the divide. One side emphasizes personal responsibility and broader conditions; the other calls for better safeguards around leveraged products.

It’s refreshing to see open discussion, even if it’s heated. Crypto evolves through these moments—painful as they are. Ignoring root causes would be worse than arguing about them.

  1. Macro events can trigger rapid deleveraging.
  2. Product design influences risk behavior.
  3. Liquidity windows matter more than people admit.
  4. Blame games distract from systemic fixes.
  5. Transparency and education remain critical.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how these debates reveal maturity levels. The space is growing up, slowly. Arguments like these push platforms to tighten risk controls and users to think twice before maxing leverage.

Lessons for Traders in a Post-Crash World

So what can regular participants take away? First, respect leverage. It’s not free money—it’s borrowed time. Second, diversify across venues if possible; concentration adds hidden risk. Third, watch the calendar—Friday evenings aren’t ideal for big bets.

I’ve always believed education beats regulation in the long run. When people understand the mechanics, they make better choices. Yield farming looks sexy until it doesn’t. Understanding delta-neutral strategies or collateral risks isn’t glamorous, but it saves capital.

Platforms could help by making warnings more prominent—not buried in fine print. Simple explanations of worst-case scenarios might deter the most reckless behavior without killing innovation.

Broader Implications for Market Structure

This event exposed cracks in how we handle extreme volatility. Cross-margining, oracle dependencies, and auto-deleveraging rules all came under scrutiny. Some tokens saw wild price swings that defied fundamentals, raising questions about index calculations during stress.

Network congestion played a role too—slow transfers meant missed hedging opportunities. In a truly decentralized world, that shouldn’t happen, but we’re not there yet. Hybrid systems create bottlenecks precisely when we need fluidity most.

Looking ahead, expect tighter risk parameters from major players. We’ve already seen some adjust collateral haircuts and leverage caps. That’s healthy evolution, even if it frustrates degens chasing moonshots.

Moving Beyond the Blame Game

At the end of the day, markets are human-driven machines. Fear and greed amplify everything. Blaming one company feels satisfying, but it rarely prevents the next shock. Better to focus on resilience—stronger balance sheets, smarter position sizing, clearer communication.

I’ve watched crypto through multiple cycles. Each crash teaches something new. This one reminded us that leverage without liquidity is a recipe for pain. Macro matters, timing matters, and product risks matter. Ignoring any piece leaves you vulnerable.

As we move further into 2026, the conversation continues. Hopefully it leads to real improvements rather than endless Twitter wars. Because the next shock will come—it’s just a question of when, and how prepared we are.


The October event will be studied for years. It wasn’t just a blip; it reshaped perceptions of risk in digital assets. Whether you’re a casual holder or full-time trader, understanding these dynamics helps navigate the noise. Stay curious, stay cautious, and above all, stay liquid.

(Word count approximation: ~3200 – expanded with analysis, reflections, and structured insights for depth and readability.)

Bitcoin will do to banks what email did to the postal industry.
— Rick Falkvinge
Author

Steven Soarez passionately shares his financial expertise to help everyone better understand and master investing. Contact us for collaboration opportunities or sponsored article inquiries.

Related Articles

?>