Have you ever watched gold prices dance on a chart, wondering if they’ll soar or stumble? Last week, I found myself glued to my screen as XAUUSD, the gold-to-dollar pair, carved out a bearish path, slipping into the $3200s. It’s a wild ride, and this week’s forecast promises more twists. Let’s unpack what’s driving gold, where it might head next, and how you can navigate the market like a pro.
Gold’s Big Picture: What’s Happening?
Gold’s been on a rollercoaster, and it’s no surprise why. With global tensions cooling and tariff talks taking a backseat, investors are pivoting from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier bets like stocks or crypto. But don’t count gold out yet—its price action suggests it’s gearing up for something big. This week, we’re eyeing consolidation before a major economic event shakes things up.
Recapping Last Week’s Gold Moves
If you caught last week’s signals, you might’ve ridden a tidy profit. Selling XAUUSD between $3342 and $3353 triggered a jaw-dropping 1500+ point drop. Meanwhile, buying in the $3247-$3193 zone delivered a solid 900+ point gain. Those levels weren’t random—they were rooted in technical analysis, and they worked like a charm. But what’s next?
Gold doesn’t just follow charts; it reacts to the world’s pulse.
– Anonymous forex trader
The market’s buzzing with anticipation, and I’m betting this week’s price action will hinge on a few key events. Let’s dive into those first.
Key Economic Events to Watch
Gold thrives on uncertainty, and this week’s economic calendar is packed with catalysts that could spark volatility. Here’s what’s on deck:
- ISM Services PMI (Monday, May 5): This gauge of the U.S. services sector’s health can sway the dollar. A weak report might signal economic fragility, pushing gold higher as a safe haven.
- FOMC Press Conference (Wednesday, May 7): The Federal Reserve’s words carry weight. Any hint of rate hikes or policy shifts could send XAUUSD into a frenzy.
- Unemployment Claims (Thursday, May 8): Rising claims could stoke recession fears, making gold shine brighter.
These events aren’t just noise—they’re the heartbeat of the market. A stronger-than-expected PMI might bolster the dollar, pressuring gold prices, while dovish Fed comments could light a fire under XAUUSD. Keep your eyes peeled.
Technical Breakdown: Where’s Gold Headed?
Charts don’t lie, but they do whisper secrets if you listen closely. Gold’s weekly chart shows it’s licking its wounds after two bearish weeks, but signs of strength are emerging. A fair value gap (FVG) between $3194 and $3168 is begging to be filled, and that’s where I’m seeing a potential buying opportunity.
On the 4-hour chart, things get spicier. A bullish momentum is brewing around $3259-$3239, where a 4-hour FVG sits snugly below an order block. This zone also aligns with the value area low of the recent bearish swing—a textbook spot for buyers to step in.
But don’t get too cozy. Above $3300, a supply wall looms. The $3305-$3313 range, marked by a 1-hour bearish order block and the point of control (POC), screams resistance. Sellers could pounce here, making it a prime spot for a short trade.
Key Levels at a Glance
| Level Type | Price Range | Timeframe |
| Support | $3194-$3168 | Weekly |
| Support | $3259-$3239 | 4-Hour |
| Resistance | $3305-$3313 | 1-Hour |
Mark these levels on your chart—they’re your roadmap for the week. But how do you turn them into trades? Let’s talk strategy.
Trading Strategies for XAUUSD
Gold trading isn’t about gut feelings; it’s about stacking the odds in your favor. Here’s how I’d approach XAUUSD this week, blending higher timeframe (HTF) and lower timeframe (LTF) tactics for maximum edge.
Buy Strategy: Catching the Bounce
The weekly FVG at $3194-$3168 is a goldmine (pun intended) for buyers. If prices dip here, look for bullish confirmation—like a strong candlestick pattern or volume spike—before entering. The 4-hour FVG at $3259-$3239 is another sweet spot, especially if momentum picks up post-PMI or FOMC.
- Wait for price to enter the $3194-$3168 or $3259-$3239 zones.
- Confirm with a bullish signal (e.g., engulfing candle or RSI divergence).
- Target $3300 or higher, with a stop below the FVG.
Sell Strategy: Riding the Resistance
For sellers, the $3305-$3313 zone is where the action’s at. This level’s loaded with confluence—POC, bearish order block, and heavy supply. If prices stall here, especially after a hawkish Fed statement, a short trade could be a no-brainer.
- Monitor price action near $3305-$3313.
- Look for rejection signals (e.g., pin bar or declining volume).
- Aim for $3250 or lower, with a stop above $3313.
Here’s the kicker: always manage your risk. Gold’s volatility can be a blessing or a curse, so never bet the farm on a single trade. A 1-2% risk per position keeps you in the game.
Why Gold Still Matters
In a world obsessed with crypto and tech stocks, why bother with gold? For me, it’s about balance. Gold’s a safe-haven asset that thrives when chaos reigns—think recessions, geopolitical flare-ups, or policy missteps. Even with tariffs easing, the global economy’s far from stable. Gold’s a hedge, a stabilizer, and, frankly, a pretty reliable moneymaker if you play it right.
Gold’s not just a metal; it’s a mindset. It’s about preserving wealth when the world gets messy.
Plus, gold’s price action is a masterclass in technical trading. The FVGs, order blocks, and POCs we’re seeing aren’t just squiggles on a chart—they’re the market’s way of telling a story. And right now, that story’s screaming opportunity.
Risks and Considerations
Let’s keep it real: trading gold isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. The FOMC could throw a curveball, and a stronger dollar might squash any bullish hopes. Plus, if global risk appetite keeps climbing, gold could take a backseat. Always have a Plan B—whether it’s tightening your stops or diversifying into other assets.
Another thing? Don’t ignore the bigger picture. Gold’s weekly chart suggests a potential rally post-FVG fill, but if the $3168 support cracks, we could see a deeper pullback. Stay nimble and don’t marry your positions.
Wrapping It Up: Your Game Plan
So, what’s the play for May 5-9? Gold’s at a crossroads, with $3200 acting as a shaky floor and $3500 a distant dream. The economic calendar, especially the FOMC, will likely dictate the next big move. For now, focus on the levels: buy at $3194-$3168 or $3259-$3239, sell at $3305-$3313, and always keep risk in check.
Trading’s like a chess game—you’ve got to think three moves ahead. Use this forecast as your board, but trust your instincts and the charts to guide your hand. Got a hunch about gold’s next move? Drop it in the comments—I’d love to hear your take.
Disclosure: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
