Have you ever watched a coin you really believed in just… fall apart on the charts? That’s exactly what I’m feeling right now looking at XRP. One minute we’re talking about new ETFs and institutional interest, the next minute price is carving out lower high after lower high like it’s on a mission to punish every buyer who got excited above $2.50.
Today, December 1st 2025, XRP is sitting around $1.99 after bleeding nearly 10% in 24 hours. And honestly? The chart isn’t lying. This doesn’t look like a healthy dip anymore. It looks like the early stages of something uglier.
The Bearish Structure That’s Impossible to Ignore
Let me paint you the picture that’s been staring me in the face for days now.
Back when XRP finally broke above that multi-year $2.64 resistance – remember that? Everyone was calling for $5, $10, the usual crypto euphoria stuff. But something felt off even then. The breakout started looking exhausted almost immediately, and when price came back to test that former resistance… well, it wasn’t support anymore.
That’s how bearish order blocks are born.
The Order Block That Killed the Rally
When a major resistance level flips to support and then fails, it becomes what’s called a bearish order block – essentially a zone where big money previously defended price, but now they’re selling into rallies instead. For XRP, that zone sits right around $2.40-$2.60.
Every single time price has approached this area since the breakdown, it’s been met with aggressive selling. Not retail panic selling – this looks like smart money distribution. The wicks on those daily candles tell the whole story: buyers try to push higher, get within striking distance of the order block, and bam – instant rejection.
I’ve been trading long enough to know that when price respects a bearish order block this cleanly, the path of least resistance is almost always lower.
The 200-Day Moving Average Just Said No
If the order block wasn’t enough, the 200-day moving average has been acting like a brick wall.
Right now it’s sitting around $2.25 and sloping gently downward – exactly the kind of dynamic resistance that crushes momentum rallies. XRP has tagged this moving average multiple times over the past weeks and gotten rejected every single time. The most recent touch happened just yesterday, and the daily candle closed with a massive upper wick.
That’s not random noise. That’s the market telling you exactly where control sits.
- Price approaches 200-day MA → buying pressure appears
- Sellers step in aggressively → long upper wick forms
- Price closes well below the average → bears remain in control
Rinse and repeat. This pattern has played out four times now. At some point you have to respect what the market is telling you.
Lower Highs and Lower Lows – The Definition of a Downtrend
Let’s zoom out for a second because this is where it gets really ugly.
Since the local top around $2.90, XRP has been making a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows. This is literally the definition of a downtrend in technical analysis. Every rally has been weaker than the last, every bounce has failed at progressively lower levels.
The most recent lower high formed just last week when price couldn’t even reach the previous swing high before rolling over. That’s weakening momentum on steroids.
In a healthy bull market, you want to see higher highs and higher lows. When that structure breaks and you start printing lower highs while failing to make new highs… that’s when you know the bulls have lost control.
And right now? The bulls aren’t just losing control – they’ve left the building.
Where’s the Real Support? (Spoiler: It’s Way Lower)
Here’s what keeps me up at night when I look at this chart.
Between current price (~$2.00) and the next major support at $1.80, there’s basically nothing. A few minor volume nodes, some psychological levels at $1.90 and $1.85, but no real structural support until you get down to that $1.80 zone where price consolidated for weeks before the last major breakout.
That means if we lose $1.95-$2.00 convincingly? The path to $1.80 is wide open. And in this kind of momentum environment, that move could happen disturbingly fast.
I’ve seen these vacuum pockets before – price just falls through them because there’s no one left to buy. The buyers who wanted in at $2.10 got filled. The ones who wanted $2.05 got filled. Everyone who was going to FOMO in already did, and now they’re underwater and scared.
Volume Tells the Real Story
One thing that’s been particularly telling is the volume profile.
During the rally phases, volume was decent but never explosive. During the breakdowns? Volume has been picking up significantly. That tells you exactly who has conviction right now – the sellers.
The most recent drop through $2.10 happened on expanding volume, while the bounce attempts have been on declining volume. This is classic distribution pattern behavior.
| Phase | Volume Behavior | Implication |
| Rally to $2.90 | Moderate, steady | Some buying interest but no conviction |
| Breakdown below $2.64 | Increasing significantly | Strong selling pressure |
| Bounce attempts | Declining volume | Weak buying, no follow-through |
| Recent drop through $2.10 | Highest volume in weeks | Conviction selling |
The ETF News That Changed Nothing
Everyone got excited about the new XRP ETFs – Franklin Templeton filing, Bitwise seeing $25 million in first-day volume, all the usual institutional FOMO triggers.
But here’s the thing that experience has taught me: ETF news moves price when the technical structure supports it. When you’re in a clear downtrend with bearish order blocks and rejection from major moving averages? ETF news becomes a “sell the news” event.
That’s exactly what we’ve seen. The ETF announcements created brief spikes that were immediately sold into. The market is forward-looking – it’s already pricing in the institutional interest and saying “yeah, but not yet.”
What Would Change My Mind (The Bull Case)
Look, I’m not married to the bearish thesis. Markets change, and I’ll change with them. But right now, the bull case requires some very specific things to happen:
- A strong daily close back above the 200-day moving average (currently ~$2.25)
- Reclaiming the bearish order block with conviction (taking out $2.60)
- Higher highs and higher lows on decreasing selling volume
- A clear shift in momentum indicators (RSI breaking its downtrend, etc.)
Until I see those things? The risk/reward heavily favors the downside.
The $1.80 Target – Why It Makes Sense
So if this breakdown continues – and all signs point to yes – where does price actually find support?
The $1.80 zone is actually perfect for several reasons:
- It’s the origin of the most recent major breakout
- High volume was traded there during consolidation
- It aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move
- Psychological round number + previous resistance turned support
- The 365-day moving average is rising toward this area
In other words? This is where smart money is likely to step in and defend if they still believe in the longer-term story.
I’ve found that these kinds of retests – coming all the way back to the origin of a breakout – are actually incredibly healthy for the long-term structure. Painful? Absolutely. Necessary? Often yes.
Final Thoughts – Managing Risk in a Falling Knife
If you’re holding XRP right now, the honest truth is that the technical picture is ugly. The structure is bearish, momentum is downward, and there’s very little support until $1.80.
That doesn’t mean XRP is dead or that the Ripple story is broken. It just means the market is doing what it always does – shaking out weak hands before the next leg up.
The question is whether you’re willing to weather this storm, or if you’d rather preserve capital and buy back lower. Both are valid strategies. But pretending the chart isn’t screaming caution right now? That’s how accounts get destroyed.
For now, $1.80 remains the line in the sand. Hold there with volume and we probably get a monster bounce. Break it and… well, that’s a conversation for another day.
Either way, the next few weeks are going to be fascinating. And probably painful for a lot of people who bought the top.
Welcome to crypto.
