Have you ever watched a coin sit completely still while every single indicator around it starts screaming “buy”? That’s exactly what XRP is doing right now, and honestly, it’s giving me serious déjà vu from the 2020-2021 run.
The price is glued to $2.20 like it’s scared to move, yet underneath the surface everything is lining up for something big. I’m talking Supertrend flipping green, ETF money pouring in like it’s free, and a chart pattern that textbook traders dream about. Let’s unpack this properly.
The Calm Before the Next XRP Storm?
Right now XRP is trading in the tightest range it’s seen in weeks. After touching $1.81 on November 21st, it bounced hard, reclaimed the key 23.6% Fibonacci level, and has basically refused to go lower. Most coins would be all over the place in this macro environment, but XRP? It’s acting like it knows something we don’t.
In my experience, when a major altcoin consolidates this hard after a 150%+ move, one of two things happens: either it cracks and bleeds with the market, or it explodes higher once the dust settles. Given what I’m seeing on-chain and in the ETF data, I’m leaning heavily toward the second scenario.
Supertrend Finally Turns Green – And It Actually Matters This Time
For the technical traders reading this, the eight-hour Supertrend indicator just flipped bullish for the first time since early November. If you’re not familiar, the Supertrend is basically a lazy man’s trend filter – when it’s green, you stay out; when it’s green, you pay attention.
What makes this flip interesting is the context. We’re getting the green signal while price is still inside the consolidation zone, not after a breakout. That usually means the move higher has serious conviction behind it because the algorithm had to fight through sideways chop to change color.
“Supertrend flips during consolidation rather than after breakout often precede the strongest trends.”
– Something every price action trader learns the hard way
ETF Inflows Are Absolutely Wild Right Now
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – the spot XRP ETFs in the United States are inhaling tokens faster than most people expected.
Last week alone we saw $243 million in net inflows. That’s up from $179 million the week before. Think about that for a second: while retail traders argue on Twitter about whether XRP is dead, institutions are quietly stacking hundreds of millions.
- Canary XRP ETF – $340 million AUM
- Bitwise XRP ETF – $178 million AUM
- Franklin Templeton – $85 million AUM
- Grayscale XRP Trust (converted) – $83 million AUM
And this is just the beginning. More issuers are waiting in the wings, and every week another major wealth platform adds XRP exposure for their clients. The Wall Street money printer goes brrr, but this time it’s pointed directly at Ripple’s token.
I’ve been in crypto since 2017. I watched Bitcoin ETFs change everything in 2024. The same movie is playing out with XRP right now, just six months behind schedule.
That Bullish Flag Pattern Is Textbook
Zoom out to the daily or eight-hour chart and you can’t miss it – XRP has printed one of the cleanest bullish flag patterns I’ve seen this cycle.
For the non-chart nerds: a bullish flag is what happens when price shoots straight up (the pole), then consolidates in a tight downward-sloping channel (the flag). When it breaks out upward, the measured move is usually the length of the pole added to the breakout point.
In XRP’s case, the pole was roughly $1.60 (from $0.80 lows to $2.40 highs). Add that to a breakout above $2.30 and you’re looking at $3.90–$4.00 as a realistic target. Even a conservative move puts $3 squarely on the table.
The beautiful part? We’re testing the upper boundary of the flag right now. One strong daily close above $2.30 and the pattern confirms.
RLUSD Stablecoin Growth – The Hidden Catalyst
Most XRP articles completely ignore this, but Ripple’s own stablecoin RLUSD is growing like crazy. Supply just crossed $1.3 billion, and 30-day transaction volume is north of $3.6 billion.
Why does this matter? Because every RLUSD transaction on the XRP Ledger burns a tiny amount of XRP as a fee. More volume = more XRP burned = slightly deflationary pressure over time. It’s not going to 10x the price tomorrow, but it’s a tailwind most people aren’t pricing in.
More importantly, it proves the network isn’t just a remittance rail anymore – it’s becoming real DeFi infrastructure. That narrative shift alone could bring a whole new wave of capital.
Yes, There Are Risks (Let’s Be Real)
I wouldn’t be doing my job if I pretended this is all sunshine and rainbows. There are legitimate concerns.
- Whales have been distributing heavily in recent weeks – someone is taking profits
- XRP Ledger daily transactions have actually dropped from their peak
- Burn rate is near cycle lows
- Bitcoin dominance is still above 60% – altseason isn’t confirmed yet
Any one of these could delay the breakout or cause a deeper retrace. But here’s the thing: strong projects consolidate through distribution. The fact that price hasn’t cracked lower despite whale selling actually makes me more bullish, not less.
Price Targets – Where Could XRP Realistically Go?
Short term (next 2–4 weeks):
- $2.46 – 50% Fibonacci retracement (first major resistance)
- $2.70 – Previous all-time high zone
- $3.00 – Psychological round number + flag target
Medium term (Q1 2026):
- $4.00+ if we get full-blown altseason
- $5–$7 if ETF inflows keep accelerating and RLUSD hits $5B+
Obviously these are just levels I’m watching. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, etc.
Final Thoughts – Why I’m Paying Attention
Look, I’ve been burned by XRP pumps before. We all have. But this setup feels different. The combination of institutional inflows, technical confluence, and actual network utility growth is something we haven’t seen at this scale before.
The price might stay boring for another week or two. That’s fine. Some of the best trades need time to breathe. But when this flag finally breaks – and I believe it will – the move could be violent to the upside.
Until then, I’m watching $2.30 like a hawk. One clean break and close above that level on decent volume, and I think we’re off to the races again.
Stay safe out there.
